Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
Beta will be removed as soon as FSD got regulatory approval. Country by Country, State by State.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Data "due" one business day before the expected date for the Q3 Earnings Call (Mon, Oct 26).
For this to stand up to legal challenges, the NHTSA must make this same request for to all Manufacturers for their SAE Level 2 Driver Assist products, (which by the way are NOT required to "react to Emergency Vehicles"; that's Level 3+):
- Level 2 ("hands off"): The automated system takes full control of the vehicle: accelerating, braking, and steering. The driver must monitor the driving and be prepared to intervene immediately at any time if the automated system fails to respond properly.
- Level 3 ("eyes off"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, e.g. the driver can text or watch a movie. The vehicle will handle situations that call for an immediate response, like emergency braking.
Only the Financial+Motoring Press (and now the NHTSA) confuses the two capabilities. Can Tesla be held responsible for the LIES told by the Press? How about fraud committed against Tesla to impune their technology? (yes, it took more than 2 whole years to expose the Model X lake fire fraud).
This is a case of "failing to deliver" something Tesla never promised. I expect this whole mess is headed to Court. And if Telsa DOES deliver data to the NHTSA, I hope it's under a court order which places the same burden of reporting on ALL manufacturers, not just singling out one for purely motivated reporting requirements.
Then of course, CONSUMER REPORTS (which quickly provided the "COMPLETE IDIOT'S Guide to short-curcuiting Tesla Driver Monitoring systems") will never see a day in court. Where's the bloddy' NHTSA? And the FCC? And the DOJ?
#LAWSUIT
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA down vs macros (as expected) after latest NHTSA drama: (MMs had to have their $730)
15,640.50 +31.25 (+0.20%)
Data last updated Sep 02, 2021 05:56 AM ET.
Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)
CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD15,640.50 +31.25 (+0.20%)
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Disagree. Having served on several Boards, I believe every good Board wants the Executive to succeed. They help this endeavour by identifying gaps and risks is what the Executive plans to do, or missed opportunities it should do. The Board draws on its independent experience to provide perspective and insight that the Executive lacks. That may become adversarial, but not necessarily so. A smart Executive leverages the experience of its Board.
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Remember the VW ID3 burning down in The Netherlands a few weeks ago?
Interesting read on how the follow-up has been.
Looks to me like the owner signed a non-disclosure contract about the follow-up by VW.
Well, at least the Dutch government takes (in this) a firm stand on EV's based on research and doesn't go into politically motivated investigations.
And that's a very good thing.
Apparently no-one is investigating the VW iID3 fire in The Netherlands
Interesting read on how the follow-up has been.
Looks to me like the owner signed a non-disclosure contract about the follow-up by VW.
Well, at least the Dutch government takes (in this) a firm stand on EV's based on research and doesn't go into politically motivated investigations.
And that's a very good thing.
Apparently no-one is investigating the VW iID3 fire in The Netherlands
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Cathie Wood’s tweet has a few thousand likes and 500 retweets.
The idea that new ICE cars will have no resale value is powerful. Like a golden cross, as soon as it is widely understood to be true, it *is* true.
Consider liking and retweeting (to hasten the inevitable).
Cheers
The idea that new ICE cars will have no resale value is powerful. Like a golden cross, as soon as it is widely understood to be true, it *is* true.
Consider liking and retweeting (to hasten the inevitable).
Cheers
I don’t know, man… that tweet seems misleading in a lot of ways. Recently, BMW appeared to claim they’re growing BEV deliveries faster than Tesla… because going from 7 units to 12 is a really big percentage increase, I guess. Well, is Cathie quoting the percent growth of EVs any different? Going from 1% to 2% of the market is a 100% increase but really doesn’t matter that much in the big picture (also, the drop in ICE sales makes even steady BEV numbers look like growth when you’re quoting market share numbers).
It‘s also completely ignoring the new and used car prices and vehicle time on dealer lots. It seems pretty clear from those numbers that ICE demand is red hot and it’s really a supply problem.
I would like as much as anyone for “consumers” to abandon gas cars for electric, but I don’t see it happening anecdotally either. The people I know with EVs love them, the people I know without EVs generally keep buying ICE cars, without inquiring with the EV owners. Some profess to love Teslas yet when they need a new vehicle, buy a RAV-4. Probably the huge wait on the Model Y isn’t helping that!
