Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

We have the Tesla Model Q/2/C/Mini to look forward to since The VP of Tesla in China hints that the lower priced model may not be that far away:

Tesla's $25k Car Model Could Come in Near Future, Says Company's VP in China

"I hope that in the near future, not only will Chinese-made models reach nearly 100% localized productivity, but we may also be able to witness models completely independently designed and manufactured by the Chinese team driving on Chinese roads. Next, we will continue to strengthen our technical cooperation with domestic industry chain partners and will increase the localization rate of the supply chain, and at the same time promote the integration of Tesla and China's local economy to achieve common development."

 

[Hock1]

With China numbers out for Oct, I am getting more confidence in 500k deliveries for Q4, 2022.

30 billion revenue . $4 to $5 EPS - $6 possibly ?

Could easily justify 2.5 to 3 trillion market cap. 100 PE for FY 23 of 25 to $30.

Question is when does market see this ?

Most experienced market followers do not use forward P/Es for evaluating hyper growth companies. Mostly because, by definition, P/E is a backward looking metric.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Everyone's wondering when Elon will sell his shares (or has he already started selling?). Once people know he's done selling (or not selling), the stock should recover. Well, until he tweets the next dumb thing.

Right now the headlines just indicate that the Musks are bailing out big time on Tesla. No mention of record quarters or profit margins or new factories. Everyone is razor focused on the Elon and his brother bailing on Tesla. Until Elon or somebody communicates that the sellout is over this is going to be a blood bath. It could have been handled so differently. But after this is over I think a lot of future investors will be pensive about investing in Tesla. We are super small players but know a few folks who are double digits of their portfolio into the company. At least a couple have said they’ll move onto a different investment...once the stock recovers a bit.

 

[SageBrush]

I was under the impression Tesla was “only” going to go from ~30 gigawatt hours/year battery production to 3,000 gigawatt hours (3 terawatt hours)/year a “ludicrously” high number by 2030,
now I read they are aiming for 5,000 gigawatt hours (5 terawatt hours)/year, a “plaid?” range high number,

Yeah ...
One of my ways to estimate TSLA revenue is to only estimate battery production value. It matches my underlying opinion that the unsung strength of Tesla is 1, their emerging battery production capability; and 2, their inherent ability to maximize battery value in multiple ways, not just cars.

I use a range of $50 - $100 per kWh value, so $0.05 - $0.1 per Wh
A TWh is 1E12 Wh

So each TWh of production is revenue in the range of $5E10 - $1E11, equal to $50B - $100B.
This revenue valuation is probably pessimistic but I like it because it discounts future uncertainty in general, and the almost forgone conclusion that battery prices will drop ~ 50% in the next 3 - 5 years.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon loves to screw with traders and people obsessing over numbers in a database. I just want my damn S Plaid. How can they deliver Semis in Q4 when they can’t even deliver my Plaid???

 

[Cult Member]

Just placed a limit order at 925 USD. Anyone lower?

 

[woodisgood]

Look at S&P squeeze from last December. After the dust settled (approx halfway back down) we did not recapture the ATHs from the peak for quite some time, as we all know.

Maybe this one is different but we’re probably waiting until at least the next fundamentals-based ratchet up (Q4) to head back towards 1200. With respect to surprise catalysts, I imagine Elon will also want to get as many new hires as possible on board (AI, Austin, Berlin) first.

 

[goinfraftw]

Anyone know what day Musk's trade settlement date is?

 

[SOULPEDL]

At least a couple have said they’ll move onto a different investment...once the stock recovers a bit.

A bit? That doesn't sound like informed investors. I think it takes a special risk/reward tolerance and many hours of reading to participate in TSLA investments. Many won't either have the time or stomach - their loss. Maybe they prefer GE or gold and silver? Or... more ETFs, ya that's the answer!

 

[brantse]

Elon loves to screw with traders and people obsessing over numbers in a database. I just want my damn S Plaid. How can they deliver Semis in Q4 when they can’t even deliver my Plaid???

Is there a big waitlist for Plaid S's still? A used one showed up at a very small used car lot near me in a rural part of PA a few weeks ago, in case anyone is really bent on getting one soon. I have no idea how or where they got it, but are asking just about sticker price for it with 1,900 miles.

 

[hobbes]

Despite the turmoil, BofA with a SP increase (from $1,000 to $1,200):

View attachment 731379

"Following TSLA´s... impressive stock run... we raise our price objectives for TSLA..." - that sounds like they´re actually admitting that the share price increase is what makes them increase their target rather than analysis ...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is there a big waitlist for Plaid S's still? A used one showed up at a very small used car lot near me in a rural part of PA a few weeks ago, in case anyone is really bent on getting one soon. I have no idea how or where they got it, but are asking just about sticker price for it with 1,900 miles.

Did it show up yesterday by chance? (If so, think I can guess what happened.)

 

[anthonyj]

Is there a big waitlist for Plaid S's still? A used one showed up at a very small used car lot near me in a rural part of PA a few weeks ago, in case anyone is really bent on getting one soon. I have no idea how or where they got it, but are asking just about sticker price for it with 1,900 miles.

There’s are people that ordered one 2 weeks ago that are getting their Plaid today. Then there are people who ordered in January without an EDD. Config doesn’t even matter. I saw someone order the same exact car and get it 2 weeks later

 

[woodisgood]

I’m not a fan of the Rivian IPO at offering levels, but I can see investors (traders) buying the argument that Rivian will double to $150B, even if it’s only hype, before Tesla doubles to $2T. In fact I bet they parrot this exact line on CNBS.

 

[Mengy]

I’m not a fan of the Rivian IPO at offering levels, but I can see investors (traders) buying the argument that Rivian will double to $150B, even if it’s only hype, before Tesla doubles to $2T. In fact I bet they parrot this exact line on CNBS.

It's possible, but then Rivian is having huge difficulties ramping production right now so who knows how they will actually perform long term.

If I had the spare money to buy the RIVN IPO I'd rather just buy more TSLA during this dip. Tesla is a certainty by this point, where Rivian is a large risk currently.

 

[Unpilot]

Greatest show on earth starting up again...enjoy!

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Just placed a limit order at 925 USD. Anyone lower?

You're an optimist. I think we keep bouncing off of $1000 for a bit. I liquidated some dead-money holdings in my trading account to buy into this dip. Waiting to pull the trigger but I've never been good at timing with any precision.

 

[ZachF]

Bad macro data re:inflation… now outpacing wages at 6%+

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458431507907874819

 

[bro1999]

I’m not a fan of the Rivian IPO at offering levels, but I can see investors (traders) buying the argument that Rivian will double to $150B, even if it’s only hype, before Tesla doubles to $2T. In fact I bet they parrot this exact line on CNBS.

Lucid now has a higher market cap than BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Stellantis...they've sold, what, like 5 cars?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Greatest show on earth starting up again...enjoy!

This is wild, trades executing at $988 one second and $998 the next……..