StarFoxisDown!
Well-Known Member
Actually what I'm talking about is feature complete and wide release.......not hands free or Robotaxi.FSD (city street) would really need to be reliable, but I don't see that happening this year after seeing how FSD Beta 10.x has iterated. I'm guessing once we hit FSD Beta v11, that will probably remain in development for the remainder of this year. FSD on v12 might be when we can get our hopes up on its valuation. Robotaxi is definitely when the auto industry and the market would get some slaps in their face, but that will be ways off.
Due to a change in wording about 1-2 years ago, the moment FSD goes wide release/feature complete Tesla can recognize 100% or close that number of FSD revenue. I believe they can already collect 100% of FSD subscription revenue due to the change in wording. FSD wide release could still require hands on the wheel, it just has to be feature complete. It's why V11 and thus "Single Stack" is such a big upcoming release.
I do think that will happen this year and Tesla will recognize the majority of the 2.5 billion in deferred FSD revenue along with recognizing most of each new FSD purchase. Tesla themselves gave guidance about this a couple quarters ago. If it happens, it will mean monumental things for Tesla's earnings this year.