Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

Bought 10 more at $986.

The general consensus seems to be that the SP is going to be under pressure for the rest of the week and possibly going into our Thanksgiving. So the safer play would be to wait. But I agree with @SOULPEDL. And even if there are no immediate positive news, I am sure I will be happy with this move in the very near future.

Until Elon is done selling AND sentiment shifts back to the buy side. That shift could happen right way or it could take a while.

 

[Nocturnal]

Oh-oh... you bought bc of my hunch? Glad you could join, we sink or swim together on these.


Actually, there's never a bad time to buy TSLA, is there?

I swallowed the queasy feeling and sold some shares to convert to LEAPS, sold a couple puts, and bough back some CCs I had sold. Dry powder is there to buy in if the dip gets more serious.

Tesla investors have to accept that we can lose 20% randomly if Elon has a bad day. It's just part of the deal. (doesn't mean I like that he does this)

 

[dl003]

Maybe read the post I wrote right after that?

Not every investor is in the same position and has the financial ability to just wait out volatility that the CEO himself created

Just because you're in a great position financially doesn't mean others are and I quite frankly get annoyed at that attitude.

Trust me when I say this: I leveraged up right before the poll and I'm sure I'm in a much bigger mess than your friend is. BUT, this thing is poised to go higher, much higher in the future. So, your friend has the choice to tap other sources of fund and leave his TSLA holding alone. Nobody is truly in a life or death situation where selling TSLA is the only viable choice. If someone's cornered themselves into that, that would be their own shortcoming. We each have to take responsibility for our actions. Elon didn't even say the stock was too high. He has the right to decide how and when to sell his stocks, just like we have the right to retain him as the steward of our future and wealth. Everything has a cost and this is the cost of owning TSLA.

 

[StealthP3D]

Happy Monday ya bunch of bickering Malcontents.

Looks like 1k is da floor.

The beatings will continue until the selling suddenly stops. Anyone want to guess what happens to the share price when this happens?

Those who know me know that I believe trying to guess short-term price moves is generally a fools errand but that occasionally a situation develops in which it becomes suddenly apparent there is a lot of (relatively) low-risk profit to be had. This may be one of those times coming up shortly. Maybe as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

Think about it. Elon is not stupid, when he considers when might be a good time to unload a huge number of shares his goal is not to maximize the value of those shares but to sell during a rising market when he knows there is further good news yet to be discovered while still getting reasonably good value for his sales. Selling after a major runup, when all the good news is known, causes the rally to crash and crash hard. He becomes the goat and is investigated for greed and wrong-doing. He really can't get top dollar for sales this large. He needs rising demand when he is finished selling.

I suspect he might make use of both the public markets (to bring the share price down into a workable range) and also the private selling that GB would prefer. Always make the best use of all the tools in your toolbox. I think when the smoke clears we will find that Elon unloaded 35-60% of his shares in big private deals. When it becomes apparent the selling is done, the share price will rally strongly and good news about company performance will further extend the rally. I don't expect this to drop below 900 (although a brief pass through that level at the grand finale is not completely out of the question). Those with capital waiting to deploy would likely be extremely well served by deploying it when things start to look a bit scary. The trick is knowing when but I think as this unfolds it might become easier if one can avoid the fear that causes one to wait too long and miss out. I think even right here in the $980's is a good point although it wouldn't surprise me to see one more substantial drop, maybe down to the mid $900's.

Given the particulars surrounding TSLA right now, I would be tempted to act sooner rather than later as I suspect the fundamental supply/demand will remain quite favorable, especially when the beatings come to an end (soon). Elon does not mess around, he gets the job done without undue pussy-footing around.

 

[StealthP3D]

I swallowed the queasy feeling and sold some shares to convert to LEAPS, sold a couple puts, and bough back some CCs I had sold. Dry powder is there to buy in if the dip gets more serious.

Tesla investors have to accept that we can lose 20% randomly if Elon has a bad day. It's just part of the deal. (doesn't mean I like that he does this)

I don't need to accept that I can lose 20% randomly from a bad day. In fact, I am in control of my selling.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Probably to load up on TSLA.