It would be fine to spread the numbers on total cost of ownership, and the potential for future lower resale value. I think those are pretty abstract, though — future problems compared to higher cost and lower availability TODAY. The resale might not even matter when cars are going to be kept for a long time and handed down to teenage kids, or whatever.
It might be better to pitch how EVs are awesomer — and not just Tesla performance, because these people aren’t buying performance cars instead. No more gas stations, no more dealerships and oil changes, better safety ratings, way better infotainment, OTA updates that improve the car, autopilot, using the app to warm/cool or locate the car, and so on. I think those are the things that make someone WANT a car, not the math on possible future resale value (and not, in the case of my neighbors, the 0-60 time).
ZachF
Active Member
COVID/2020/2021 has really brought to light all the weaknesses of relying on a giant global JIT system and excess outsourcing, and shown the strength/resilience of more vertically integrated companies like Tesla and SX.
In August 2012 3.6% of cars sold in Norway were electric. This August 71.9% were electric.
I believe the transition will go faster in other countries since there are more BEVs on the market and it's not only for die hard enthusiasts any more.
According to Cathie that may no longer be the case:
ZachF
Active Member
Something to consider with all the chip fab talk:
There is significant political pressure now to move chip manufacturing back into the US. I would not be surprised if there are large incentives in the infrastructure bill that would make building a chip fab cost Tesla way less than the sticker price. Tesla could also partner with someone like TSMC/Samsung (like they partnered with Panasonic for Giga Nevada) if they thought they wouldn't need the whole capacity.
There is significant political pressure now to move chip manufacturing back into the US. I would not be surprised if there are large incentives in the infrastructure bill that would make building a chip fab cost Tesla way less than the sticker price. Tesla could also partner with someone like TSMC/Samsung (like they partnered with Panasonic for Giga Nevada) if they thought they wouldn't need the whole capacity.
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Don TLR
Active Member
Andrew Karpathy retweeted this out so maybe they’re thinking of producing some of their own parts. Oh and look at their stock,, WOW!
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What Cathie Woods is referring to is a well known phenomenon that occurs when a disruptive new technology appears on the market -> on the cusp of mass adoption of the new technology, sales of the old technology begin to slump as consumers put off their purchases until “the one they want” is available. This could be cost or some other feature. Folks discussing her tweet have put too much emphasis on resale value - that is premature but will enter the zeitgeist by the end of the decade, which will be the last nail in the ICE coffin
According to insideevs, Plug-in EV sales almost doubled from H1 2020 to H1 2021 (1.5% to 2.5%). US: All-Electric Car Market Share Expands To 2.5% In H1 2021
If this growth rate continues, we could expect EV sales to make up 4 % in 2022, 7% in 2023, 11% in 2024, 20% in 2025. The EV buyers 2-3 years out are thinking about their next car purchase now, at some level. For every EV buyer in 2021, there are probably many more consumers who are putting off buying a new car until a $25k EV is on the market.
A consumer reports survey supports this:
Consumer Reports Survey Shows Strong Interest in Electric Cars - Consumer Reports
A new nationwide survey by Consumer Reports reveals the interest in electric cars, and the concerns for some potential buyers.
My anecdotal experience supports this too. A surprising number of people who were in shock and awe when I bought a Model S in 2017 bought an EV this year. Several other friends mentioned waiting for a cheaper EV before they get a new car.
As for BMW, that’s a poor comparison. EV sales (and Tesla sales) have been growing exponentially for a decade. Good luck to BMW to follow in Tesla’s footsteps- from a global perspective
The Accountant
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
What Cathie Woods is referring to is a well known phenomenon that occurs when a disruptive new technology appears on the market -> on the cusp of mass adoption of the new technology, sales of the old technology begin to slump as consumers put off their purchases until “the one they want” is available. This could be cost or some other feature. Folks discussing her tweet have put too much emphasis on resale value - that is premature but will enter the zeitgeist by the end of the decade, which will be the last nail in the ICE coffin
According to insideevs, Plug-in EV sales almost doubled from H1 2020 to H1 2021 (1.5% to 2.5%). US: All-Electric Car Market Share Expands To 2.5% In H1 2021
If this growth rate continues, we could expect EV sales to make up 4 % in 2022, 7% in 2023, 11% in 2024, 20% in 2025. The EV buyers 2-3 years out are thinking about their next car purchase now, at some level. For every EV buyer in 2021, there are probably many more consumers who are putting off buying a new car until a $25k EV is on the market.
