Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Do you mean that today's Tesla stock price is 8x 2030 earnings meaning "overvalued by 8x"? Or do you mean that if you take ~20 factor for the overall market, Tesla still has a good portion of the growth in the next decade?

I find myself a little amused, by the numbers of some members here. Is it possible to have an annual production of 20 million cars? This means almost 2x the number of cars produced by Volkswagen (cca 9 million) or Toyota (cca 10 million) today. This number combines trucks and cars together. And that this number will be achieved by a couple of car models (SEXY + cybertruck + roadster + "small tesla")? How does this expectation bode with the "lower number of cars needed when FSD will take over" narrative?

I am not saying that Tesla is not able to achieve that, but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtale?

I'm saying I expect Tesla to make ~$120b in profit in 2030, which makes Tesla's value today at 8x it's estimated 2030 earnings. Today the S&P's P/E is ~35. Earnings at the S&P 500 companies will probably increase ~70% by then putting the market as a whole at ~20x estimated 2030 income.

I don't think Tesla will reach 20m cars by 2030, but they don't need to. I expect ~10-12m. By 2025 it will probably not be possible to grow auto revenue by 50% per year, but most of Tesla's revenue growth after ~2027 will come from Energy storage and robotics. There is a good chance robotaxis will reduce the required amount of autos manufactured every year to drop.

The global auto market is about $3 trillion, I suspect Tesla can eventually capture 20-25% of this. EV adoption will follow an S-Curve, with EVs being 50% of the market probably by 2028, and 90% by 2035.

Energy storage will probably be a $3 trillion per year market too (6 TWh/year at $50/KWh), Tesla can capture a similar percentage. I suspect it will take until the 2040s for this market to reach maturity. This is where most of the revenue growth will probably come from during 2027-2033.

Robotics is honestly where the biggest possible market out of all of these exists. By far. This is where most revenue growth will occur after ~2033. If Tesla can leverage it's existing skills to become the dominant player in this market.... hoo boy

 

[Mengy]

$600b revenue and $120b profit in 2030. (My estimates).

Today’s Tesla price is 8x 2030 earnings, compared with ~20 for the overall market

Um, $600 billion in revenue for Tesla in 2030 seems very low to me? My model is rather conservative and I'm projecting over $2 trillion in revenue in 2030, and given Tesla's growth projections for both auto and energy I believe I'm coming in low on what the reality will be?

 

[MXWing]

I came up with a new game. Every time Dan Ives says “Green Tidal Wave”, we drink a shot of Tesla Tequila

How many TSLA shares for a new liver?

 

[Singuy]

Do you mean that today's Tesla stock price is 8x 2030 earnings meaning "overvalued by 8x"? Or do you mean that if you take ~20 factor for the overall market, Tesla still has a good portion of the growth in the next decade?

I find myself a little amused, by the numbers of some members here. Is it possible to have an annual production of 20 million cars? This means almost 2x the number of cars produced by Volkswagen (cca 9 million) or Toyota (cca 10 million) today. This number combines trucks and cars together. And that this number will be achieved by a couple of car models (SEXY + cybertruck + roadster + "small tesla")? How does this expectation bode with the "lower number of cars needed when FSD will take over" narrative?

I am not saying that Tesla is not able to achieve that, but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtale?

Elon and Tesla has a plan to get there that's not publicly announced. We do get some bread crumbs on the how but that's about it. Don't bet against Tesla's guidance on manufacturing and their ability to move cars. Pre 2018 maybe, but not today.

 

[ZachF]

Um, $600 billion in revenue for Tesla in 2030 seems very low to me? My model is rather conservative and I'm projecting over $2 trillion in revenue in 2030, and given Tesla's growth projections for both auto and energy I believe I'm coming in low on what the reality will be?

As Tesla gets larger, it's growth rate will get slower at a certain point... You can't just carry 50% CAGR out to infinity. Elon himself makes fun of this mentality.

You start to get into extreme silliness with this in a short amount of time, like Tesla alone accounting for the majority of global GDP growth.

 

[Phobi]

Cheers to those buying on sale in the pre-market If I wasn’t switching brokers currently, I’d be diving in the couch and adjusting my leverage.

Lets go. HODL.

 

[Mengy]

As Tesla gets larger, it's growth rate will get slower at a certain point... You can't just carry 50% CAGR out to infinity. Elon himself makes fun of this mentality.

You start to get into extreme silliness with this in a short amount of time, like Tesla alone accounting for the majority of global GDP growth.

But, 20 million cars produced in 2030 DOES take less than 50% growth per year into account. If they were to grow production 50% YoY from 2021 on you'd get 33 million cars produced in 2030...

Tesla's guidance has been spot on so far with a bit of leeway for the timing of it, I tend to take them at their word.

