Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[3'sterly]

Talk about high paced conjecture.
My popcorn inventory is now shrinking rapidly and future orders are now projected to be unavailable into early 2022.
Thinking a side gig in the commodities pit may be in order.

 

[MP3Mike]

can't wait for their ER, also Lucid's.

You sort of got it already, since they had to release all of that information as part of the IPO process. (Which Lucid didn't do because they went IPO via a SPAC.)

 

[dl003]

You sort of got it already, since they had to release all of that information as part of the IPO process. (Which Lucid didn't do because they went IPO via a SPAC.)

Let me rephrase that: I can't wait to see how RIVN does after their next few ER's.

 

[MXWing]

People are completely missing the point when it comes to Rivian. The only question anyone cares about is:

Does RIVN get to 200 Billion mkt cap before TSLA gets to 2 Trillion?

I might take that bet if I just wanted to play a straight probability game.

However I am preferring to leave my buying power in with TSLA and TSLA options.

 

[EVDRVN]

Let me rephrase that: I can't wait to see how RIVN does after their next few ER's.

Price will double CNBC will make sure of that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla: Cult Psychology. Tesla is approaching a playground that previously only Apple played in.

Just read this article from a couple months ago, in Psychology Today."While it gets great product reviews, Tesla is mostly an experience" I wonder if the author ever drove a Tesla? Now that all the weak cultists have been chucked, cheers to all you members of this "Exclusive Club".

Oh boy, that one is a doozy of an embarrassment for whatever University issued her a doctorate degree in Psychology (apparently the University of Haifa). It reads more like a blog post written by an amateur than an article in Psychology Today so it's an embarrassment on that level as well. The hate towards Tesla will cause even reputable institutions to embarrass themselves.

One of her three premises:

Tesla does not run a campaign. It has no ads, PR, or test drives. Therefore, it creates an elite and closed community of customers.

In the world I know, reputable programs in psychology put a heavy emphasis on philosophy and logic. This premise fails basic logic miserably. It says that since Tesla does not indoctrinate everyone with ads and PR propaganda, that the Tesla community is a closed community. It makes no sense. It fails logic 101 because a closed community of customers (the cult) does not follow from a lack of a centralized disseminator of information. In fact, a characteristic of a cult is that the only truth comes from the top. When Ford spends millions of dollars on ads to create the narrative that their trucks are "Ford tough". We know because the company made sure to include lots of pictures of tough-looking men using the product to do tough-looking things. It must be tough! They wouldn't spend all that money to tell us it was tough if it really wasn't, right? Tesla doesn't spend money to indoctrinate us so....it's a cult?

Is this what Psychology Today has become? Oh my!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Received FSD beta last night. Amazing that it can do almost everything, but it's still very wonky and unsure of itself. I'm actually feeling better about that nagging worry of a crash and FUD headlines. Based on my very limited testing so far it's not good enough yet to for people to become lax and unaware. All in all it's very impressive and I will watch it closely as it improves.

Exactly how it should be treated at this point. Good luck! Can't wait for my invite.

Dan

 

[Lessmog]

Oh boy, that one is a doozy of an embarrassment for whatever University issued her a doctorate degree in Psychology (apparently the University of Haifa). It reads more like a blog post written by an amateur than an article in Psychology Today so it's an embarrassment on that level as well. The hate towards Tesla will cause even reputable institutions to embarrass themselves.

One of her three premises:



In the world I know, reputable programs in psychology put a heavy emphasis on philosophy and logic. This premise fails basic logic miserably. It says that since Tesla does not indoctrinate everyone with ads and PR propaganda, that the Tesla community is a closed community. It makes no sense. It fails logic 101 because a closed community of customers (the cult) does not follow from a lack of a centralized disseminator of information. In fact, a characteristic of a cult is that the only truth comes from the top. When Ford spends millions of dollars on ads to create the narrative that their trucks are "Ford tough". We know because the company made sure to include lots of pictures of tough-looking men using the product to do tough-looking things. It must be tough! They wouldn't spend all that money to tell us it was tough if it really wasn't, right? Tesla doesn't spend money to indoctrinate us so....it's a cult?

Is this what Psychology Today has become? Oh my!

To be clear, I'm not laughing at you, I'm laughing with you.

 

[NicoV]

Case in point:

View attachment 731833

Elon doesn’t give discounts. Not for cars, not for stock.

 

[BitJam]

I will pile on. From the Psychology Today article:

Although you do not need an invitation to buy a Tesla, if you want a test drive, you need to know someone who has a Tesla.

Yet Tesla has an online form to schedule a touchless test drive. This was the first result from a search for "tesla test drive".

 

[Lessmog]

I will pile on. From the Psychology Today article:

Yet Tesla has an online form to schedule a touchless test drive. This was the first result from a search for "tesla test drive".

