Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

FSD (city street) would really need to be reliable, but I don't see that happening this year after seeing how FSD Beta 10.x has iterated. I'm guessing once we hit FSD Beta v11, that will probably remain in development for the remainder of this year. FSD on v12 might be when we can get our hopes up on its valuation. Robotaxi is definitely when the auto industry and the market would get some slaps in their face, but that will be ways off.

Actually what I'm talking about is feature complete and wide release.......not hands free or Robotaxi.

Due to a change in wording about 1-2 years ago, the moment FSD goes wide release/feature complete Tesla can recognize 100% or close that number of FSD revenue. I believe they can already collect 100% of FSD subscription revenue due to the change in wording. FSD wide release could still require hands on the wheel, it just has to be feature complete. It's why V11 and thus "Single Stack" is such a big upcoming release.

I do think that will happen this year and Tesla will recognize the majority of the 2.5 billion in deferred FSD revenue along with recognizing most of each new FSD purchase. Tesla themselves gave guidance about this a couple quarters ago. If it happens, it will mean monumental things for Tesla's earnings this year.

 

[JustSaying]

Whatever. This is all I have to say.
Back to work.

Some good news?
CBS News

California’s “Lithium Valley” on the rise​

MSN

 

[M|S|M MYP]

$TSLA up about 3% since about 20 min ago....intern must be manning the controls while the MM's take a mastros steak lunch...in all seriousness, market will turn when these *sugar* heads go into hibernation.

 

[Singuy]

Actually what I'm talking about is feature complete and wide release.......not hands free or Robotaxi.

Due to a change in wording about 1-2 years ago, the moment FSD goes wide release/feature complete Tesla can recognize 100% or close that number of FSD revenue. I believe they can already collect 100% of FSD subscription revenue due to the change in wording. FSD wide release could still require hands on the wheel, it just has to be feature complete. It's why V11 and thus "Single Stack" is such a big upcoming release.

I do think that will happen this year and Tesla will recognize the majority of the 2.5 billion in deferred FSD revenue along with recognizing most of each new FSD purchase. Tesla themselves gave guidance about this a couple quarters ago. If it happens, it will mean monumental things for Tesla's earnings this year.

Have tesla ever advertised "Robotaxi" or "Level 4-5" on their website? I always thought it was autosteer on city streets, or full self driving on city streets.

 

[phantasms]

Here's the humorous part to me..........Tesla is all of 2% lower than where it was just a month ago......meanwhile the Nasdaq is down 18%

It feels terrible right now but we're pretty much right back where we were a month ago......and we all know what can happen in a month with TSLA

I'll admit I took this opportunity to diversify into things I had wanted to get into but they had seemed stunningly expensive. TSLA is doing quite well and some other stuff that might be interesting is quite hammered.

I'm sure in the end I'll end up selling it all to buy more TSLA which is the final result of every single time I've attempted to diversify thus far.

...now let's smash that 900 cap.

 

[elasalle]

Enjoy the ups and downs, no sweat.

2 more days!!

 

[Tyler34]

$TSLA up about 3% since about 20 min ago....intern must be manning the controls while the MM's take a mastros steak lunch...in all seriousness, market will turn when these *sugar* heads go into hibernation.

You just had to jinx it!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nice change in direction (so far). Did the MMs run out of ammo? Or did someone on CNBC mention how TSLA was a Growth Story!

 

[Cherry Wine]

First Chart - Pointless
Second Chart - Value of Stock market to GDP is because Big Tech makes more profit/earnings per dollar than traditional companies and thus earnings to GDP has exploded. Nothing to see here
Third Chart - Use real S&P P/E charts/data. This is nonsense. Both of my links to disprove this
Fourth Chart - Again, S&P P/E is in value territory. You would need earnings to have a reversal to negative in a drastic way for this to mean anything...meaning you need Big Tech earnings to reverse. Nothing to show that's even remotely happening.
Fifth Chart - 10 year can and have been easily manipulated. There's no point in reading into them at all right now.

To your fifth point - shorting treasuries is regarded as one of the most crowded trades right now.

good. hope he stays short. the less meat puppets in the unintentional cottage industry that has become, the better. flush ‘em out baby! reckless uncle leo can sit right next to him! it’s one thing to talk trading on the forum threads or reddit etc. it’s another to announce to the masses. begging to get tuned up.

He's fear-mongering on Twitter now. Apparently an empty cafe during the height of a COVID wave is signaling a potentially imminent recession. (Not joking.)

 

[generalenthu]

Yet to catch up with the thread. I have been tracking the number of shares owned indirectly through options using a delta equivalent metric and this is at significant lows.

