Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

"Huge Redwood Materials News!" | SMR

J.B. wants to build a new 100 GW/yr cathode mill in 2022 East of their existing facilities in Nevada.

Apropos of nothing in particular:

• have you noticed that the last of the LPF cathode patents expire in April 2022?
• I sure hope J.B. is getting enough iron in his diet
• I want an IRON CT

Cheers!

 

[Criscmt]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.
Are we about to see Gamma squeeze again?

I have earlier seen the case of a short leg on a spread getting my shares assigned, even though it was part of a Spread.
That was for an expiry 2 weeks away from then. The strike was 480C.

Today, at a different brokerage, I had Jan-2022 480C/490C spread. My shares were taken away for assignment against the 490C. Again, this was a spread. You might ask why I still keep such DITM spread, that's a different point.

Did anyone here see such share assignment when expiry is 3+ months away?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Lycanthrope @bxr140

 

[Tslynk67]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.
Are we about to see Gamma squeeze again?

I have earlier seen the case of a short leg on a spread getting my shares assigned, even though it was part of a Spread.
That was for an expiry 2 weeks away from then. The strike was 480C.

Today, at a different brokerage, I had Jan-2022 480C/490C spread. My shares were taken away for assignment against the 490C. Again, this was a spread. You might ask why I still keep such DITM spread. That's a different point.

Did anyone here see such share assignment when expiry is 3+ months away?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Lycanthrope @bxr140

I've never been early assigned, you're damned unlucky in this respect!

I'm being very cautious with sold calls now, particularly spreads with LEAPS as the long leg. I think it goes pop at any moment, maybe P&D will be the catalyst, maybe it comes before then in anticipation

In any case, your short calls were exercised, but with a spread of $10, the impact is pretty minimal - you can hold those longs and make some nice wonga

 

[Artful Dodger]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.

The only thing I've got for you is that is the new TSLA whale, KoGuan Leo, has bought up 1.2+ million shares in the past week or so.

Because he's a shareholder of record, he won't be deceived by counterfeit shares (he'll be able to verify his holdings with the share issuing agency).

So the MMs/hedgies shorting TSLA last Friday and again Monday now have to scramble to locate a large number of shares in a short time to avoid an FTD report.

Go Whalers! (extinct Harford hockey team reference)

Cheers!

People also ask:
​

What happens when a short seller fails to deliver?

Subsequently, the pending failure to deliver creates what are called "phantom shares" in the marketplace, which may dilute the price of the underlying stock. In other words, the buyer on the other side of such trades may own shares, on paper, which do not actually exist.

Failure To Deliver (FTD) Definition - Investopedia​

 

[Artful Dodger]

you can hold those longs and make some nice wonga

Fun Fact: the "Wonga" is now the official currency of Vulgaria since Brexit has devalued the dog pound.

Cheers!

 

[lascavarian]

If she’s not going to let the software drive the car then why is she even a beta tester? She’s wasting the opportunity.

She does give explanations of her perceptions and thinking which is the gold standard for beta testers. You need a variety of inputs to improve a product. Far from wasting an opportunity, she is delivering the feedback the company needs to improve the product as I see it.

There seems to be a false narrative related to disengagements developing that could lead to accidents. Counting/tracking disengagements as a YouTube click magnet is probably going to lead to something unfortunate if it evolves into a competition.

 

[PKEllefsen]

Does anyone know approximately what Tesla's freight cost is per vehicle from China to Europe? Tried searching a bit for this, but couldnt find anything. Also they have sent 10+ boats from china to europe now in july/august with m3 and my and a total of approx 55K cars. I guess they send around 4-5K vehicles per boat.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,430.50 +43.50 (+0.28%)
As of 5:26AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 15, 2021 05:35 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$747.52 +3.03 (+0.41%)
Pre-Market Volume	12,560
Pre-Market High	$748.02 (04:31:08 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$745.44 (04:19:06 AM)

 

[samppa]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.
Are we about to see Gamma squeeze again?

I have earlier seen the case of a short leg on a spread getting my shares assigned, even though it was part of a Spread.
That was for an expiry 2 weeks away from then. The strike was 480C.

Today, at a different brokerage, I had Jan-2022 480C/490C spread. My shares were taken away for assignment against the 490C. Again, this was a spread. You might ask why I still keep such DITM spread, that's a different point.

