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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm not sure and I am ready for a healthy amount of disagrees....but Really?

Does anyone here saying Tesla shouldn't, wouldn't or couldn't make their own fab have any history of what they have done????
Fab's are more capital intensive than they appear to be as they require intense supply chain management as well as regular die shrink upgrades.

But should they do it? For me it is simple: How many chips will they need in the next 10 years? If the answer is greater than 100 million then the answer is to building a Fab is yes. Anything less than 10 million would be no and somewhere in the middle is murky.

Will Tesla eventually buy or build a Fab? Yes, I wouldn't have said that a month ago, but the Android has shifted my thinking.

When will Tesla have their own Fab? Since it takes quite a while to spin one up, I'd think this makes sense in 2026 to have it online. So that means buying or starting to build something 2023.
 
If possible, please remove the mental hurdles in attempting something like building a FAB, or a Robot, or a Starship and just let them do it, invest and reap the benefits to not only your personal wealth but to humanity for having moved forward buy a large leap.
Cheers.
Dojo is needed & cannot be bought.
FABs are not neccessary. They are only profitable to operate when operating >95% capacity 24/7/365.

Sure Tesla CAN go into FABs. But do they NEED to?

Tesla usually in-houses things that others cannot do at the amounts tesla needs, but where it is critical.
 
I'm not sure and I am ready for a healthy amount of disagrees....but Really?

...

If possible, please remove the mental hurdles in attempting something like building a FAB, or a Robot, or a Starship and just let them do it, invest and reap the benefits to not only your personal wealth but to humanity for having moved forward buy a large leap.
Cheers.

Well, call it coincidence, but for the last week i was wondering what the big foundation trench at giga texas is meant for. Stamping, casting and the battery cell production is already accounted for. What needs a big heavy foundation for nanometer scale precision? A small Fab coud be the missing part of Giga Texas.
 
Well, call it coincidence, but for the last week i was wondering what the big foundation trench at giga texas is meant for. Stamping, casting and the battery cell production is already accounted for. What needs a big heavy foundation for nanometer scale precision? A small Fab coud be the missing part of Giga Texas.
That one may be a logistics hall served by tunnel. Seems extremely unlikely to be a fab. But rather it is logistics inspired by how chips are laid out and how container terminals work.
 
Fab's are more capital intensive than they appear to be as they require intense supply chain management as well as regular die shrink upgrades.

But should they do it? For me it is simple: How many chips will they need in the next 10 years? If the answer is greater than 100 million then the answer is to building a Fab is yes. Anything less than 10 million would be no and somewhere in the middle is murky.

Will Tesla eventually buy or build a Fab? Yes, I wouldn't have said that a month ago, but the Android has shifted my thinking.

When will Tesla have their own Fab? Since it takes quite a while to spin one up, I'd think this makes sense in 2026 to have it online. So that means buying or starting to build something 2023.

Each HW board has two chips, so if Tesla is building 10-20m cars by the early 2030s, that's 20-40m chips right there. Then that's 2 chips per android, and Dojo on top of that....

HW/brain for both cars and android will probably have to be upgraded several times over their lives.

I could see Tesla needing 100m+ per year by the early 2030s.
 
And I'm firmly in Cathie's camp as it appears to me that this is happening now as demand is accelerating far beyond current production.

My thought example: *if* Tesla suddenly had double the production, would they be able to satiate demand? I think hells yes.

So what amount of production would satiate current US demand? And here's where I'd agree with you. If Tesla were *currently* producing 20 to 25% of the US demand for their class of cars, I think the demand would be there. This would materialize in the form of no wait times and better economies of scale (i.e. the price would come down accordingly).
My $0.02 worth on all the recurring mentions of Tesla sales compared to competitors, can we please stop focusing the comparison of Tesla's sales to sales of other EVs?? (Not disagreeing with you, @Discoducky, just responding to the thread).

I don't fundamentally care if Tesla sells more EVs than, say, the Hongguang Mini EV. I want to see how quickly Tesla plus other EV manufacturers are outselling ICEs (see chart below).

Keep your eye on the prize - it's not about beating other EVs. It's about how we can "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy".

1630588741737.png


1630588913626.png
 
That one may be a logistics hall served by tunnel. Seems extremely unlikely to be a fab. But rather it is logistics inspired by how chips are laid out and how container terminals work.
I don't byte the speculation with logistics hall and boring tunnel connection. Boring tunnel is too far out for operations and not really needed with the freeway alongside and logistics is not that heavy to require drilled pilings. I'm sure Tesla will surprise us either way.
 
Well, call it coincidence, but for the last week i was wondering what the big foundation trench at giga texas is meant for. Stamping, casting and the battery cell production is already accounted for. What needs a big heavy foundation for nanometer scale precision? A small Fab coud be the missing part of Giga Texas.
Is a small fab even a thing?

I know many discount the idea due to cost, but money isn't really an issue for Tesla. We shouldn't forget that this is the same company that went from building a chopped up Lotus with laptop batteries to building AI supercomputers and humanoid robots in less than two decades. Very little would surprise me.
 
I'm not sure and I am ready for a healthy amount of disagrees....but Really?
{snip}
If possible, please remove the mental hurdles in attempting something like building a FAB, or a Robot, or a Starship and just let them do it, invest and reap the benefits to not only your personal wealth but to humanity for having moved forward buy a large leap.
Cheers.
Freudian slip?
 
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TSLA down vs macros (as expected) after latest NHTSA drama: (MMs had to have their $730)

Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,640.50 +31.25 (+0.20%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 02, 2021 05:56 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$729.25 -4.84 (-0.66%)
Pre-Market Volume25,514
Pre-Market High$732.99 (04:00:58 AM)
Pre-Market Low$727.41 (05:55:10 AM)
I have to say that given the low volumes this week, it's a pretty poor effort!
 
