Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tyler34]

The funny part is Q1 and Q2 2022 are likely going to go back up to 109% and 121% YoY growth. Poor Gordo can't catch a break.

"But they opened a new factory"

 

[Paul_SF]

Elon has understood this for a long time. Advanced technologies like autopilot or full self driving or the supercharger network, these are useful for Tesla in the short term because they let the company charge more for its cars. That's important while Tesla is a young company and doesn't have the financial scale of the traditional automakers. But in the long run, every carmaker will have full self driving, 300-500 mile range, and a great charging network. The rate at which EVs improve year over year will slow down and the gap between the best EV (Tesla) and an average EV will narrow. Elon's plan has been to use the financial boost from an early technology advantage to build up Tesla's industrial capability. In the long run, self-driving EVs will be commodity products just like gasoline cars are today. And in a commodity market, the most successful business is the lowest cost producer i.e. the one that is best at efficient manufacturing.

You can see Elon's long-term plan at work in Tesla's geographic decision-making. Their geographic choices are gradually moving along the spectrum from expensive tech hubs to cheaper places. Silicon Valley is the best place in the world for developing advanced technology. But Silicon Valley is a very expensive place to build huge factories. Fremont wasn't picked because it is some great place to mass produce commodity products; the advantage of a plant in Fremont (within Silicon Valley) is to shorten the loop between engineering and manufacturing and improve Tesla's technology edge, in the early days. Austin is Tesla's second* US site. Austin is also good at technology, though not as good at it as SV. Austin is also a really expensive place to build a huge factory, but cheaper than SV. Austin's emphasis will still be tech, but not to the same degree it was in Fremont. Tesla's 3rd site ("Northeast US") is going to be in someplace like Pittsburgh, which has some technical capability but also a long industrial legacy. Tesla's 4th, 5th, and 6th sites are going to be in cheap places with little technical talent like Alabama or South Carolina.

* Ignoring Sparks, which is sort of an offload location for the Silicon Valley site. It seems Tesla uses Nevada to build stuff that requires a lot of square footage but not that many people.

I don’t think we will see 6 GF in US. Possibly 3 Tera Factories.

One TF is, like Elon said at battery day, more like 10 factories. Austin is that thing. Fremont will be updated and one more location, maybe.

We will see, the future is exciting! Thanks to Elon!

 

[Singuy]

Are we feeling , or about market open on Monday?

I'm feeling green on Monday. Thinking QQQ will try to retest 363 while Tesla FOMO comes in

 

[Big Time]

Gordos suspenders are popping tonight. Vain probably protruding on his forehead.... sweaty....... most likely herniated himself..... Eating his usual bowl of dog-food for dinner.
I love how on twitter he comments on moneyballs posts to try to get info for his next hit job.

Sleep well Gordo

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Are we feeling , or about market open on Monday?

Everyone's so pessimistic these days, I think we open up in the low to mid 800's on Monday.

You couldn't ask for a better chart, options have been massively de-valued, average volume has been lower than it has been in practically the history of the stock........all of these are elements that culminate in breakout moments in stocks.

And I'll up that ante.....I think we end Friday above 900 because I think Thursday will hold some surprises.

 

[uujjj2]

More people than you think would jump at the chance to not have to live in SV… many are only there for the jobs. The insane COL, taxes, and even the politics can be pretty oppressive.

This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"

 

[ZachF]

Tesla recently got approval for the construction of water storages at Berlin. The site plan (extract below) shows the construction in this area as two water retention basins. One is a "Fire extinguishing water retention basin" and the other is a "Stormwater retention basin".

View attachment 717187

TSLAQ:

“Tesla building giant man made lake in anticipation of all the new fires!!!!”

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon being Elon. He's probably sitting around brainstorming with his best to see if they can reduce the manufacturing of a Model 3 from 10hrs each down to 1hr each. Btw, if they managed to cut the time down by 90%, even robotaxi revenue becomes insignificant.

Exactly what I was thinking!

Elon: It takes us 10 hours to mfg a Model 3?! That’s bananas! We must get that down by at least an order of magnitude or twelve. We are moving too slow. Cars should be coming out of the factory so fast that they can’t be seen with the naked eye.

 

[Roadster69]

Close friend of mine is in Tesla's management team. Trust me, Austin will be the new world headquarters, and sooner than most people think.

Tesla isn't giving up the Fremont location (like batteries, they will take every factory they can and produce from it). But Fremont will stop being the center of the "Tesla universe" that it once was. This shift was already clearly apparent to anyone that was watching what happened with Shangai, and now soon to be Austin and Berlin.

Yes, I think it's very clear Tesla is moving to Texas. The delivery report says it was from ATX. Also, shareholder meeting moved to ATX

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't know what's gonna happen Monday so unlike my normal shoot-from-the-hip strategy I'm gonna have a plan.

Before amazing numbers were confirmed, some folks here were worried deliveries would underwhelm and we'd see a major IV drop next week with flat/down SP. Since Wall Street often keeps going with the plan regardless of good/bad numbers, I'm going in Monday assuming shenanigans.

