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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don't be surprised when the Model Y is released with the LFP pack. It's coming too, just a question of how fast they ramp Giga Texas. The LFP packs will be needed to free up Giga Nevada 2170 NMC cell supply for Austin's initial production (until their own 4680s are ready).

Well, that surprise didn't last long!


Sounds like 290 mile range from a Model Y SR is possible, and even the $5K CAD tax rebate is in play now for the 7-seater Model Y (mostly depends on the USD/CAD exchange rate, I think). Sales will be monstrous.

Corona, Corolla, Tequila, Takillya. I wouldn't want to be in Toyoda's sandals... :p

Cheers!
 
Flanders (the dutch speaking half of Belgium) will change the way the electric grid costs are distributed over their clients. Part of the electricity cost will be determined by the maximum power used by a client. This in order to limit the expected grid expansion costs potentially needed by increased use of heat pumps and electric cars on the consumption side, and less predictable electricity production by solar and wind on the production side.
This upcoming change caused a lot of FUD with ICE proponents claiming the cost to charge an electric car would increase significantly. Yesterday the grid authority released a simulation tool, and it turns out the electricity cost for heat pump and EV owners would go down: Vreg laat alleenstaande meer en Tesla-rijder minder betalen
As you can see, the newspaper spelled EV as ‘Tesla’.
For me, the change will be that the somewhat cheaper nightly electricity rate (used to charge our cars) will disappear, and replaced with a somewhat lower rate, with a surcharge depending on how fast I want to charge. It will mean that I will plug in our cars every time the car is at home, and charge at a low power rate, rather than having scheduled nightly charges at 11kW.
 
Hey I mean it helps Tesla's valuation.......makes TSLA look like a bargain at it's current valuation lol
If bargain you mean: having multiple car and battery factories, orders exceeding production, solar roof solution, developing own supercomputer system for FSD training, YOY growth, sales, and continued profits, then yeah TSLA is a bargain. But those are only metrics for a simpleton such as myself and this is definitely not an advice...
 
Max pain is a crude approximation: it is skewed by including many contracts at strike prices that are outside the range of possible end-of-week SP finishes. For example, the $1 puts that show up in the 10s of thousands on big expiry dates aren't serious puts: they are created to lower the margin requirements for OTM calls, and thus are evidence of an underlying BULLISH position (not advice - ask a Pro).

The fight is for $700 because (yesterday) there were 13,570 open Put contracts at that strike. If the SP were to finish below $700 on Friday, then MMs would have to pay out the difference in cash to the holders of all those options. Further, there were 13,275 Call contracts, so MMs can't let it go too far above that price either, or they pay for that.

This is the what my experimental "C-P analysis" (Call - Put) tries to capture. It's simple, fast, and fairly robust in the absence of market-moving news (or FUD/Bare raids).

More data will come out at 07:00 ET on Friday morning (last OI update for 08/27 expiries).

Cheers!
(First Mods,
I tried to contact the member through a PM but he has his setting such that he only allows certain members to see his profile(?). So I have to do it here.)
"Dodger's Dodginess" for a title
Mr Dodger,
I value your insight and perspective concerning MM manipulation of the stock price. And the post above is exactly what I'd like for you to post on a regular basis where I won't miss it. To often in this thread their is mine and many others mindless drivel and attempt at humor or a unique insight.
Would you please start a Thread similar to PappaFox's?
And if it needs the Mods to allow it, will the Mods help set it up?
 
If bargain you mean: having multiple car and battery factories, orders exceeding production, solar roof solution, developing own supercomputer system for FSD training, YOY growth, sales, and continued profits, then yeah TSLA is a bargain. But those are only metrics for a simpleton such as myself and this is definitely not an advice...

But but delivery vans!
 
Impressive timing, Lodger!
Happened 4/5 days in each of the past 3 weeks, and 5/5 days 4 weeks ago.

That's impressive. /s

That's just MM's pushing down SP to max pain of $700 for today's close. Super low volume so it's done fairly easily. Same thing last week.

... and the past month worth of weeks:

TSLA.5-Day.2021-08-06.png

TSLA.5-Day.2021-08-13.png

TSLA.5-Day.2021-08-20.png

TSLA.5-Day.2021-08-27.png

"Ground Day is just once a year, isn't it?"
-- Phil Conners
 
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Flanders (the dutch speaking half of Belgium) will change the way the electric grid costs are distributed over their clients. Part of the electricity cost will be determined by the maximum power used by a client. This in order to limit the expected grid expansion costs potentially needed by increased use of heat pumps and electric cars on the consumption side, and less predictable electricity production by solar and wind on the production side.
This upcoming change caused a lot of FUD with ICE proponents claiming the cost to charge an electric car would increase significantly. Yesterday the grid authority released a simulation tool, and it turns out the electricity cost for heat pump and EV owners would go down: Vreg laat alleenstaande meer en Tesla-rijder minder betalen
As you can see, the newspaper spelled EV as ‘Tesla’.
For me, the change will be that the somewhat cheaper nightly electricity rate (used to charge our cars) will disappear, and replaced with a somewhat lower rate, with a surcharge depending on how fast I want to charge. It will mean that I will plug in our cars every time the car is at home, and charge at a low power rate, rather than having scheduled nightly charges at 11kW.