I have data going back to May 2020, and never have I seen this low of an ownership via options. To put a metric around it, at the 10:10 AM cut (SP = 871), the gross options Open interest deltas are ~35 million shares. This is a bit shy of 3.5%. The previous lowest reading outside of this episode was when we hit an intraday 555 on 2021/5/19 and that was at 49 million shares. This is a crazy low exposure historically speaking, and in some sense, we are at a lower low relative to the lows we saw in May last year.

Make what you want of it, but these are some extreme bearish readings and we didnt stay at these levels for too long the last time we visited them.

Edit: normalized, we see this metric in the 100+ million range, which indicates a 10% ownership via options, mostly through leaps, but also from near dated stuff.

 

[Drumheller]

good. hope he stays short. the less meat puppets in the unintentional cottage industry that has become, the better. flush ‘em out baby! reckless uncle leo can sit right next to him! it’s one thing to talk trading on the forum threads or reddit etc. it’s another to announce to the masses. begging to get tuned up.

While this thread doesn't have the audience of Twitter, I think it's safe to assume it is widely known and all of the major players have eyes here. I wouldn't post anything here that you aren't comfortable sharing with the entire world.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Let's see if this hammer shape on the daily candle holds. This is what capitulation looks like. Not calling it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Have tesla ever advertised "Robotaxi" or "Level 4-5" on their website? I always thought it was autosteer on city streets, or full self driving on city streets.

I believe the wording was something along the lines of "the car will take you to and from X on it's own ". Tesla removed that wording and essentially any wording of that nature and replaced it by what is a essentially a feature complete list of functionality but also clearly states the car will not be autonomous for a while due to safety and regulation.

I'll try and look up the exact wording a bit later.

 

[Nocturnal]

BTC is actually green.

He's fear-mongering on Twitter now. Apparently an empty cafe during the height of a COVID wave is signaling a potentially imminent recession. (Not joking.)

I took my kids to see Wicked last night. 2300 seats ranging from $150 to $4-500 a pop all sold out. Last night of the run after a few weeks and I live in a smallish Midwest city. The recliners I ordered for my basement remodel, "in stock" version is due in April, custom versions would be 6months to a year.

Recession my arse. (assuming the FED doesn't force us into it)

 

[mrmage]

Similar, although I’m in for two more tranches. One will be mid 800s because my last $100 down tranche was way back… Friday. Mindful that TSLA has seen dips lasting months, I play LEAPs.

Exchanged another tranche of shares for Mar2023 1000/1500c spreads @101. The return on the 1200/1700 looked awesome, but I already have those so I went for something conservative.

 

[Phobi]

Feels like the plan was to take the boat out and go fishing. They've succeeded in skimming the weak swimmers will little heart.

We possess ze HODL legs.

Keep on treading...


P.S. Nasdaq on the rise...

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Yet to catch up with the thread. I have been tracking the number of shares owned indirectly through options using a delta equivalent metric and this is at significant lows.

I have data going back to May 2020, and never have I seen this low of an ownership via options. To put some metric around it, when I took a cut at 10:10 this AM (SP = 871), the gross options Open interest deltas are at ~35 million shares, which is a bit shy of 3.5%. The previous lowest reading outside of this episode was when we hit an intraday 555 on 2021/5/19 and that was at 49 million shares. This is a crazy low exposure historically speaking, and in some sense, we are at a lower low relatively to the lows we say in May last year.

Make what you want of it, but these are some extreme bearish readings and we didnt stay at these levels for too long the last time we visited them.

This is very good information. Are you spreadsheeting this or is their an easy way to monitor this? I suspect a coiling of the spring

 

[Matias]

First Chart - Pointless
Second Chart - Value of Stock market to GDP is because Big Tech makes more profit/earnings per dollar than traditional companies and thus earnings to GDP has exploded. Nothing to see here
Third Chart - Use real S&P P/E charts/data. This is nonsense. Both of my links to disprove this
Fourth Chart - Again, S&P P/E is in value territory. You would need earnings to have a reversal to negative in a drastic way for this to mean anything...meaning you need Big Tech earnings to reverse. Nothing to show that's even remotely happening.
Fifth Chart - 10 year can and have been easily manipulated. There's no point in reading into them at all right now.

So you say that this time it is different? Only old geezers think, that we will always have regression to the mean, as has been since written stock history?

Disclaimer; I’m old geezer.

 

[Stretch2727]

Just did a Roth conversion on some shares Rollover IRA to Roth IRA. I am holding only TSLA in my ROTH.

Got to take avantage of this sale in someway. Save on taxes, eventually.

 

[dw4ngg]

"What's there to be happy about? Job's not finished..." --KB24