Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

You are just...not a useful poster. You attack anyone that is not an absolute fanboy with blinders. Take the blinders off, Tesla service is not great and in solar it is the worst in an industry with lots of issues. The worst. In automotive it is ok but very inconsistent.

But instead of simply attacking view contrary to your own maybe you could expound on how you actually believe Tesla will deliver on a decent robotaxi experience and avoid the failures of service in the other aspects of the business that are much less high touch. I'm always interested to learn more information on how they will surge past a high point of failure. Oh and while you are at it explain to me why Tesla solar is still an arm pit of bad service? Perhaps you can explain to us all how you have led extensive service teams, delivering high touch service with some basis in excellence. I'm all ears, or eyes. Anyone can cheer Tesla, we all do. Helping understand why Tesla is powerful, what's unique and what is a problem is what makes the forum useful. I'm all aquiver waiting on a thoughtful post on how Tesla will address robotaxi experiences. I expect I will be disappointed because your posting history is one of attacks and fanboy regurgitation, neither of which are helpful to anyone investing in Tesla. However, I hold out the possibility that I may be wrong. Stun me with your solution to Teslas robotaxi service conundrum.

No, I attack ideas that don't make sense. If you don't like it, then don't post flimsy reasons why Tesla will not succeed at certain things. Hint: Cleaning up puke and poop is not a good reason.

Most of us have lived through hundreds of naysayers all telling us how Tesla could never succeed against the bigger, more powerful forces they were up against. We patiently explained why their reasons don't hold water. But I refuse to go into detail on why keeping a taxi clean is not a deal-breaker. You keep making it personal - it's not. It's about ideas. Deal with it.

Maybe you want TMC to look like Twitter. I don't.

 

[UncaNed]

Yep most of the market just took a sharp nosedive, not sure why though.

Not necessarily a coincidence?

As TSLA grows to a bigger proportion of the total market, won't it make more sense for MM's or someone to manipulate TSLA to their liking by manipulating the whole market, especially during events like expected P/D and earnings reports like this?

 

[BornToFly]

Hertz week had a sharp rise partly because of a Call induced gamma squeeze. I'm sure people are buying OTM calls like crazy, and will be all week, for the ER. This should cause another large pop in the SP in the next few weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

1155 seems to be the new 300.

It keeps getting pushed down whenever it crosses.

Lol, you need some 7 league boots to kick some shortzes in the shorts...

Cheers!

 

[Gigapress]

We are buyers of this sort of industrial equipment and are pleased that we see some nascent attempts to electrify small farm tractors, lawn mowers, chainsaws, and even a skidsteer (Slovakian company).

However, it is going to be hard to electrify at scale so for modeling I would use the light vehicle market space and not include industrial. Take our forestry equipment. We work and park sometimes miles from a powerline and we move every month, depending on market forces. We might use 100 gallons of diesel a day per machine and we bring that to them in a F350 with a fuel transfer tank. Not the thread for detailed problem analysis but its a real problem when thinking of electrifying.

If Tesla, or anyone, could realistically derive a solution whereby we could replace diesel in a heavy equipment application it would significantly increase the addressable market space. I think farm tractors would be an application especially now that LiFe are coming. Farm tractors generally go to a barn or equipment yard every evening like cars.

Although this was not found in the Master Plan, neither was the Teslabot, which came as a logical extension of their computer vision capabilities from FSD development. Likewise, heavy gas and diesel industrial equipment would be a logical extension of Tesla's development of motors and high nickel 4680 batteries.

The light vehicle and semi truck markets are higher priority for now, but in the long run battery supply will be abundant and inexpensive enough that it'd be cost effective to bring extra batteries to the job site and swap them out when drained, much as one might do today with a cordless drill during heavy construction work.

Today: F-350 delivering 100 gallons of diesel to the forest job site every day for a month

Future: Cybertruck carrying solar panels and spare batteries to the forest job site once and leaving it there until a month later when it's time to move

I would not be surprised if many jurisdictions eventually ban diesel equipment for occupational health and safety reasons, due to the hazards of flammability, toxic fumes, toxic spills, and noise.

For Tesla investors with a multi-decade time horizon, I expect industrial mobile equipment to be a substantial portion of the business worth analyzing. It's probably bigger than insurance IMO.

 

[2daMoon]

It is looking like TSLA may turn it up to 11! (%)

Next thing you know, we'll all be buying Stonehenge models with our gains.

 

[Pezpunk]

Not necessarily a coincidence?

As TSLA grows to a bigger proportion of the total market, won't it make more sense for MM's or someone to manipulate TSLA to their liking by manipulating the whole market, especially during events like expected P/D and earnings reports like this?