A consumer reports survey supports this:
Consumer Reports Survey Shows Strong Interest in Electric Cars - Consumer Reports
A new nationwide survey by Consumer Reports reveals the interest in electric cars, and the concerns for some potential buyers.www.consumerreports.org
My anecdotal experience supports this too. A surprising number of people who were in shock and awe when I bought a Model S in 2017 bought an EV this year. Several other friends mentioned waiting for a cheaper EV before they get a new car.
As for BMW, that’s a poor comparison. EV sales (and Tesla sales) have been growing exponentially for a decade. Good luck to BMW to follow in Tesla’s footsteps- from a global perspective
My personal forecast is that once EV sales hit 20-25%, then ICE sales will begin to drop faster than EV sales are increasing.
I'm not sure and I am ready for a healthy amount of disagrees....but Really?
Does anyone here saying Tesla shouldn't, wouldn't or couldn't make their own fab have any history of what they have done????
Just 2 days ago (maybe 6) there was a prominent super computer executive on twitter dumbfounded that Tesla built their own super computer specifically for exactly what they wanted it to do with the excess ability to license it out after the fact.
He literally said "No one does that, or would attempt it!"
Tesla and Elon Musk et al, have done things no one thought possible (have you watched a Falcon 9 land on a moving ship??)
This encompasses the first principles and ideals of the company.
We should NOT expect any announcement of any in house FAB's being built until they are ready to move forward since they do not want to osbourne suppliers however, when announced (just like battery day) they will happily state - "We do not plan to abandon any suppliers, in fact we will buy everything you can sell us"
If possible, please remove the mental hurdles in attempting something like building a FAB, or a Robot, or a Starship and just let them do it, invest and reap the benefits to not only your personal wealth but to humanity for having moved forward buy a large leap.
Cheers.
Does anyone here saying Tesla shouldn't, wouldn't or couldn't make their own fab have any history of what they have done????
Just 2 days ago (maybe 6) there was a prominent super computer executive on twitter dumbfounded that Tesla built their own super computer specifically for exactly what they wanted it to do with the excess ability to license it out after the fact.
He literally said "No one does that, or would attempt it!"
Tesla and Elon Musk et al, have done things no one thought possible (have you watched a Falcon 9 land on a moving ship??)
This encompasses the first principles and ideals of the company.
We should NOT expect any announcement of any in house FAB's being built until they are ready to move forward since they do not want to osbourne suppliers however, when announced (just like battery day) they will happily state - "We do not plan to abandon any suppliers, in fact we will buy everything you can sell us"
If possible, please remove the mental hurdles in attempting something like building a FAB, or a Robot, or a Starship and just let them do it, invest and reap the benefits to not only your personal wealth but to humanity for having moved forward buy a large leap.
Cheers.
And I'm firmly in Cathie's camp as it appears to me that this is happening now as demand is accelerating far beyond current production.
My thought example: *if* Tesla suddenly had double the production, would they be able to satiate demand? I think hells yes.
So what amount of production would satiate current US demand? And here's where I'd agree with you. If Tesla were *currently* producing 20 to 25% of the US demand for their class of cars, I think the demand would be there. This would materialize in the form of no wait times and better economies of scale (i.e. the price would come down accordingly).
You can see that effect all around. And not just disruption.
Example: My wife looked for Houses in Poland for some time. In the last 2 years prices rose by 42% with no end in sight. This leads to a run on houses & overvalue. The interesting part is the reason: Is it catch-up to german prices? Is it a bubble that will burst again? Is this facilitated by very cheap house-loans (rates under inflation)?
Same for cars in the used market. If you want a car and have time.. like your old one is still good enough, but you want an upgrade.. and then you see that prices fall 30% or so in a short time.. wouldn't you wait as well? The old one can surely do 6 more months ..
This in turn affects the leasing-prices - as the resale-value at the end of the lease is part of the equation. And in the case of falling resale values it can cost some leasing companies huge sums of money.
So i think the resale-value is importand as a measure on how things will work out on the "normal" sale front in some months/years. If resale-values slump, then leasing gets more expensive and many calculations of people who want "the newest tech" and sell if after 2 years to get the newest model may be rethinking their future purchases. And maybe get the newest BMW only every 3 years .. wich would (in the extreme) lead to -50% sales in the next years..
tl;dr: resale-value is to me more like an indicator for X than a direct reason for X.
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