Well, call it coincidence, but for the last week i was wondering what the big foundation trench at giga texas is meant for. Stamping, casting and the battery cell production is already accounted for. What needs a big heavy foundation for nanometer scale precision? A small Fab coud be the missing part of Giga Texas.
I could be Dunning-Kruger here but, no way they would put micron level chip fab adjacent to multi-ton stamping presses.
That section is using 2 support columns instead of 4, so it's either something wide or double gantry cranes like in the spaceframe covered alley on the north end. I'd guess receiving for metal rolls, possibly drive through.
Regarding chips, Tesla needs power ICs along with microcontrollers. Those are different materials and process size. Buying capacity might be an easier route for them, like Panasonic at GF1. Especially given institutional knowledge and IP.
 
Is a small fab even a thing?

I know many discount the idea due to cost, but money isn't really an issue for Tesla. We shouldn't forget that this is the same company that went from building a chopped up Lotus with laptop batteries to building AI supercomputers and humanoid robots in less than two decades. Very little would surprise me.
I am not in the business, but I would think that building cheap and competetive chips takes a really expensive and customized always-newest-up-to-date factory.

But do they really need that, given the percentage chips are of their cars’ materials?

Maybe 10x cost at chip level is perfectly OK to achieve wanted independence and flexibility…

…and to add, they don’t need crazy volumes either. Yet, anyway…
 
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Of course they should. The regulators are not going to force everyone to buy a Tesla simply because it's 5X safer than a human! They wouldn't do that anymore than they forced everyone to buy a Volvo in the 1970's because they were multiple times safer than anything else available.
You misread. I posited that Tesla's tech is 10X safer than human and 5X safer than competitor. You would need to argue that the competitors tech, being just 2X safer than human, is good enough. In either case, a regulator is never forcing the industry everyone to buy a Tesla; the competitor always has the option to sell a vehicle to be driven by humans without the questionable autonomy tech.

Now some people have speculated that once autonomy tech becomes 10X safer than human than human driving would be banned. That would take us into to a whole new ballgame because demonstrating that your tech is mere as good (1X) as human would no longer be good enough; it would be banned along with unaided human driving. In this situation, it becomes debatable whether even 2X safer than human is good enough for regulators. Indeed some human drivers could argue that they themselves are 2X safer than the average human driver and ought to be allowed to drive unaided as well. This then would be a tough situation because they would no longer have the option of marketing vehicles for human driving.

Personally, I doubt that governments will ever get to the point where they ban unaided human driving. Market forces will strongly favor the best autonomy tech and it will become ubiquitous without being banned. As they fraction of vehicles on the road with 10X or better autonomy rises, the roads will become incrementally safer, even for hapless human drivers. For example, if you're the only human driver on the road and all other vehicles on the road have autonomy good enough to avoid having an at-fault accident with you, then the only accidents you get into are where you yourself are at fault. So your total risk of having an accident is reduced as the risk from other vehicles drops to zero. So to the extent that even unaided human driving becomes less risky over time and in response to vehicle autonomy uptake, governments have even less motive to ban it and face the ire of a certain segment of autonomy resistant drivers.

So I guess I net out to a position where most governments continue to allow unaided drivers, but hold autonomy tech to a higher standard. Governments will likely want to protect unaided human drivers from accidents with other vehicles where autonomy is at fault. Thus, autonomous tech would need to prove that it can avoid most accidents with other human drivers and especially any at-fault accidents. Also of course, autonomy must avoid accidents with pedestrians, animals and stationary objects. I suspect that any autonomous tech that can achieve this is likely more than 2X safer than human drivers. Indeed any autonomy tech that is merely 1X as safe as human on average is probably less safe than humans in as many scenarios as it more safe than humans. This raises the question, in which scenarios would regulators tolerate an autonomy system that is less safe than human? If the answer is none, then the average safety must be much higher than 1X. Indeed NHTSA looks to be doing some data mining on Tesla data to find out where if any Tesla's autonomy tech might be inferior to human drivers. If they find anything, then Tesla will have to improve upon that and be able to demonstrate superior performance in the future. So nominally I think Tesla needs to be at least 2X safer than human on average just to pass current regulatory scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Ford Blue needs to be able to navigate a bend in the road.
 
Fab steps from Wikipedia:
List of Applied Materials technologies that their products support"
Applied Materials do much of what is needed in a fab plant. Could Tesla have bought 9 different machines that together make a mini fab?
I'm curios, how many of these processes must Tesla already do while manufacturing PV solar modules or batteries? I suspect there is some overlap, but alas as I am not an engineer, I would not hazard a guess.
 
Is a small fab even a thing?

I know many discount the idea due to cost, but money isn't really an issue for Tesla. We shouldn't forget that this is the same company that went from building a chopped up Lotus with laptop batteries to building AI supercomputers and humanoid robots in less than two decades. Very little would surprise me.
Did a quick measurement. The gap in giga texas is about 450,000 sqft with assumed 3 production floors and 1,200,000 sqft of production floor space it would qualify for a sizable fab. By far too much room for a warehouse. Giga is huge.

Market is open, I'll guide myself out :)
 
Well, call it coincidence, but for the last week i was wondering what the big foundation trench at giga texas is meant for. Stamping, casting and the battery cell production is already accounted for. What needs a big heavy foundation for nanometer scale precision? A small Fab coud be the missing part of Giga Texas.

I suspect we're seeing the foundations for the Cybertruck assembly line. Could be integrated with Body too, since there is no "paint" step to divert between forming the body and final assembly.

Cheers!