And just to pile on further: Has the author of that piece even listnened to the Hai-fai in a Tesla?

 

[Opus BC fan]

It looks to me like the person executing share sales for Elon has figured out the algorithm.

 

[Lessmog]

It looks to me like the person executing share sales for Elon has figured out the algorithm.

Yes, seems to be a ringing transient response.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla: Cult Psychology. Tesla is approaching a playground that previously only Apple played in.

Just read this article from a couple months ago, in Psychology Today."While it gets great product reviews, Tesla is mostly an experience" I wonder if the author ever drove a Tesla? Now that all the weak cultists have been chucked, cheers to all you members of this "Exclusive Club".

The second group of Tesla buyers includes affluent men who want to feel young. The mid-life crisis has become a code name for jokes about men buying a Mercedes with an open roof or looking for a young woman. The Tesla makes it possible to get through the mid-life crisis in style.

The third, and smallest, group is made up of people who fell in love with the story Tesla tells, in the vision of Elon Musk. Tesla has a great story, perhaps the best on the market. A story about investing in sustainability, green energy, and a sustainable future where transportation is electric and energy is renewable.

Yeah we see this sampling even in this forum. Me in the 3rd group and the rest of you in the 2nd.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Yeah we see this sampling even in this forum. Me in the 3rd group and the rest of you in the 2nd.

No need to pick a fight.

 

[MP3Mike]

It looks like Waypoint support has finally been added to 2021.40.5:

Well, 2021.40.5 does not bring ARNR sadly ... @jebinc @WilliamG

But it has waypoints! So I guess that's a small win...

View attachment 731849View attachment 731851View attachment 731852View attachment 731853View attachment 731854

 

[Singuy]

People are completely missing the point when it comes to Rivian. The only question anyone cares about is:

Does RIVN get to 200 Billion mkt cap before TSLA gets to 2 Trillion?

I might take that bet if I just wanted to play a straight probability game.

However I am preferring to leave my buying power in with TSLA and TSLA options.

There will be a rug pull. Happens every time with all the hot IPO. The conversation I have with rivian and Tesla shareholders make me realize they are all investing based on dreams and wishes without any clue how valuation is derived. "Tesla has been overvalued since inception so investing in rivian shouldn't be any different. It will be a thousand dollars stock in 5 years. You should know better as a Tesla investor". I wanted to slit my wrist listening to that nonsense.

 

[elliott82]

It looks like Waypoint support has finally been added to 2021.40.5:

Elon hates it so much, he doesn't even want to call it waypoints.

 

[generalenthu]

Here is a headscratcher for any of you tax mavens, perhaps @st_lopes or @The Accountant

Lets start with some good numbers and I trust Matt Levine to do his due diligence, though his takes on Tesla might not be the most insightful.

Elon Musk Sold Some Stock

Also GE banking fees, Trump SPAC PIPE and Ozy investigations

www.bloomberg.com

So Elon has to exercise a bunch of options and immediately pay taxes on them, these are for 22.86 million shares, expiring next August. By all accounts the consensus was that he will exercise, pay taxes, and immediately sell a portion these highest cost basis shares to pay the taxes due. Perhaps about 17 million shares to fulfill his twitter promise.

According to the first two Form 4s, he exercised 2.15 million shares and sold 934k of them. So he would have 1.215 million shares to sell from that exercise. On Tuesday and Wednesday he sold another 3.6 million shares, and this math tells he sold perhaps as much as 2.4 million in ultra low cost basis shares triggering additional tax liability.

The only way this makes sense is if he has exercised more and has not filed a Form 4 for that and it would be really weird to file for a sale without a corresponding exercise. Anyone has a good explanation for this?

The article raises a bunch of nuanced questions, but there seems to be no reason to sell these low cost basis shares unless he plans to sell more than 22.86 million shares that he has to exercise from his 2012 options. Thoughts?

Edit: CC @Knightshade too.

 

[MXWing]

There will be a rug pull. Happens every time with all the hot IPO. The conversation I have with rivian and Tesla shareholders make me realize they are all investing based on dreams and wishes without any clue how valuation is derived. "Tesla has been overvalued since inception so investing in rivian shouldn't be any different. It will be a thousand dollars stock in 5 years. You should know better as a Tesla investor". I wanted to slit my wrist listening to that nonsense.

Very serendipitous point. I feel like I have to deploy the GM/F argument using Tesla in place of GM/F.
Tesla has
Production!
Positive Margin!
Positive Free Cash Flow!
Proven Products!

(all the bearish arguments AGAINST Tesla)

I wish I had the ability to articulate the differences better between F/GM vs TSLA vs TSLA vs RIVN/RIDE/FSKR/LCID/NIO (whatever symbols) but too much energy to bother.

Maybe if I signed off with a better signature, people will take up notice better.

--"Tesla investor here. Future wives' boyfriend of RIVN investors"