That’s what they *should* be doing. Instead they’re probably loading up on RIVN (+14%, mkt cap $144B)

 

[Singuy]

The gap between $6 and $1100, or whatever the actual net weighted averages turn out to be, won't look so big in 5-10 years.......unless Congress converts capital gains tax rates to ordinary income rates and all our entrepreneurs move to Monte Carlo/Caymans/Cyprus, etc.

Elon could have sold his newly exercised shares which had a cost basis of over 1100. This prevents him from paying an additional 4 billion dollars in taxes today. We have to think of all of Elons money as shares, and he just lost 4M additional shares today to taxes when it's not required. Those 4M share if X 5 in value then he lost 20 billion dollars of future asset today hence money he will never get back.

 

[petit_bateau]

That's why I was looking at just the 20 minutes of each day when demand peaks. It wouldn't be homogeneous across time. For instance demand from 2 AM will be less than 5 PM.

However, any real distribution that's similarly shaped at all, whether Gaussian, normal, weibull or some other bell-shaped blob, the point is that the larger scale system will experience lower probability of overload for a given average capacity factor. The extreme case of this in my 70% capacity factor example is a one-stall station with on average a 70% chance of being used. Such a station would have a wait time very often.

So, making the supercharger network bigger benefits all participants including Tesla owners.

Not necessarily.

I understand your point about the potential for overloads reducing, but that depends on a number of assumptions you are making in order to be correct.

Firstly you are assuming that the contention ratio of the non-Tesla fleet will be the same as the contention ratio of the Tesla fleet. At the moment the Tesla fleet is at 69 vehicles per connector. So if in any localised area Tesla were to oversell subscriptions (say 600-per connector) then the non-Tesla fleet would tend to swamp the existing connectors, and I'd hazard a guess that the connector-build-out wouldn't ramp fast enough in that localised area to get it under control before Tesla-brand suffered.

Second you are assuming the dstribution assumptions hold true (whether Poisson, Gaussian, or others of the same ilk). But in th ereal world of humans they probably won't. Clustering effects will cause swamping etc. as humans do stuff in the real world that violate the assumptions (football matches, factory holidays, school half terms, etc). In the long run Tesla could build-out the network to cater for this, but in the intervening 3-4 years considerable damage can be done in key geographies.

So I don't think your maths is appropriate (though I do agree with the maths itself). The maths does not prove this issue either way.

This not to say that I either disagree or agree with opening up the Tesla network. I can see both the advantages (of which there are many) and the disadvantages (also obvious), and various aspects that are both within and without of Tesla's control in managing this. And until/unless we have visibility on network use data we can't really form a decent view ourselves.

I'm gobsmacked that very little of the investor calls press for better data on either the Supercharger network or on the Energy play. It is almost as if the analysts don't know what questions to ask.

 

[replicant]

The Bernie logic assumes all risks are equal but there's rational that founder and early employees hold significant more shares because the risk they have to take.

Those shares can quickly evaporate if the things go south. It wasn't long time ago that Elon wanted to sell Tesla to Apple on the brink of the death.

People seems to conveniently forget about the history when TSLA achieves ATH. The battle of survival has long from over.

Now as US descent into partisan fights, we cannot seem to discuss basic math and numbers without taking sides.

You're replying to me but do you really I forget what happened, or that I assume all risks are equal? I've put all my savings into TSLA since 2012 and read every single post of the ~general investors' thread on TMC. I know very well I could have lost it all. I've also founded a startup in that period. But that's not the point.

I know have several millions of $ (b/c I took risk) and I don't plan to sell (at least not for me). I'm a French citizen and since 2012, tax rate on the rich has decreased while poverty is increasing. Why the risk I took earlier should prevent me from helping these in troubles? What the point of not paying tax when one does not need that much money for oneself or when the country's troubles are so intense that any private initiative (ex: funding space exploration or mars colonies) will keep being more and more difficult as inequalities grow so much the social fabric is being torn apart?

As to "US descent into partisan fights": this is not exclusive to the US. Not a bit. Here in France, we have a proud fascist at the door of the presidency. Zemmour and Lepen (far right) together already have more than 51% of voting intention. That's not even counting the regular right, whose candidate keep going to the extreme. The media keep giving them an overwhelming tribune to a point no one else except Macron can be heard (Zemmour is a pure product of the media). Even if Zemmour or Lepen does not become president, the "partisan fights" are only beginning and well beyond NorthAm.