Did anyone here see such share assignment when expiry is 3+ months away?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Lycanthrope @bxr140

Never been early assigned, I wonder if this is broker dependent? I'm on IB.

 

[jw934]

Does anyone know approximately what Tesla's freight cost is per vehicle from China to Europe?

I recall someone mentioned somewhere a while back that it was between $2000 and $3000 .

Found a chart (of shipping 40' containers) that seems to back that up, with some assumptions.

Port fees (at Shanghai and Europe) might add another $300 at each end.

 

[saniflash]

Never been early assigned, I wonder if this is broker dependent? I'm on IB.

it's a lottery. First the OCC looks at all brokers that are short the exercised contracts, and assigns the exercise pro-rata to those brokers. these brokers in turn do a lottery among the "lucky" account holders that are short these contracts. Is it rigged e.g. that large institutional clients at IB get less assignments? I don't know.

 

[kanweg]

I disagree. I have a Volt too and I plug it in every chance I get. My goal is for the engine to never run. I drive it around with 2 gallons of gas in it just to keep it from yelling at me for low fuel and from preventing me from preconditioning the car. It’s still .03/mile to drive on electric just like our M3. The engine is .09/mile.

I am by no means in favor of the PHEV portion of the bill.

My plug in has a 3-4kwh battery (my estimate based on the range I get) and I plug it in after every trip. For the proposal to be somewhat effective (to cut gas consumption), that behavior would have to be the typical behavior. I argued why it is not (and research shows that relatively few people do it) And that as a consequence it will be basically business as usual for gas companies. And the car companies will sell the PHEVs at a discount that is relatively larger than the discount for a BEV. you may not have liked the post but did not dismantle my arguments (Irrespective of the fact that we both agree that the proposal is bad).

 

[jw934]

Just think of India, Indonesia, Russia, Southeast Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, nearly all the Middle East and all of Africa and South America. The next decade will have even more massive growth than just expanding market share in existing markets.

Speaking of India, they just approved a $3.5B incentive for clean and safe cars, and drones.

--------- Quote ------------
Auto parts makers will get incentives to produce components for clean cars as well as for investing in safety-related parts and other advanced technologies like sensors and radars used in connected cars, automatic transmission, cruise control and other electronics.

The original plan was to spend $8 billion to incentivise auto and auto part makers to build mainly gasoline vehicles and their components for domestic sale and export, with some added benefit for electric vehicles (EVs)

The scheme's focus was redrawn as Tesla Inc gears up to enter India.

------- End Quote ---------

Glad to see Tesla already making a positive impact in India's legislation and auto sector.

India approves $3.5 billion incentive scheme for auto sector, drones | MarketScreener

India's cabinet on Wednesday approved an incentive scheme for the automobile sector, aimed at boosting production of electric and hydrogen fuel-powered vehicles, and to promote the manufacture of... | May 21, 2023

www.marketscreener.com

 

[The Accountant]

Great News - Troy is reporting that Production at Shanghai was 41,754 in August giving us an annual run rate of 501k.
I was anticipating 39k in production, so the 41.8k number is encouraging.

edit: I am not sure where Troy sourced this number. The CPCA is expected to report Aug production mid next week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438010752376393729

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Great News - Troy is reporting that Production at Shanghai was 41,754 in August giving us an annual run rate of 501k.
I was anticipating 39k in production, so the 41.8k number is encouraging.

View attachment 709527

https://twitter.com/x/status/1438010752376393729

Are there 372 days in the year, now? You don’t get a run rate by taking a month and multiplying by 12.

The more correct run rate is 492K.

(41754/31)*365

Sorry, Troy. But it’s still very nice.

 

[The Accountant]

I'm impressed with the production ramp at Shanghai and this while OEMs are shutting down production due to chip shortages.

Shanghai grew production in Q2 vs Q1 by 19k vehicles, and
if you assume 40k production in Sep, they will have grown Q3 vs Q2 by 20.5k.
Now the wild card is Fremont . . . .hoping production levels stayed strong there too.

 

[generalenthu]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.
Are we about to see Gamma squeeze again?

I have earlier seen the case of a short leg on a spread getting my shares assigned, even though it was part of a Spread.
That was for an expiry 2 weeks away from then. The strike was 480C.