 

[MXWing]

From a WSB post. Yes this is real. Not a paper trading account.

I would have a thrown a Vegas party for TMC if I could have been on the other side of this trade.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is already at work buiding the software infrastructure that will be required for the TN and in support of rental fleets like the Hertz deal:

Kim Paquette on Twitter: "@Hertz @TomBrady .@elonmusk so we walk up to our Hertz rental with our keycard, and the car is automatically configured to our driver profile and settings? " / Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@kimpaquette @Hertz @TomBrady That feature is coming" / Twitter​

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

Tesla is already at work buiding the software infrastructure that will be required for the TN and in support of rental fleets like the Hertz deal:

Kim Paquette on Twitter: "@Hertz @TomBrady .@elonmusk so we walk up to our Hertz rental with our keycard, and the car is automatically configured to our driver profile and settings? " / Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@kimpaquette @Hertz @TomBrady That feature is coming" / Twitter​

Cheers!

Honestly, the best thing about this will be exposing people to Teslas.

Teslas best advertisement is the car itself. Millions of people per year will rent these cars and think to themselves "You know, ICE is dumb..."

 

[redan]

Elon says Tesla soon to be a German car manufacturer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452970893785894921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452971377225576450

 

[ZachF]

Elon says Tesla soon to be a German car manufacturer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452971377225576450

Giga Berlin will be the largest factory in Germany. VW Wolfsburg makes ~700k cars per year.

Fremont is probably the largest US auto plant now (The previous largest plant was a Nissan plant at ~600k, and Nissan has been sucking wind lately), Austin will certainly be the US's largest factory and probably the largest in the world.

I don't know what the largest auto plant in China is, but it'll probably be Giga Shanghai someday if it isn't already.

The current largest plant in the world is a ~1.5m/y Hyundai plant in South Korea... That one plant produces ~1/3rd of the cars in South Korea! (Another interesting fact: that one car plant produces more income than the entirety of North Korea!)

(note: by "largest", I mean most units per year)

(EDIT- Also, I would not be surprised if ~3-4 years from now the three largest car plants in the world are Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai)

 

[WarpedOne]

German car manufacturers will rebound strongly

This is not the first time Elon was too optimistic... it is not about the (lack) of talent.

Germans will come up with great EVs but it will not really matter as it is not about how great an EV is. This is just the first step on the ladder.
It is about how many, at what price and when you can build them.
And how hard your old debt is burdening you.
And what infrastructure and network you are able to set up to support them.
And how open you are cannibalizing your self, how ready you are throwing away your v1, v2, v3 long before they even amortize just because you have a clear idea and path for v4.

Elon is just being nice and cautious.

 

[Stretch2727]

Elon says Tesla soon to be a German car manufacturer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452970893785894921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452971377225576450

Yeah, but I don't think German's ever considered Ford a German car manufacturer even though many Fords were manufactured and designed in Germany.

 

[Hock1]

Look into collateral based lending. Pledge shares as collateral, get money to fund your life/expenses, keep all of your shares. NFA.

I appreciate the advice but, I didn't need to sell shares for purchase. Being a long term hodler, and given my age, my pattern has been to scale out of a position over a period of time. 40% of my assets are in Tesla and 40% are in cash. That said, I believe we are in the 2nd inning of the greatest investment of a century, or maybe ever. GLTA

 

[Artful Dodger]

As Tesla gets larger, it's growth rate will get slower at a certain point... You can't just carry 50% CAGR out to infinity. Elon himself makes fun of this mentality.

You start to get into extreme silliness with this in a short amount of time, like Tesla alone accounting for the majority of global GDP growth.

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Rainmaker1973 Illustrates why Tesla sales will soon exceed mass of universe" / Twitter (9/27/2021)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It is about how many, at what price and when you can build them.
And how hard your old debt is burdening you.
And what infrastructure and network you are able to set up to support them.

Germans are really good at all that stuff. They'll be 5-7 years behind, but when they decide to move forward it'll be impressive.

 

[larmor]

Yeah, but I don't think German's ever considered Ford a German car manufacturer even though many Fords were manufactured and designed in Germany.

This just in: Tesla to become a US auto manufacturer after relocating from California to Texas…

 

[Mike Ambler]

Furthermore, Hertz renters may become convinced to buy a Tesla, and suggest that their friends do so too.

It would (will) be fascinating to see the stats on post rental purchase rate.

Agree 100% with Stealth, hundreds of thousands of "free" test drives per yr. This is gold rush territory.

 

[22522]

Yeah, but I don't think German's ever considered Ford a German car manufacturer even though many Fords were manufactured and designed in Germany.

Buying Grohman lock stock and barrel allows Germans to take more pride in the Tesla factory as theirs.

Elon has been working to address the feeling of ownership for a while. He may even move the headquarters there if need be.