 

[woodisgood]

I hope Tesla is managing to onboard a lot of great talent during this time period. It would be a wasted opportunity if they didn't.

 

[jerry33]

Trust me when I say this: I leveraged up right before the poll and I'm sure I'm in a much bigger mess than your friend is. BUT, this thing is poised to go higher, much higher in the future. So, your friend has the choice to tap other sources of fund and leave his TSLA holding alone. Nobody is truly in a life or death situation where selling TSLA is the only viable choice. If someone's cornered themselves into that, that would be their own shortcoming. We each have to take responsibility for our action. Elon didn't even say the stock was too high. He has the right to decide how and when to sell his stocks, just like we have the right to retain him as the steward of our future and wealth. Everything has a cost and this is the cost of owning TSLA.

Sure, I've sold some TSLA to cover things when, in hindsight, I could have held on and sold a few weeks or months later. But I also know that TSLA can either leap tall buildings with a single bound or plummet into the abyss on a moment's notice. So I can only do what seems safest at the time. No regrets, no complaints.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't need to accept that I can lose 20% randomly from a bad day. In fact, I am in control of my selling.

Ehh, mostly agree so fair point. But you understand what I mean.

 

[replicant]

But ... Elon is the opposite of Wall Street.

So we must ask ourselves why do they target Elon Musk (Planet saving, self made entrepreneur working 100h a week) but ...
- not Bill Gates (retired former Monopolist and recent Epstein buddy),
- not Walton Family (who just lucked out with Inherited Wealth without ever working much)
- not actual Wall Street like the owners of Blackstone, JPMorgan Chase, The Carlyle Group or Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts ?

Once we ask this question the answer is clear: It is not really about tax dollars and it is not about inequality.

It is politics.

Because he's now the richest man on Earth, and is expected to be far more richer in the near future?

So much straw man (Epstein...), I won't even discuss

Also, taxes and inequality are 100% political matters. Do you really expect such topics to be addressed on Twitter without any of the low-level political tactics? Elon is the first to enjoy adding fuel to the fire, and he's playing politics too (remember when he sat on Trump's council or defended Rex Tillerson?).

 

[Jack6591]

A little good news…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kcra.com/amp/article/california-gas-prices-hit-a-record-and-sacramentos-prices-are-even-higher/38254381

 

[gillfoto]

Are you talking about the mob of traitors that attempted an insurrection in January ?

Now that's the correct use of the word - 'mob' :
a large crowd of people, especially one that is disorderly and intent on causing trouble or violence.
"a mob of protesters"

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm sure it's been mentioned how TLSA SP is an important variable in being able to provide hiring incentives. And in this case he could be lowering the baseline to get some key players into the company.

Is there any data suggesting a hiring blitz (like in the new factories)?
And are employee options given only during hiring, or are there ongoing stock incentives that are tied to the calendar (like performance reviews etc...)? Do we know their internal dates on this by chance?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm sure it's been mentioned how TLSA SP is an important variable in being able to provide hiring incentives. And in this case he could be lowering the baseline to get some key players into the company.

Is there any data suggesting a hiring blitz (like in the new factories)?
And are employee options given only during hiring, or are there ongoing stock incentives that are tied to the calendar (like performance reviews etc...)? Do we know their internal dates on this by chance?

Almost always, your signing bonus in stock is significantly more than what any you would get on your performance reviews. To the order of 5-10X.

 

[brantse]

I wonder how uncle Leo is doing? Hopefully he won't find himself at risk of another margin call.

 

[jerry33]

Almost always, your signing bonus in stock is significantly more than what any you would get on your performance reviews. To the order of 5-10X.

Correct. You have to change jobs to get any significant increase.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

1. maybe making people realize that taxing billionaires progressively (even at high rate) does not actually affect growth and innovation, especially in a country like the US (who would claim that Elon led Tesla for money?)

I remain unconvinced. I think it would be wise to prove this hypothesis, on smaller scale, maybe in a friendly jurisdiction with high need for poverty alievation.

How about Bernie makes a "policy test run" ...say in Cuba, they sure have lots of poverty. He can redistribute capital from the local rich to the broader society and see how it impacts productivity.

<NVM ... it appears to have already been done... the tests results are somewhat inconclusive. >