Maybe sell a couple hundred shares and lever up with slightly in the money LEAPs.

$3B+ in earnings across two quarters in a pandemic, then what.....$5.5B across three?. Gonna be hard to keep our PE where it is or where it's inevitably headed. 80%+ growth is now in the bag for 2021.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Everyone's so pessimistic these days, I think we open up in the low to mid 800's on Monday.

You couldn't ask for a better chart, options have been massively de-valued, average volume has been lower than it has been in practically the history of the stock........all of these are elements that culminate in breakout moments in stocks.

And I'll up that ante.....I think we end Friday above 900 because I think Thursday will hold some surprises.

I believe that we will make a run for ATH again before earnings. The previous ATH close was 883 or thereabouts IIRC.

 

[Roadster69]

Gordos suspenders are popping tonight. Vain probably protruding on his forehead.... sweaty....... most likely herniated himself..... Eating his usual bowl of dog-food for dinner.
I love how on twitter he comments on moneyballs posts to try to get info for his next hit job.

Sleep well Gordo

Gordo is always dressed slick though, ngl. Wrong about this growth story but his stylist is on point.

 

[capster]

This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"

Not so sure that’s true going forward. Even though my ex and I did well with two decent incomes and did well with the house we bought in the late nineties, I’m not sure it was worth it and I wouldn’t do it again now. The overall costs are high and the taxes are punishing. As @ZachF mentioned, the politics are oppressive (regardless of whether it’s the "you’re privileged, give us all your money" of the public spaces or the Darwinian ruthlessness of tech companies under the hood).

Like all of the parents, we worried that our kids couldn’t buy in; many kids don’t want to. California redirects your money to the UC’s and your kids to out-of-state schools (so the UC’s can collect more out-of-state students’ tuition). So much for having family in one place.

Maybe most can afford a nicer car than elsewhere but their house won’t be any better. Few will have much time for their families, marriage, or to enjoy what California has to offer. The weather’s nice, but that’s also changing.

 

[JustMe]

Damn it sucks to be wealthy. The poor have it so easy!

/s

enough of the class warfare, please

 

[Roadster69]

I believe that we will make a run for ATH again before earnings. The previous ATH close was 883 or thereabouts IIRC.

Very tough to say, I believe there was over $100M worth of shares for sales at $800 share price on Friday. If that gets gobbled up, this thing could be on the run. But otherwise, that's pretty strong overhead selling pressure.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Well Toronto came through. Everything not bolted down is sold. They managed to push out a bunch of S's including this one:
View attachment 716414
The yoke? Hmmmmmm.

@kbeckley, thanks for the invite to the King City (North of Toronto) EV event today. It was a pleasure meeting with you. Your Model S looks rad, and that yoke, such an improvement on the interior. I was shocked that you offered me to test drive your 48 hour old EV, and even more shocked that I declined (missed opportunity on my part). Tesla owners are the best.

Of interest was a comment from one of the attendees that they had their heart set on purchasing an E-Tron (no words), however their Audi dealer advised her the wait time for an E-Tron was 18 months, so she has instead opted for a Model 3 Performance.

 

[jschwefel]

Growth company anyone?

Deliveries	2020	2021	CHANGE
Q1	88,496	184,800	109%
Q2	90,891	201,250	121%
Q3	139,593	241,300	73%
Q4	180,667
YEAR	499,647	627,350

Nice summary! Thanks.

Legacy automakers, particularly Ford and GM should be embarrassed. Chip shortage? Really?

 

[Krugerrand]

Are we feeling , or about market open on Monday?

 

[ninpb]

Everyone's so pessimistic these days, I think we open up in the low to mid 800's on Monday.

You couldn't ask for a better chart, options have been massively de-valued, average volume has been lower than it has been in practically the history of the stock........all of these are elements that culminate in breakout moments in stocks.

And I'll up that ante.....I think we end Friday above 900 because I think Thursday will hold some surprises.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Unless Fremont is expecting a step up in production

Tesla now has two new sources of 3/Y bty packs that were not fully reflected in Q3 production:

• a new Panasonic bty cell line went into production at Giga Nevada on about Aug 1st. This new supply almost certainly contributed to the increased production in Q3, but only at one-third of its nameplate capacity. The full effect will be seen in Q4, but again this step-change happened over 2 calendar months ago now.
• The effect of this additonal bty cell line is the equivalent of about 6.9K LR Models 3/Y per Quarter, or and increase of about +4.6K in Q4 vs Q3 for 3/Y production
• CATL is now providing LFP std rge packs for Fremont 3/Y. Recall that the LFP patents expired on Oct 1st, 2021. It's no coincidence that Sandy Monro had a Model 3 SR/LFP pack inspection video available as soon as the patents expired.
• Twitters rumor is about 1K/wk supply from CATL to Fremont, so again that's between 8-12K total cars of added production for Q4 vs Q3 (new bty supply started sometime in Sep 2021).
• Adding it all up, I estimate that Fremont will produce about 15K more Models 3/Y in Q4 vs Q3 due to these two news bty supplies.

Anything else is a bonus (in addition to these increases).

Cheers!