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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just FYI: Don't even think of selling TSLA shares to fund your new home. If you do, it will likely be the most expensive home you've ever purchased, by many times, as you will have lost the appreciation from the massive TSLA future share growth.

There are a host of ways to borrow against your large TSLA portfolio; here's one:


Others are sure to have other suggestions along these same lines.
And if the economy goes into the toilet and takes TSLA and his job with it, he'll still have the loan.
 
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And if the economy goes into the toilet and takes TSLA and his job with it, he'll still have the loan. Cardboard box time, or maybe his sister-with-six-kid's garage.
Exactly my thinking. But I get what he is saying 1000%..... yet I've done without for a long while, and me and my girlfriend aren't getting any younger.

Also if I sell the stock in a year or 2 its not as if the position is just GIGANTIC, I can always begin adding again on the dips into Roth etc. Again, this is all contingent on the action and the rate of the action. If Q1 ER goes amazing and we miraculously we pop to $1900 im not selling a share. Its more or less if we trade sideways and opportunity arises.
 
"Delivery activity in 1Q2022 is much stronger than that of just concluded 4Q2021". :)

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I’ll continue to say it every time he is mentioned: Trip Chowdry is an absolute putz. Just because he is on “our side” doesn’t make him stop being an absolute buffoon that is known to make BS statements out of nowhere.

remember this is the same guy who says climate change is a hoax.
 
I kind of feel sorry for them. Though some of the ppl at the top management are rather delusional.
Tesla and Elon has been under attack, scutiny and extreme pressure for more a decade and a half.
They been pressed into diamonds.

Tesla got weaned off steak and pudding, and learned to make bread out of stones and execute tall ideas and impossible plans with a shoe-string and a box-cutter.
Tesla is hardcore.
The episode Razor in Battlestar Galactica comes to mind: "When you can be this for as long as you have to be, then you're a razor."
Tesla is a razor gigafactory.

Tesla paved the way for sky-high EV valuations.
This is useful - if you have a boss like Elon who is world-class at allocating funds.
If not, then not.
It is worse that useless, 'cause it enables wrong, non-frugal, non-hardworking culture and execution to have money thrown at you.

So, in short: The odds are stacked against the newcomers. They are too soft, too lazy and do not innovate with extreme urgency.

For sure, they can get lucky and survive - perhaps even thrive. But luck is a fickle mistress...
 
Well LRs having 2170 nickel and SR has CATL's LFPs so they are already doing this.

And yes we should expect few out of the gate as they ramp this tech. My prediction is Semi+Model Y performance. Eventually it'll switch over the LRs of model Ys, cybertruck and roadster. It may be stuck here for awhile because they haven't worked out the front/rear casting for Model 3s yet. I also don't see them changing their latest S/X packs unless the Plaid+ comes back.
Those are the traditional pack designs not structural packs. If they go with castings on front and back not sure how they mix which appears to be easier now with traditional packaging. Clearly they can mix cells on the legacy designs. There is a disconnect here unless they can do this easily and if not it seems crazy to open Austin and change over the lines for full cast front and back mid stream and use a bunch of robots for the front ends they wont need anymore not to mention floor space. Unless I have this wrong seems they ramp slow with all castings but who knows they do crazy stuff.
 
Those are the traditional pack designs not structural packs. If they go with castings on front and back not sure how they mix which appears to be easier now with traditional packaging. Clearly they can mix cells on the legacy designs. There is a disconnect here unless they can do this easily and if not it seems crazy to open Austin and change over the lines for full cast front and back mid stream and use a bunch of robots for the front ends they wont need anymore not to mention floor space. Unless I have this wrong seems they ramp slow with all castings but who knows they do crazy stuff.
They will have to build out brand new lines for 4680 structural Ys. There's going to be a gradual transition no matter what. They cannot supply enough Y cells if they all go to 4680s. So my hutch is that the Texas 2170 line can easily be upgraded as they have this in mind.

Edit: Also another possibility is that they only put in Performance Y lines as ramp will be slow and steady the first few months anyway
 
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cThe main reason why Pierre Ferragu is not super bullish on robotaxis is that he thinks Tesla will need to work too hard to convince customers to book a robotaxi and will instead choose to take a driven Uber. I found this surprising as there a great deal of early adopters in the world that will jump at the chance imo. Do the non super bulls here agree? Most non super bulls tend to think that FSD won't be ready in the next 5 years.
Yeah, that struck me as odd as well. For all the reasons you could be against robotaxis arguing entrenched marketplace - weird.
Still very bullish considering that despite discounting robotaxi he had no qualms about proclaiming a) Tesla will be most valuable company and b) very soon.
Weird combination of beliefs, but ... whatever.

