Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

It was an issue here (Finland) after first LFP cars came last year, but Tesla quite quickly solved it with a software update.
Now I believe they function as well as other packs, with the added benefit that you can (and should) charge to 100% daily.

I guess most of us recall the initial LFP debacle, but the importance of what I highlighted above cannot be overstated

To date, Tesla are the only car manufacturer that has real OTA capability, imagine if VW put out an LFP vehicle, sold 100k of them (in their dreams, I know), then discovered issues in the real world, requiring a FW update - it would be a nightmare, although TBH, I'm not even sure VW would have the wherewithal to understand, never mind remedy the problem, they'd probably end up replacing the packs completely

Tesla are so far ahead it's embarrassing, and most people are completely unaware of this - knowledge = advantage for investors

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Elon Musk's water filters for schools in Flint are almost ready

Elon Musk donated $480,000 to fund new water filtration systems for Flint, Michigan schools following the city's infamous water crisis.

www.google.com

“Elon Musk donated $480,000 in 2018 to fund new filtration systems for schools and administrative buildings in Flint, Michigan. Almost three years later, they're in the final stages of production, flint beat reports.“

“The next step is to connect the filters to the district's plumbing and test the water coming out of the fountains for lead and other bacteria.”

Nice to see some positive coverage of Elon’s efforts to make the world a better place.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA up the normal 2x vs macros early in the Pre-market.

Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)​

CME - CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,324.50 +49.75 (+0.33%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Aug 27, 2021 05:37 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$705.05 +3.89 (+0.55%)
Pre-Market Volume	16,439
Pre-Market High	$705.88 (05:10:01 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$703.21 (04:12:20 AM)

 

[H Mak]

They didn't mention this at AI day

 

[dl003]

why do complicated math? do easy math, then convert

instead of $1,000 just buy 1,000 shares (17x) for $17,000
you now have 5,000 shares, 5:1 split (1/2 a block of shares) (weep)

5,000 x $700 = $3,500,000 (roughly)
so $17,000 becomes $3,500,000
(it’s way easier just shifting decimal points)
so
3,500/17 = 205.88
~$205.88 for every $1.00 (weep) for a _simple_ buy and HODL
no iron condors, leaps, spread eagles, anythin, just hodl

Here me out:
a 20,000% return over 11 years works itself out to about a 150% annually (your money 2.5x every year). Thats a staggering number.
However, lets see what happens if you can just earn an additional 1% on your capital every week and plow it back into more shares. The annual return will then be 200% (your money 3x every year instead). The difference might not look that big at first, but over the course of 11 years, your total return would over 177,000% (1777x), roughly 8.5x the original.

Of course there are risks involved.

 

[jschwefel]

Max Pain now at $700

 

[22522]

Link to reply anchor in humanoid robot forum Tesla humanoid robot

 

[jw934]

$TSLA should jump up a notch between Q3 P&D numbers and on or shortly after Q3 earnings once the additional profit from the margin lift from the Y is revealed.

The fact that the Y is cheaper to make, but sells for more than the M3 was stated on an earlier earnings call, if I remember correctly.

 

[st_lopes]

Now have some dinner bets with a former colleague who used to be a bull, but is now short the stock:

1. That M-Y will outsell the Corolla over a trailing 12 month period before the end of 2023;
2. That Cybertruck will be best selling truck over a trailing 12 month period before the end of 2025;
3. That Tesla will produce more than 20M vehicles in 2030;

Stakes are dinners in our respective cities (on opposite coasts). I also offered to sell him some puts. This is going to be a wild decade.

 

[jschwefel]

Max Pain now at $700

I should have said “…officially at $700.” @Artful Dodger called $700 earlier.

Always appreciate your insights Dodger.

 

[Unpilot]

Please FSM let there be large volume of buyers today to swamp the attempts to keep SP at 700.

 

[Nocturnal]

My local SC has asked the Tesla club to assist in deliveries again, starting this weekend and all weekends in September. Q3 deliveries and earnings are going to be lots of fun.

 

[The Accountant]

Here are my thoughts:
In Q1, Production & Deliveries (P&D) were awesome but the financials were so-so.
In Q2, I believe we will see P&D so-so (near consensus) but the financials will be awesome.

In Q1 we saw the Selling Price (SP) rise after the P&D was released and then the SP went down after Earnings were released (Apr 26)
In Q2, my gut tells me we will see the SP flat to down after P&D but start to rise when the strong Earnings are released in late July.

Not financial advice....yada yada.

The reason for P&D coming in so-so, is that it looks to me that some of June's production in Shanghai will be exported and not counted as a sale until Q3.
So really no issue for the full year but we can see some Q2 sales shift to Q3. It all depends how the Analysts spin this.
I would love to see an epic P&D report but I am not positioning myself for this.

Just updating my post from last quarter.

Q1:
Deliveries - were Awesome
Earnings - were So So

Q2:
Deliveries - were So So
Earnings - were Awesome

Q3 Prediction:
Deliveries - Awesome
Earnings - Awesome

I am betting the Exacta for Q3.

Deliveries
There is much negative noise on deliveries (chip shortage, logistics, 4 day shutdown at Shanghai, Fremont not prioritizing Model 3, the Model S temp car lot has the same amount of cars, etc.). These are all Red Herrings. The chip shortage is a hedge thrown out there by Elon but Tesla will work around this as they have so far done so. The 4 day shutdown in Shanghai was in preparation for Model Y SR changeover. Reported July production for China was strong and there are now reports of 1,000 Model Ys per day at SHG. There is evidence of a pick up in Model S deliveries despite the temp car lot inactivity. Shipping activity for the month looks strong.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 deliveries.

