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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I’m starting to think wall st is waiting to see if there’s anything negative (cough Elon) on the earnings call and if not this thing shoots higher after the call wraps up

It would be a real pleasant surprise to have Zach give his normal measured but positive statements instead of Elon's ramblings on the near death of the company! If Zach simply guided a bit stronger on 2022 than they have been, Wall Street would react very positively on it. A simple hard number like "next year we plan to grow by 60% over the 50% guided over the longer term" would have a strong positive impact to the stock.
 
I love this graph from page 9:

View attachment 723757
Has anyone asked Elon what Tesla Energy production might look like if he could source as many cells as he liked? As in, what are we currently ready to produce if we ramped existing manufacturing capacity to absolute 100%? I feel like they could sell a nearly infinite number of megapacks if they could pump them out.

Same with Powerwalls obviously. My assumption 5 years ago was that cell costs would be so low by now, Tesla could sell Powerwalls at $4k and the line of customers would stretch to infinity. Cell costs are nearly low enough, but......nowhere near enough cells.

At some point I think we need to take a look at the Master Plan and realize cell production isn't getting enough attention. If we need to mine, lets mine. Whatever it takes. With $20B in cash sitting around and the ability to raise easily $100b more for free, we should be doing more. Clearly the market isn't moving as fast as Elon projected.
 
I’m starting to think wall st is waiting to see if there’s anything negative (cough Elon) on the earnings call and if not this thing shoots higher after the call wraps up
Yeah, this is bizarre. Since no one would be actively holding shares up, I have to assume someone is expending a modest amount of energy holding them down. Make sense or am I fanboi-ing?
 
The best quote from me was confirming guidance for growth: “Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries”.

So do the math:

2021 900K
2022 1.3M
2023 2.0M
2024 3.0M
2025 4.5M
2026 6.8M
2027 10.3M
2028 15.4M
2029 23.1M
2030 34.6M

Adam Jonas’ SP of $900 is based on 5.8M deliveries by 2030, with an added $150-200 to SP for each additional 1M deliveries.

So >28M more than AJ predicts X $150 = $4,200 more than his $900 PT = $5,100SP.

😳

HODL!