Is this really how paranoid and insular this forum has become? Believing in magical, invisible, monolithic entities that can crash the entire stock market at a moment's notice just to stick it to Tesla? If such godlike entities existed, they would have crushed Tesla long before now.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It is looking like TSLA may turn it up to 11! (%)

Next thing you know, we'll all be buying Stonehenge models with our gains.

You're just being silly.

How does this compare with other moves? Not greatly concerned, as HODLer... but

 

[Krugerrand]

Stun me with your solution to Teslas robotaxi service conundrum.

There is no conundrum. Zip. Zero. Nadda. What there is is a story you’ve told yourself full of high drama. You think there’s no solution for a problem that doesn’t actual exist.

Don’t fool yourself thinking you’ve foreseen problems that Tesla hasn’t already or that you’ve come up with problems that can’t be solved. You’d be wrong.

 

[pitabun]

Why thank you CNBC, LOL.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you know what the distance driven on the pack was? Mr Google is not helping me with that one detail. Cheers.

Sorry, I did read a number, but can not recall it. I do recall that it was a high-mileage pack and was out of warranty. This was a pure PR stunt. I think the owner of the car also owns a chain of ICE dealerships too (or some such).

 

[Rarity]

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the Robotaxi model. I share it. But all I can say is go ask an Uber driver about cleaning- that is with someone in the car with the offender. I don't care about liability or responsibility just that it has to be done. Someone pukes in a robotaxi and it is not going to just clean itself. Same when they piss on the seats. Or when they spill the venti vanilla and leave a seat covered in a sticky mess. AND THEY WILL. The vehicle then goes back to some facility to be cleaned. Say it is not cleaned well and the next rider finds his hand stuck on some puke. I'm a believer in the robotaxi model, I think it is a massive need to address global warming. I just don't think Tesla, as it currently exist, has a culture that would deliver an excellent robotaxi experience. I also believe that robotaxis when more than just novelty will create a significant backlash and this will require some...savvy and political nuance and EM has not shown himself too good at that. As each robotaxi replaces several cars it is great for the mission but I think will be a challenge to implement. The average buyer is still a zealot. They BELIEVE. A robotaxi user just wants to go from a to b.

Why am I skeptical? Tesla has not succeeded at everything but especially when they are in a high consumer touch experience. Just look at the Solar Roof and even Solar panel business. Failure after failure and it is a long long string of failure. Tesla's strength has been executing on rapidly manufacturing cars. EM views Teslas greatest differentiator as the ability to manufacture. Robotaxis are a service and Tesla...well Tesla service across all aspects of the organization...sort of sucks. I have a CT reservation despite qualms on Tesla service. I don't have a Tesla Roof because Tesla could not deliver and wasted a lot of time. I am waiting now on alternatives. Likely fixed ground panels and a steel roof.

Robotaxi business is going to be just as new to Tesla as solar roofs and just as prone to failure thus I'm a fan but am not sure if Tesla would be better off creating a standalone entity to actually own that business. Not committed to any POV just that right now it seems high risk based on Tesla working outside wheelhouse.

Take another EM company, the boring company. I don't see cities beating down the doors to get tunnels built ( I too had thought of boring companies after consulting for 1 of the large ones). So solar and boring have not done well. Even in Tesla automotive they did not plan for adequate battery capacity, 4 years ago, for the production they have built and achieved. Why? They have the best team out there for EVs, hands down. They have done a phenomenal job at addressing the EV space. I think that they have finally got a clue regarding FSD but it has taken 4 years of floundering around (and that's fine it just is what it is) but they are several years from a product that would allow a robotaxi. Years. Then throw a culturally different model at the robotaxi space, it is a hospitality type experience. There is nothing whatsoever in the Tesla/Solarcity history book that would give me high confidence that Tesla will address this in a manner that will cause robotaxis to succeed. I just think it is a different experience than manufacturing.

I don't think that anybody can identify which are the mountains and which are the molehills. It's the reason why there have been long-term valued members of TMC who have turned permabear before TSLA went on a 20x tear.

It's the reason why startups like the Boring Company are identified as failures until all of the sudden they are obviously not failures. Then they start to shine. Even solar has that capability.

 

[torifile]

I’m tempted to take some off here. Someone talk me down! Jeez. 15% gains in 3 weeks.

Edit: correction 17%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m tempted to take some off here. Someone talk me down! Jeez. 15% gains in 3 weeks.

Do you have shares, LEAPS, or short term calls?

If you have shares or LEAPS, it's silly to be selling here. This is clearly breaking it's ATH. Whether that's before earnings or after, it's going to happen. I think it's likely it will go over 1300/1400 in the next couple of months before pullback and consolidating.