Nice to see your country putting some innovation into electricity pricing....over here in Germany, all they can do is work out how to add additional taxes / surcharges / levies on what is some of the cheapest electricity in Europe at it's base exchange price.

Current consumer/retail pricing is edging towards averages of €0.35 / kWh - $0.42 / kWh with no relevant TOU, net metering etc. options to make driving an EV reasonably cheaper than gas. Base exchange price is €0.048 - $0.058, so that's €0.30 or 87% of taxes/levies/surcharges !

Tesla SuC cost is €0.40 / kWh - $0.48 ( or free....). Not bad I think, relative to charging at home.
 
So what is the reason MM picks on Tesla mainly? I have other high growth tech stocks and doesn't have as much capping as Tsla and they are also high volume known names with lots of option contracts being sold/bought. AMD being an example, which is known as the original meme stock so it has plenty of popularity. Also MM is not capping meme stocks in general. Way more money gets traded via Tesla than AMC and we see that stock going all over the place without any sort of control by MM.
A comic was posted over a week ago on here with one guy being frustrated and stating that, "the stock market is supposed to work by good companies with good profit should move their stock higher."!?
And then there was the guy in the comic answering him by stating some real far-out, but realistic, answer about "how through hundreds of years of guys with money and brains trying to play the market they have created an incomprehensible of the market of many twisted ways to make money in the market. Thus causing the SP's to move for no apparent reason...or to not move when it seems it should.

And now that is how I look at it. Multiple games being played by far smarter and influential (rich) players than me.
I'll give you an example that I understand. 35 yrs ago I went to a horse track for the first time. Santa Anita. The girl that took me there had worked as a waitress at the local high end bar/restaurant where the horse crowd frequented. I think it could have been called "The Derby"(?).
Anyway, she was a stunner, but knew nothing about horses, and everything about people.
Me being quite the cowboy from Alabama i figured I could look at a group of horses and tell which would win. I bet my eye. I lost she won... by the third race she convinced me. She knew the jockeys from slingin' drinks (among other things.I am sure. She was a 6 ft Italian bombshell), and was a great conversationalist...among other things. So she bet the jockey. I now know that is a common strategy, but I was young-ish back then. Of course we left flush with cash.
And that my friend is how you make money in the stock market. You make yourself so attractive that a girl that is desired by the group that controls what you are interested in gives you a better way to look at that group...even if it does not make sense to begin with...
Clarification: I am not saying Dodger is a six foot Italian Bombshell, not have I ever met him.
Another way to look at it is the fastest horse does not win as often as the best jockey.
And another way to look at it is that the best jockeys are in demand, and therefore have more choices on which horse they want to ride. And since most jockeys get paid more if the horse they ride wins then a jockey (Which has greater resources to determine which horse will win since he is friends with all the people at the track) will choose to ride the most likely winner in that race based on a much better set of criteria.
 
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Here me out:
a 20,000% return over 11 years works itself out to about a 150% annually (your money 2.5x every year). Thats a staggering number.
However, lets see what happens if you can just earn an additional 1% on your capital every week and plow it back into more shares. The annual return will then be 200% (your money 3x every year instead). The difference might not look that big at first, but over the course of 11 years, your total return would over 177,000% (1777x), roughly 8.5x the original.

Of course there are risks involved.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Of course there are potential surprises involved (that's the "risk"). The danger of picking up pennies in front of steam roller is that it threatens that 20,000% return that you are leveraging to (hopefully) provide that 1% each and every week (and also using to calculate your expected 177,000% return after 11 years).

To get to the projected returns requires that plan to harvest 1% every week works every single time for 572 weeks in a row. Human mental frailty is such that our minds tend to discount such risks beyond that which is justified by the actual statistics. Yes, humans are terrible at judging this kind of risk (and the potential consequences) because our brains evolved to manage a different kind of risk. However, we think we are not mentally frail. We have the illusion of being mentally robust. This is a dangerous combination that causes people to estimate that picking these pennies up is a good idea because they haven't done the statistical analysis in a meaningfully accurate manner.

I'm not a big fan of the "efficient market" theory but it applies here in that if this really was "free" money the market makers and other market participants would be taking better advantage of it and the gains would vanish. People make up lots of silly and ignorant excuses:

But I've tried it and it really does work.
No, the odds are in my favor because I've become the market maker when I'm the one selling the contracts.
If my shares get called away, I'm not really losing anything I didn't already have.
I can just keep rolling them forward to avoid taking the hit.

This is not to say one can't add to their gains by making a long strings of good calls, it's just to say the gains are not automatic, you still have to be successful in avoiding the pitfalls. The risks of disrupting your gains are very real but humans are ill-equipped to do the statistical analysis using seat-of-the-pants methods because they tend to employ handy excuses like "That's OK, I didn't lose anything that I already had". People fool themselves all the time and it can look very convincing to other humans because we have this weakness built-in. It's evolutionary in nature. It also explains why dead investors have higher returns than alive investors. Because dead investors have successfully neutralized their built-in evolutionary weakness. Too bad it took the loss of their actual life to achieve this rather than it being a conscious choice. Investors who understand it can neutralize their evolutionary weakness and the first step is to recognize that it exists. That they are ill-equipped to calculate and properly weight all the future ramifications in their heads.
 
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