Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Am I missing something? How will Tesla learn the unique subtleties of the countless intersections across the world?

All Tesla FSD cars will have connectivity. They won't need to upload a finished 3-D model (Tesla's version of a hi-rez map) to be helpful, just the vector results +solution provided by the path-planning NN.

Whenever a car is operating in FSD mode in a place its never been (and the best route isn't obvious, like a mall parking lot), it can just send a query to the mothership requesting a suggested route.

The FSD executes that route (or modifies it) based on what its own sensors see in realtime. The car obviously can cache route plans for places to goes often, or even cache in advance for places its never been.

The trigger point for the upload is the key, yet ultimately also very simple: whenever the usual vision + path-planning process results in a sub-optimal route, then the updated plan is flagged to be saved locally. And potentially uploaded to the mothership to be shared with other members of the fleet.

Tesla already does a rudimentary version of this shared path planning via its Traffic updates for routing.

TL;dr They GOT THIS. Computer science'n'*sugar*.

Cheers!

 

[WarpedOne]

insaneoctane said:

Am I missing something? How will Tesla learn the unique subtleties of the countless intersections across the world?ld take for a mod to step in an

You are starting with a false premise that FSD needs to drive like a meat driver who knows the road.
This is not only false bat also dangerous. Knowing the road is old knowledge that might not apply this time around and bang, accident.

FSD acting like a driver who first came to some corner is a correct and safer approach - do not pretend you know what you do not see.
What was there yesterday, may not be there today. Obstacle or free space.

FSD is going to be better than humans by driving differently. It cannot be better and drive the same way.
One way to improve though is live feed from satellite cameras that can give the car ability to see what is around the corner right now. Not yesterday, right now.

 

[Paul_SF]

You are starting with a false premise that FSD needs to drive like a meat driver who knows the road.
This is not only false bat also dangerous. Knowing the road is old knowledge that might not apply this time around and bang, accident.

FSD acting like a driver who first came to some corner is a correct and safer approach - do not pretend you know what you do not see.
What was there yesterday, may not be there today. Obstacle or free space.

FSD is going to be better than humans by driving differently. It cannot be better and drive the same way.
One way to improve though is live feed from satellite cameras that can give the car ability to see what is around the corner right now. Not yesterday, right now.

Wasn’t me asking that

 

[RobDickinson]

Love these videos.

Showing that the plaid rear dual motor assembly is basically 2 model 3 motors with carbon wrapped rotor and slight changes. I'm assuming the front motor is a model 3 derived motor too.

The model 3 AWD basically uses most of the same parts for the front and rear motors except rotor and inverter.

The model Y is the same

The cybertruck will use the same motors

The Semi is using the same motors

Basically every vehicle tesla makes now is using the same fundamental motor design with some small tweaks. This will be 4-5 million of them next year.. Good fun.

 

[winfield100]

Average new car transaction price hits a record $45,031

It's the sixth consecutive month of record vehicle prices and represents a 12.1% increase (or $4,872 in cold, hard cash) over the same month a year ago and a 3.7% increase over the prior month.

www.autoblog.com

prices up and ICE vehicles “incentives”/bribes down ~50%

 

[Artful Dodger]

The model 3 AWD basically uses most of the same parts for the front and rear motors except rotor and inverter.

The model Y is the same

No, both the Models 3 and Y use AC induction motors in the front. The common cast housing just makes them simpler to switch over later. It's the Model S/X since the Raven update that uses the Model 3 SRPM motor in the front.

I do expect that the Model 3/Y Plaid will be released with carbon-wrapped SRPMs both front and rear, and the updated inverter (w. the pyro-fuse between the 3 phases per the @Ingineer video)

Further, I expect the Plaid Model Y to come first from Austin, and with its 80+ KWh 4680 pack I also expect Tesla to uncork the full power of the new carbon SRPM in those cars (likely 380+ hp each vs ~340 hp in the Plaid S.

This will be a fast car: Predicted quarter-mile in 10.6 sec @ 127 mph

Cheers!

 

[Huskyf]

Do you know something about Europe release we over here all don’t?

It's say at Giga Berlin when a person ask him "For Europe deploying beta ....next year sure next year"

 

[Buckminster]

MYP mid 22 in UK.
LR early 22.

LR from Shanghai and Performance from Berlin?

I have ordered one of each to be safe. LR from Berlin in April (new tax year) would be ideal. Also locking in a low FSD price but didn't feel like I was saving much with current overall prices...

 

[FS_FRA]

It's say at Giga Berlin when a person ask him "For Europe deploying beta ....next year sure next year"

2 weeks, 14 days tops!

 

[CorneliusXX]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1448883982775439360

Ordered. Have been waiting ages for the Y to come to the UK

 

[22522]

As someone who has been playing with FSD beta over the last few days, I would be interested in an explanation of how Tesla intends to overcome what appears (to me) to be a limitation with their FSD approach...

So, no dependency on hi-def maps using vision, right?