Today, at a different brokerage, I had Jan-2022 480C/490C spread. My shares were taken away for assignment against the 490C. Again, this was a spread. You might ask why I still keep such DITM spread, that's a different point.

Did anyone here see such share assignment when expiry is 3+ months away?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Lycanthrope @bxr140

Very interesting, and lucky I should say. You should be able to buy back the shares and get into your original position and net about $12 per contract. That's more than the spread width. Might have been a fat finger mistake. All good unless it's impacting taxes creating an unexpected tax liabilityI. It might just be a fat finger on your counterparties' part. If you don't mind, was it more than 1 contract?

Don't think a gamma squeeze is in play, but never say never. It feels like longs have been selling premiums with abandon, and when they stop it might create more upward pressure

 

[hacer]

Desperation for shares? Shares assigned towards a short leg from a spread, with expiry 3 months away.
Are we about to see Gamma squeeze again?

I have earlier seen the case of a short leg on a spread getting my shares assigned, even though it was part of a Spread.
That was for an expiry 2 weeks away from then. The strike was 480C.

Today, at a different brokerage, I had Jan-2022 480C/490C spread. My shares were taken away for assignment against the 490C. Again, this was a spread. You might ask why I still keep such DITM spread, that's a different point.

Did anyone here see such share assignment when expiry is 3+ months away?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Lycanthrope @bxr140

I haven't specifically had this happen to me, but then I generally buy back calls (if I sell them which I haven't done lately) before they get DITM. Presently I'm contemplating exercising some calls I own, 200 strike Jan '22 even though there is ~ 4 months left. The time premium is less than $2 (assuming I can split the bid/ask) so the penalty is very small. The reason is that the holding period for tax purposes starts on the date of exercise, so getting started sooner arrives at long-term capital gains (LTCG) sooner. The calls themselves are already LTCG elligible so I could sell now but that would create a rather large tax liability that I would prefer to spread out over time for various reasons.

So there can be legitimate reasons for early exercise.

 

[NicoV]

According to ID.3- en ID.4-rijders kunnen zich eindelijk Tesla-rijder voelen id3 and Id4 drivers can now finally feel like Tesla drivers because the software update that enables over-the-air updates is available to the general public as of now.
IIRC, that’s 2 weeks later than expected.
In Elon time.

 

[mongo]

Fact-checking (and body-checking) NYTimes Presstitute Neal Boudette in a 6-part tweet-storm:

𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 on Twitter: "@nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk 5/ Why are you attacking Tesla's life-saving Autopilot technologies, which is 9x safer than the average car? Aren't 33,000+ dead Americans per year due to unsafe ICE vehicles too much in your opinion? Isn't your Autopilot stance a form of unscientific car safety anti-vaxxing? https://t.co/UetqiCXOce" / Twitter​

Enjoy!

Yeah... about that....
9x is only if one compares the accident rate while Autopilot is engaged (which implies specific road conditions, vehicle age, and owner demographics) to the accident rate of all vehicles on all roads.
The non-AP, non-safety crash rate of a Tesla is half the national average, which must be some combination of inherent design, driver, location, and vehicle age.

In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

This is the same type of statistical issue as the insideEV Bolt fire op-ed that compared Bolt rate of fires to vehicles of any age (subsetting parked events in the second paragraph), rather that fire rate of similar age vehicles (though they do call out ICE fire recalls):
Keeping The Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV Recall In Perspective

But realistically, how does the likelihood of your Bolt catching fire compare with road vehicles at large? The National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) keeps tabs on fires of all sorts, and reports that around 0.07% of cars and trucks (or around 700 for every million on the road) end up catching fire. Meanwhile, as of this writing, there have been 19 known Bolt EV fires - which puts the likelihood of experiencing one around 0.01% or 100-in-1-million. Even considering only 2017-2019 models, responsible for all but one of the fires, the odds are still only 0.027%; 60% less likely than a fossil-fueled car fire.


That said, Bolt fires generally only occur when parked. If we limit the gas-powered vehicle fires to just those that NFPA reports occured when parked (37%) their odds-of-fire drop to about 260-in-1,000,000. Even comparing with this limited set, Bolt fires remain well under half as likely as a parked fossil-fueled vehicle catching fire, and for 2017-2019 model years are on-par.