Earnings
There is some negative noise on earnings. In fact, James Stephenson a Tesla bull (@ICannot_Enough on twitter), predicts Q3 earnings flat to Q2. Q3 Red Herrings include the lower priced China Model Y SR introduction, 48m charge for early paydown of debt, lower Reg Credits and higher logistics costs.
But all this noise is easily offset by the positive developments which include an additional 25k-30k cars delivered vs Q2, an increase in higher priced Model Y deliveries in EU and NA, higher deliveries of high priced Model S in NA vs Q2 and higher output from the low cost SGH factory.
I suspect Tesla Energy may surprise as well as we saw a nice turnaround in Q2 and I expect this trend to continue.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 earnings.

 

[thx1139]

Just updating my post from last quarter.

Q1:
Deliveries - were Awesome
Earnings - were So So

Q2:
Deliveries - were So So
Earnings - were Awesome

Q3 Prediction:
Deliveries - Awesome
Earnings - Awesome

I am betting the Exacta for Q3.

Deliveries
There is much negative noise on deliveries (chip shortage, logistics, 4 day shutdown at Shanghai, Fremont not prioritizing Model 3, the Model S temp car lot has the same amount of cars, etc.). These are all Red Herrings. The chip shortage is a hedge thrown out there by Elon but Tesla will work around this as they have so far done so. The 4 day shutdown in Shanghai was in preparation for Model Y SR changeover. Reported July production for China was strong and there are now reports of 1,000 Model Ys per day at SHG. There is evidence of a pick up in Model S deliveries despite the temp car lot inactivity. Shipping activity for the month looks strong.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 deliveries.

Earnings
There is some negative noise on earnings. In fact, James Stephenson a Tesla bull (@ICannot_Enough on twitter), predicts Q3 earnings flat to Q2. Q3 Red Herrings include the lower priced China Model Y SR introduction, 48m charge for early paydown of debt, lower Reg Credits and higher logistics costs.
But all this noise is easily offset but the positive developments which include an additional 25k-30k cars delivered vs Q2, an increase in higher priced Model Y deliveries in EU and NA, higher deliveries of high priced Model S in NA vs Q2 and higher output from the low cost SGH factory.
I suspect Tesla Energy may surprise as well as we saw a nice turnaround in Q2 and I expect this trend to continue.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 earnings.

Also if I recall correctly didnt we leave Q2 with a decent amount of inventory that hadnt been delivered yet. So that gives a boost to earnings as well or am I thinking incorrectly?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just updating my post from last quarter.

Q1:
Deliveries - were Awesome
Earnings - were So So

Q2:
Deliveries - were So So
Earnings - were Awesome

Q3 Prediction:
Deliveries - Awesome
Earnings - Awesome

I am betting the Exacta for Q3.

Deliveries
There is much negative noise on deliveries (chip shortage, logistics, 4 day shutdown at Shanghai, Fremont not prioritizing Model 3, the Model S temp car lot has the same amount of cars, etc.). These are all Red Herrings. The chip shortage is a hedge thrown out there by Elon but Tesla will work around this as they have so far done so. The 4 day shutdown in Shanghai was in preparation for Model Y SR changeover. Reported July production for China was strong and there are now reports of 1,000 Model Ys per day at SHG. There is evidence of a pick up in Model S deliveries despite the temp car lot inactivity. Shipping activity for the month looks strong.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 deliveries.

Earnings
There is some negative noise on earnings. In fact, James Stephenson a Tesla bull (@ICannot_Enough on twitter), predicts Q3 earnings flat to Q2. Q3 Red Herrings include the lower priced China Model Y SR introduction, 48m charge for early paydown of debt, lower Reg Credits and higher logistics costs.
But all this noise is easily offset but the positive developments which include an additional 25k-30k cars delivered vs Q2, an increase in higher priced Model Y deliveries in EU and NA, higher deliveries of high priced Model S in NA vs Q2 and higher output from the low cost SGH factory.
I suspect Tesla Energy may surprise as well as we saw a nice turnaround in Q2 and I expect this trend to continue.
I am feeling bullish on Q3 earnings.

Huh I guess I very much disagree with James Stephenson here:

- logistics costs will be lower in Q3 thanks to all US production not going on ships
- all Tesla’s on ships now are the ones made out of China which have better margin.
- China SR Model Y doesn’t mean less margin, just less revenue per car. Fundamentally, as long as Giga China produces more in Q3 than Q2, earnings will be higher from Giga China
- credit revenue was at a 2 year low for Q2, much more likely that it goes back up to its average which is about 100 million more than Q2
- we also have the report to that Tesla received 400 million in Chinese ev credits in Q3 from their 2020 sales

As for why I think Q3 earnings will be potentially 50% higher

- 30-40k more deliveries
- 10k more S sales
- model S margins go from negative in Q2 to very positive
- 400 million Chinese ev credit payout
- 2-3k in price hikes taking affect in Q3 that we’re not there on Q2
- better logistics efficiency due to al Europe deliveries coming from China
- continual improvement in margins for energy and services

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Meanwhile.....

 

[The Accountant]

Also if I recall correctly didnt we leave Q2 with a decent amount of inventory that hadnt been delivered yet. So that gives a boost to earnings as well or am I thinking incorrectly?

Yes you're correct. We could see deliveries higher than production as Tesla may draw down some of its inventory at quarter end.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please FSM let there be large volume of buyers today to swamp the attempts to keep SP at 700.

Um, isn't there a separate 'Pastafarianism' forum already? @Buckminster ?

/s

 

[Singuy]

Fed said "much ground to cover before rate hikes". Rip Michael Burry

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am feeling bullish on Q3 earnings.

Plus, you forgot that Elon won't be on the Q3 Earnings call (unless there's news). That's gotta be worth 5 Bill's, minimum. /s

(Elon: luv ya, brother!)

Cheers!