Hm ... he could be actually be on point in that the extreme LEAN-ness and efficiency and speed of ramping up production profitably has shocked even uber-bulls like Dave and SMR and many TMC'ers as well.

And even Wall Street is (slowly, and a few quarters behind) starting to get it. Those extreme production numbers, GM and net profit numbers are available to Wall Street. For the first time in many years, Tesla speaks a language which the Street actually understands, namely money. Up goes the valuations.

Tesla really could dethrone Apple in 2-3 years. The numbers have that much potential, if the execution follows suit.

Imagine: Just when Tesla has toppled Apple, and Teslas production has done extreme ramping and production and is in the 5-10 million yearly range THEN comes the coup de grace: FSD and then robotaxi rollout on several continents. In itself: mind-blowing.
And with a huge installed base, and millions upon millions of new robotaxi-capable cars flooding out of the Gigafactories every year it will a sight to behold.
An epic tale of conquest for the ages.
 
Just FYI: Don't even think of selling TSLA shares to fund your new home. If you do, it will likely be the most expensive home you've ever purchased, by many times, as you will have lost the appreciation from the massive TSLA future share growth.

There are a host of ways to borrow against your large TSLA portfolio; here's one:


Others are sure to have other suggestions along these same lines.
Mortgage rates are still really low. Probably comparable with SBLOC interest rates. If you qualify, I’d just lock in a low fixed-rate mortgage and be done with it. I didn’t resist the urge to pay mine off early, but I should have (that was prior to TSLA opportunities).
 
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Yeah, that struck me as odd as well. For all the reasons you could be against robotaxis arguing entrenched marketplace - weird.
Still very bullish considering that despite discounting robotaxi he had no qualms about proclaiming a) Tesla will be most valuable company and b) very soon.
Weird combination of beliefs, but ... whatever.

Hm ... he could be actually be on point in that the extreme LEAN-ness and efficiency and speed of ramping up production profitably has shocked even uber-bulls like Dave and SMR and many TMC'ers as well.

And even Wall Street is (slowly, and a few quarters behind) starting to get it. Those extreme production numbers, GM and net profit numbers are available to Wall Street. For the first time in many years, Tesla speaks a language which the Street actually understands, namely money. Up goes the valuations.

Tesla really could dethrone Apple in 2-3 years. The numbers have that much potential, if the execution follows suit.

Imagine: Just when Tesla has toppled Apple, and Teslas production has done extreme ramping and production and is in the 5-10 million yearly range THEN comes the coup de grace: FSD and then robotaxi rollout on several continents. In itself: mind-blowing.
And with a huge installed base, and millions upon millions of new robotaxi-capable cars flooding out of the Gigafactories every year it will a sight to behold.
An epic tale of conquest for the ages.
And an epic tale of island-buying.
 
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The thing with a FSD driverless taxi service is that it has to work essentially flawlessly from day one to be a success. It cant just be a cool tech demo.

Sure its exciting to use a driverless taxi the first few times, but the moment it fails in some manner to complete the basic jobs-to-be-done primary mission to get the passenger from point a to point b, then that passenger will most likely never want to use it again and will choose an Uber/Lyft instead.
Almost true. But, if you can provide extra backup, in the form of remote human drivers, you can roll out before FSD is 99.9999999 percent perfect. Less will do.
How much less? That is the trillion dollar question.

If something weird occurs, the remote safety drivers can take over.
Off course, you need them well-staffed so people feel safe. That will be a huge cost. BUT - if the roll-out is well-timed, and FSD is truly ready for prime time, then the safety drivers spring into action very rarely. So you don't need a lot of them - maybe (wild guess) 1 per thousand taxi with customers.

Over time (hopefully a few years) the trust i built-up, and more and more people will gladly drive, even in inclement weather conditions. Also FSD should hopefully get incrementally better quickly, so the safety drivers can just serve more and more robotaxis.

You just need at world-wide, non-expensive and very low latency network for the safety drivers. I wonder who can provide that ... hm..
 


“2 weeks “
Ooohh! The banner photo! I have a semi on order too, but haven't paid the deposit yet.