Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[rexki]

No, only partially. If cancelling and reordering gets me the 8K rebate, I could upgrade to red with white interior and still be ahead despite a higher base price.

8K might be high from what I heard last - 4K or 4.5K was last wind I heard ??

 

[Ohmster]

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Absolutely nothing new here. Those of us in operations/fullfilment who have uncoupled stock price/Wall Street and production/output realized this years/decages ago. The heavy quarter end push is nothing but a shell game that nets a loss over any perceived gains.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

8K might be high from what I heard last - 4K or 4.5K was last wind I heard ??

Tesla extended my delivery until January so I have until then to decide. Fingers crossed, hoping for reliable information to make my decision.

 

[tivoboy]

Country music hasn't caught on to Tesla yet. Austin factory is a good start though.

I was thinking more like this...;-)

 

[rexki]

Absolutely nothing new here. Those of us in operations/fullfilment who have uncoupled stock price/Wall Street and production/output realized this years/decages ago. The heavy quarter end push is nothing but a shell game that nets a loss over any perceived gains.

Pretty sure extra cost are cash basis paid in the quarter cost with some accrual cost that are not paid at cutoff. Not sure when they book the revenue of the sale but guessing its a function of cash basis paid in full cars (taken delivery by cutoff) and financing contracts that accrue once delivery is accepted by end customer. Should be no shell games if I were their auditor - we test sales contract source documents for the accuracy of the revenue accruals very carefully in my day.
Lets hope the internal audit team at Tesla are CPA serious auditors!

 

[Fred42]

People are still complaining about the things that were said in Michigan, and I still don't see why it's important. It's Tesla that's making cars in large numbers and with large margins, and (absent unknown virus impact) the numbers will greatly increase in 2022 and 2023, and no one else is close to where Tesla is. Other people bleating and pointing in another direction doesn't change this.

 

[st_lopes]

How many people are Beta testing now. Is it still a 1000?

It’s over 11,000. There was an official NHTSA issued “recall” of I believe 10.3 which disclosed that over 11,000 vehicles were affected.

My guess is we’re over 20,000 by now since the intent was to keep increasing the number of drivers each day.

Edit: Version thanks @Todd Burch

 

[st_lopes]

More reflections on that utterly nauseating Slate article by Scott Woolley on how Tesla was worse than Solyndra. From the article's summary final paragraph:

Here’s hoping that proves true. In the meantime, the question of how to compensate taxpayers for Tesla-esque successes remains a distinct issue, one that the government would do well to pay more attention to the next time it plays venture capitalist.

No, Mr Woolley, that question most certainly does not remain "an issue". The marvelous success that is Tesla means that just this past month US taxpayers have been massively compensated by many billions just from one person alone, and the other resultant dollars that are and will be flowing to the US Treasury over the decades to come from the hundreds of billions - or trillions - of capital gains taxes are exactly the perfect kind of outcome that thoughtfully-considered pump-priming by the government is capitalism, occasionally tweaked by government, providing a win-win for all: private shareholders AND US taxpayers.

Were Mr Woolley's ill-thought-out platform to have occurred, then the resultant seats on Tesla's corporate board would have been the kind of governmental oversight damper that, far from championing pioneering activity, squelches same and ensures mediocrity. Germany's experience so clearly being shown with Volkswagen right now is the perfect counter-example that further provides proof of same.

You were far more eloquent than I would have been on how laden with bias and misinformation that article was.

Easy there fella, a typical Tesla employee is more likely to pay 0% federal income tax than 50%.

Obviously til now Elon has paid essentially zero to the US govt.

Sales tax goes to the state, generally to pay for public education.

Taxpayers have benefited immensely from Tesla’s success. 100,000+ directly through employment, 100s of thousands more through being contractors and service providers, and nearly every individual employee and contractor will pay a significant personal tax burden Federally and to California, Nevada, or New York (and do begins the government machine of wealth redistribution that arguably benefits EVERY taxpayer). That’s on top of various sales taxes levied on consumers buying the cars, solar, storage, etc. products.

And no, until now Elon has not paid zero. This is not the first time he has exercised options and/or sold shares. He also paid boat loads on his last exits of PayPal, Zip2, and other endeavors. That again on top of any sales taxes he has paid from his consumption of goods and services (eg, private jets and security aren’t cheap and believe me their use comes with a lot of tax generation).

So, not sure why “Easy there fella” was necessary…

 

[MP3Mike]

The Freemont (factory pickups) large party tent with the Sales tax waiver form for out of state driver pickups would easily take 10% of the load off the long distance logistics system and allow for smoother flows for over the Rockies destinations.

Only problem with that is there is no sales tax waiver for cars delivered in California. If you take possession in California you pay California tax. (There was an attempt to get them to change that to encourage tourism while people come pickup their car at the factory, but that died.)