Still multiple catalysts not accounted for and many analysts haven't even bothered to update their actual earnings numbers yet. @The Accountant who's laid out his earnings estimates admits that he's being conservative on margin. Just think how conservative analysts are going to be which sets up Q4 earnings and pretty much all of 2022 earnings for massive blowouts.

 

[UncaNed]

Not necessarily a coincidence?

As TSLA grows to a bigger proportion of the total market, won't it make more sense for MM's or someone to manipulate TSLA to their liking by manipulating the whole market, especially during events like expected P/D and earnings reports like this?

Edit - @Pezpunk , please don't blame the whole forum for my perceived paranoia.

Mostly I- still but a pimply-faced youth in the ways of the market - was just asking my esteemed TMC elders if this might be a thing or not, and fishing around for thoughts about the effects of the growing, unprecedented significance of one stock to the whole market.

Another edit -(I did not mean to re-post this(!!?!), nor can I explain exactly what my big fat clumsy fingers did to make this error).

 

[Prunesquallor]

I’m tempted to take some off here. Someone talk me down! Jeez. 15% gains in 3 weeks.

Edit: correction 17%

Look at the (reputable) price targets. More goodness coming.

 

[shrspeedblade]

You are just...not a useful poster. You attack anyone that is not an absolute fanboy with blinders. Take the blinders off, Tesla service is not great and in solar it is the worst in an industry with lots of issues. The worst. In automotive it is ok but very inconsistent.

But instead of simply attacking view contrary to your own maybe you could expound on how you actually believe Tesla will deliver on a decent robotaxi experience and avoid the failures of service in the other aspects of the business that are much less high touch. I'm always interested to learn more information on how they will surge past a high point of failure. Oh and while you are at it explain to me why Tesla solar is still an arm pit of bad service? Perhaps you can explain to us all how you have led extensive service teams, delivering high touch service with some basis in excellence. I'm all ears, or eyes. Anyone can cheer Tesla, we all do. Helping understand why Tesla is powerful, what's unique and what is a problem is what makes the forum useful. I'm all aquiver waiting on a thoughtful post on how Tesla will address robotaxi experiences. I expect I will be disappointed because your posting history is one of attacks and fanboy regurgitation, neither of which are helpful to anyone investing in Tesla. However, I hold out the possibility that I may be wrong. Stun me with your solution to Teslas robotaxi service conundrum.

I'm your Huckleberry....

I've moved into a lot more private driving in Wine Country now, but as someone with over 10k+ rides and over 5 years experience in the rideshare industry: you are wrong.

Why?

Tesla by and large won't even NEED to address the challenges (which are far more minor than you make them out to be, by the way) that you're so concerned about. Because by and large Tesla can farm out much of the upkeep to owner-operaters just like Uber and Lyft have done! The only difference now is that people will be making a decent living at it and not subsidizing the whole g***d*** exploitative business model!

Add in the additional benefit that all passengers will have to agree to being recorded at all times, cleaning fines won't be too hard to police. I think Elon's comments about letting people manage fleets (big and small) shows an amazing amount of insight into a business where I'm merely wallowing around down in the mud. It sucks down there, and the fact that he would want to make the lives of little guys with this business model better is, quite frankly, extraordinary. They even avoid almost all the headaches of actually managing the fleet while STILL bringing in revenue off every ride AND providing the insurance the owner-operators will need as well. The best part is no part, the best headache is no headache.

P.S. I've had two mobile service appointments on my 180k Model 3 recently that were extraordinarily good. Happy New Year!

 

[2daMoon]

I’m tempted to take some off here. Someone talk me down! Jeez. 15% gains in 3 weeks.

Edit: correction 17%

Look at the 2 year chart.

Then, imagine the regret you will feel looking back in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years.

That ought to do the trick. (aka, Don't Bet Against Elon)

 

[Cosmacelf]

My point was not that youtube revenue can’t be high, but that (even just diagonally) reading this thread is a better time investment than watching youtubers. The information density in most youtube videos so so low it keeps surprising me that people actually watch those things.

Between last night at 9pm and todays open there were 8 pages of this thread waiting for me. The information on this thread isn’t as dense as you think it is. In between making my tea and breakfast I’m over an hour spent on it and I haven’t caught up to the end of the thread yet. I watch YouTube videos at night when my brain is fried...

 

[bballshinobi]

Hertz week had a sharp rise partly because of a Call induced gamma squeeze. I'm sure people are buying OTM calls like crazy, and will be all week, for the ER. This should cause another large pop in the SP in the next few weeks.

IV was really low at the time though. For comparison's sake, I was able to buy 10% OTM weekly calls for only $1.40-$1.50 the Friday before Hertz Day, but had to pay $4.20 for 15% OTM weekly calls last Friday. We probably won't get a gamma squeeze because now the options are priced more correctly i.e. more expensive.