I had FSD take me on a route that required it drive out of a parking lot at a traffic light. This exit had 2 lanes on my side- the left lane went left and the right lane went straight or right. It was also at the top of a small incline at a traffic light. My route required being in the left lane to turn left. So FSD began to execute this maneuver, fairly slowly and turned right to begin the short drive up the incline where it needed to be in the left lane. Only it turned right into the right lane and then realized it needed to be in the left lane, so it cautiously started moving into the left lane, only it didn't have enough room before the light. So I sat at the red light kind of in both lanes.

So, here's the limitation I concluded: The car drove exactly like a first time driver that had never been at that intersection would have. But, once a "meat" driver learned that intersection, they would have learned how to handle it better and safer on subsequent drives. Their first encounter was probably riskier and not ideal but they would likely not perform the risky version on that intersection again. But FSD will be "seeing" that exact intersection for the first time...every time and likely making the rookie mistake because it's always seeing it for the first time. Tesla can't learn every unique intersection IMO, and I doubt it's poor performance would even get flagged as incorrect?

Am I missing something? How will Tesla learn the unique subtleties of the countless intersections across the world?

Elon used the phrase “overfit” or “oversampled.”

The cars are driving based on the collective mind of the fleet.

That is why Tesla wants to pattern off good drivers.

(Note: I am parroting off earlier posts in a readers digest kind of way. )

 

[CorneliusXX]

MYP mid 22 in UK.
LR early 22.

LR from Shanghai and Performance from Berlin?

I have ordered one of each to be safe. LR from Berlin in April (new tax year) would be ideal. Also locking in a low FSD price but didn't feel like I was saving much with current overall prices...

Good point, I better lock in a performance too, just in case.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla set to capture $390m in China's carbon market

Volkswagen ventures owe most in emissions trading, lacking green vehicles

asia.nikkei.com

Rob mentioned on his podcast today that the credits are likely to hit the P&L over a longer period of time and not just in the current quarter - something to be aware of for anyone prognosticating on quarterly earnings.

 

[15Peter20]

UK MY is cash purchase only. Presumably the finance etc deals will appear fairly soon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

(Mod-edited for anonymity) The class of 2016 engineer quoted talking about the Ultium batteries was a friend of mine in the EE major. We did homework together often and she's definitely smart and a hard worker. Last I talked to her in 2019, .... I got the impression she was mostly unaware of Tesla's impending dominance but it can be hard to see beyond the walls of the only company you've ever worked for.

I would also say in my experience that almost all the engineers Vandy puts out are elite, so it's not just credentials but is an actual strong correlation. The Vandy EE program in particular is brutally hard and those who can't cut it give up and change to easier majors. Also, Tesla hires Vandy engineering alumni too. However, I think Elon's big insight is to look at someone's actual ability and potential instead of solely relying on affiliation with an elite group. Graduation from an elite school can be a data point of evidence of exceptional ability; it just isn't enough on its own.

If it hasn't been mentioned, I would definitely delete this post citing someone name and opinions of a corporate working environment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA up substantially over top of strong macros in the early Pre-market:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,075.00 +37.75 (+0.25%)
As of 5:28AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 15, 2021 05:33 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$821.8 +3.48 (+0.43%)
Pre-Market Volume	36,497
Pre-Market High	$822.78 (04:38:22 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$820 (04:00:01 AM)

P.S. the DOW-30 (a.k.a. the Dow-Jones Industrial Average) looks to break 35,000 soon.

Cheers!

 

[elliott82]

Quick question, if I order a Model Y to lock in FSD price, can I postpone delivery indefinitely? Thanks

 

[mongo]

Vanderbilt was literally founded with the wealth of railroad tycoon Cornelius Vanderbilt, one of the richest Americans who ever lived.

Cornelius Vanderbilt - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Vanderbilt also burned the shorts of his day:
Vanderbilt and the Greatest Corner Never Told

The Story of Vanderbilt’s Hudson River Bridge

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Ordered. Have been waiting ages for the Y to come to the UK
View attachment 721736

Me too!

Opted for the blue. Roll on early 2022.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I need anti FUD help guys.

There is that financial independance group with a long standing member spreading constantly FUD about Tesla. He has been doing that over more than 3-4 years. He has shifted the view on Tesla for many Canadian MDs in the group over the years and has been bashing Tesla in the group of 10,000+ MDs. He has been praised as one the best investor over the years and the majority have been listening to his investment advices. He is deeply invested in oil and has just moved all his assets offshore because of the upcoming raise in capital gains from. Canadian government.

I have been enduring his anti-Tesla posts for couple years know but now it has reached a point of non sense that needs to be adresses. What approach would you recommend to counter his FUD? https://m.facebook.com/comment/repl...mention&notif_id=1634257519434959&ref=m_notif

He keeps linking CNN articles and his main arguments is that Chinese EV manufacturers bill beat Tesla price and quality and that nobody wants to own specifically a Tesla, that people want to own EVs and that’s what people are missing. He expects TSLA to reach a peak and collapse, he sold 75% of his position in 2020.