 

[Jack6591]

Canceling All Subsidies…

The two certainties of life, death and taxes; in my experience, politicians can be counted on, with certainty, to maximize taxes. Doesn’t canceling subsidies have the effect as assessing new taxes? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I’m confusing revenue and expenditures, but doesn’t one directly effects the other?

Growing closer and closer to the EV tipping point, growing closer and closer to Full Self Driving, disruption of world economic models is upon us. The latency of political will relative to technological evolution is like watching lava flow into the ocean; it takes time to build a new land. However, in the coming years, ”canceling all subsidies” will become far more viable. The political will to do so will grow exponentially once the demise of fossil fuel becomes apparent.

Imagine a world without subsidies, imagine a world where technological evolution and ingenuity reign supreme. For years, we have lauded ourselves as “just getting it.” The question becomes, what hath Tesla’s “Master Plan” wrought?

 

[elasalle]

BTC - the only thing tradeable over weekend is up 2.3%
- likely good indicator of how market will perform Monday
Cheers!!

 

[jbcarioca]

Easy there fella, a typical Tesla employee is more likely to pay 0% federal income tax than 50%.

Obviously til now Elon has paid essentially zero to the US govt.

Sales tax goes to the state, generally to pay for public education.

I like to agree with you but this time you're completely incorrect. Both social security and Medicare taxes are direct income taxes, in addition to FIT.
"Obviously..." is something that is quite distinctly not in evidence. There are claims, but not supporting facts.
Sales taxes, property taxes and other taxes are levied at various levels from purely local, country, regional and State to numerous special taxing entities (Texas alone has 303 a couple decades ago).

Many people generalize about 'taxes' or 'income taxes' with little idea of reality.

I do not desire to be rude, but encourage people to actually look at total tax burden including FIT before making assertions about who does or does not pay taxes.

That said, total tax burden as a proportion of total income is quite regressive in most parts of the US and in a large number of other countries.

As a taxpayer in multiple countries I can affirm that the US is less regressive than in some other places where I have paid taxes.
Key distinctions generally ignored are distinctions between property (huge variety of definitions, including vehicles or all types), use, purchase, wealth and income taxes. Unless all those are considered it is facile and often in error to talk only about income taxes at a national level.

 

[Krugerrand]

I can't help but wonder if this email from Elon is related to my Model Y delivery moving from Aug '22 to Nov '21. Specifically, could Elon be trying to provide cover for a sudden drop off in demand due to buyers delaying until next year because they want the rebate?

That's what I'm doing and I might even cancel my order then re-up.

Thanks

 

[jkirkwood001]

For those looking to scan the results of the TMC investors survey after closing their session, try here, TMC investors survey summary (please first complete the survey if you haven't already, but do not complete a 2nd time).

Thanks to @steve3 for the request.

 

[tivoboy]

Many people generalize about 'taxes' or 'income taxes' with little idea of reality.

I do not desire to be rude, but encourage people to actually look at total tax burden including FIT before making assertions about who does or does not pay taxes.

I think you might not actually be referring to FIT (or SIT for that matter) taxes, but rather FICA and other payroll taxes like social security & medicare that every W-2 employee ends up paying regardless of what their actual FIT taxes are at the end of the year or when they file. Many filers end up paying NO / ZERO FIT taxes by the time they file for a refund (employers are required to take FIT/SIT taxes but employees with low incomes or high deductions can get most if not all of it back. But, everyone ends up paying SOME FICA tax regardless of income thresholds or marginal tax bracket. Even with credits returned - earned income, child tax credit, etc., nobody gets their FICA payroll taxes back.

 

[tivoboy]

For those looking to scan the results of the TMC investors survey after closing their session, try here, TMC investors survey summary (please first complete the survey if you haven't already, but do not complete a 2nd time).

Thanks to @steve3 for the request.

The fact, at least from this data, that nearly 13.5% of the current respondents own AT LEAST 12M$ worth of Tesla stock is:
surprising?
refreshing?
concerning?
alarming?
inaccurate?
fabulous?

 

[MikeC]

Elon’s full email:

 

[OrthoSurg]

The fact, at least from this data, that nearly 13.5% of the current respondents own AT LEAST 12M$ worth of Tesla stock is:
surprising?
refreshing?
concerning?
alarming?
inaccurate?
fabulous?

interesting that TMC members probably hold over 1B$ conjointly

 

[wtlloyd]

BTC - the only thing tradeable over weekend is up 2.3%
- likely good indicator of how market will perform Monday
Cheers!!

As an indicator that money will be moving out of equities, ya?

 

[lafrisbee]

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An Ant would see this differently.
An ant is of the opinion that Elon knows this years goal is in the bag and then some. This year will be remembered as a great increase. Now he is thinking about next year... Getting off to a good start. Imagine what the first quarter of 2022 could look like if Austin and berlin add decent quantities.