Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nolimits]

Yeah, if they flip MY production to Texas, I'm wondering how much M3 capacity that could open up in Fremont. After MY ramps in Giga BB, I think M3 could follow, but not in time for 2022.

Basically, I think Tesla may need to produce at least 100k more M3 than whatever they were planning before the Hertz order. This is not just because that order is 100k, but because the marketing effect of the Hertz fleet could substantially drive up M3 demand.

Speaking of marketing effect, I'm thinking that one Model 3 at Hertz could be rented out 2 to 4 times per week. This means a fleet of 100k Model 3 can generate 20 to 40 million high quality, immersive marketing exposures per year, along with word-of-mouth buzz. This has got to drive demand in ways that Tesla has heretofore never seen. Of course these exposures will likely drive demand for all Tesla models, but it could substantially alter the ratio of M3 to MY ordered. Tesla may want to have some flexibility to crank out Model 3 at a higher than expected rate.

On top of the marking effect, think about ALL the extra driving miles of real world data they will continue to collect? Powerful stuff.

 

[astrotoy]

Tesla does not advertise. However, Hertz does. Its decisions to buy 100,000 Tesla EVs, and feature Tom Brady in related ads are perhaps even more significant than some imagine.

I expect the reason Brady was chosen for the ads is his influence with viewers of televised NFL games, not to mention the upcoming World Series.

Furthermore, Hertz renters may become convinced to buy a Tesla, and suggest that their friends do so too.

Hertz has a history of having star NFL players featured in their ads. Back in the day they had Orenthal James Simpson, who would leap over a Hertz car in their ads.

 

[Open Interest]

Yeah, but you won't be able to open the doors

Dude, it’s like you know me!

 

[Open Interest]

I was never a car person. It was just to get places. My Tesla Model X changed all that. I make up reasons to drive places since I got it. But it still drives like a car. No key, just a fob or your phone or a key card depending on the model. Press on the brake and put it in drive (or in the newest it does that itself. And drive. You can even put it in Chill mode so it can drive like all the other just plain cars.

Ah, so that’s what chill mode is! Thanks, most helpful.

 

[BitJam]

Linette saying that we have a problem here.....not sure if i agree with her

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452760045272317952

The big difference is that Tesla did not give Hertz a discount. They bought the cars at the full retail price. This shows there is no demand problem. The only reason selling rental fleets is associated with a demand problem is that automakers usually give rental agencies a sizable discount.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well hopefully hertz gets a bulk rate on the destination and doc fee. Surely they’re not paying 1200 a pop for 100k cars.

Unless there is some special deal for corporations, the destination fee is legally required to be the same for everyone.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Linette saying that we have a problem here.....not sure if i agree with her

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452760045272317952

Scary that even Elon doesn’t understand the market.

 

[MC3OZ]

Agreed! The SR+ uses LFP batteries which can be routinely charged to 100% without degradation. This is the only battery that makes sense for rental vehicles. When people pick up the car they will want to see it at 100% charge and if/when they recharge they will often go up to 100%.

What I hope to see is, 4680 LFP cells for Model 3, Model Y, Model C (2?).

IMO Tesla should be able to get CATL and perhaps BYD or LG to make 4680 LFP cells.

Tesla should eventually be able to make 4680 LFP cells at Berlin and Austin, and Tesla should be able to add Model 3 and Model C to the Austin and Berlin factories.

Until everything on this list is done, (or a suitable proxy) Tesla will have an (excess) demand problem.

 

[Singuy]

Scary that even Elon doesn’t understand the market.

That's because he doesn't have a MBA..lol. He spends majority of his time cutting cost and scaling production. Doesn't realize how wallstreet values a company when margins become high, growth is sustained, and TAM is ridiculously large.

 

[Thomas Edison]

Hertz has a history of having star NFL players featured in their ads. Back in the day they had Orenthal James Simpson, who would leap over a Hertz car in their ads.

I bet he made a killing from the endorsement.

 

[Fobble]

Hard to imagine a few years go, eh?

View attachment 725803

World’s Richest Person Elon Musk Is Now Worth More Than Exxon

It’s just one more arresting data point amid a flurry of superlatives, but Elon Musk’s soaring net worth now makes him more valuable than Exxon Mobil Corp.

www.bloomberg.com

It's not fair to pick on EXXON. Bloomberg should say something like: "Elon Musk Is Now Worth More Than 3 Out Of Every 4 Of Dow Industrical Listed Stocks"

 

[jbcarioca]

I just checked for a March trip to Kauai, but they don't show any Tesla's available for rent.....yet. I'll keep checking.

After playing around on the Hertz site, some airports show Model 3's as an option but sold out for that week in March (Denver, LAX). Others don't show the Model 3 as an option at all (Kauai, Logan).

I did get a chuckle out of the Model 3 details saying "this model is guaranteed" as opposed to the standard "Chevy Malibu or similar" for the other classes of cars.

But there are several Model 3 with Turo in Kauai.
until Hertz receives at least half their order we’ll still often be depending on Turo

 

[OrthoSurg]

Hard to imagine a few years go, eh?

View attachment 725803

World’s Richest Person Elon Musk Is Now Worth More Than Exxon

It’s just one more arresting data point amid a flurry of superlatives, but Elon Musk’s soaring net worth now makes him more valuable than Exxon Mobil Corp.

www.bloomberg.com

The greatest achievement of Capitalism.

 

[madodel]

I bet he made a killing from the endorsement.

Too soon.

 

[WattsHappening]

Sold a couple of weeklies for the high IV

I know, pennies in front of a steam roller...

View attachment 725727

I know you won't take this the wrong way, but I really hope those get exercised on you.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I had conviction in a lithium mining company that was being developed here in Northen Quebec with well paying jobs. The CEO Bourassa even said during the shareholders meeting that they were on the track to respect the delays, everything was as expected. They predicted production 1 year out and we’re expecting to sell Lithium at a competitive price and demand was growing. I added to my position every pay check and reached a total of 100k when they announced December 24th, 2019 that they had 400M in unexpected cost and their technology to extract lithium spodumene did not work as planned and had to restructure the company and public investors got excluded. They were delisted from TSX and I lost my 100k investment in 1 day.

I learned from my mistake, I did the same with TSLA. Now I only trust US companies led by Elon Musk

Dang Doc, that's rough. I invested in SQM many years ago for the Lithium angle. The company leadership got caught in some shenanigans, I can't remember what they did, but I remember I lost a lot of money. No where near as much as you, maybe 5 grand, but it hurt. Unfortunately, I've required more than one lesson regarding investing in foreign companies.

 

[Model S M.D.]

Wen stock split?

Back after a long hiatus, congrats all long term investors. I am not sure why I am still working lol…. But feels good nonetheless, onward to 2T market cap!

 

[jhm]

Congrats to everyone who hasn't been selling off shares lately! I've managed to hold onto all my shares through the day. I feel like master of my own domain.

 

[RobDickinson]

 

[Prunesquallor]

I bet he made a killing from the endorsement.