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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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View attachment 760054

These are non-GAAP. My GAAP number is $2.31
ETrade (Morgan Stanley) says analyst consensus is $2.31. Here's a screen shot including their annual estimates through 2024...

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I like Tesla's chances if that is all they can base their crumble on....I had a lot of issues with my 2013 Model S, but still ended up buying a 2022 MYP....Growing pains...Don't they understand that as time goes on, *sugar* just gets better?
I do think customer service is a potential concern going forward, given the massive continued sales numbers. Hoping that the extra $ being spent on service centers covers that aspect. As an aside to all of us cheering for the new factories to open NOW NOW NOW- "they'll be ready when they're ready". Opening them too soon causes service and PR nightmares. As my software manager reminds me, "We can deliver late but we cannot deliver wrong."
The other main negative in the editorial that the writer pointed out was the massive fail on delivering an FSD that lives up to Elon's early and continued promises, 'very shortly now' causing disillusion and the crumbling of the stock -> company.
IMHO both arguments are fact based, and have already been mooted about here muchly. I have gathered that this forum disagrees on the magnitude and risk of those 2 items. As for me, I have placed my powder behind Mr. Musk for the next 3 years at least. I think this company succeeds based on its cars, cost, and model independently of FSD.
One thing that bugged me was that the article claimed Tesla HAD to deliver 2 million cars this year to hit their targets. That would be 100% growth, not 50% growth as stated by Tesla, so I think either the writer's or my math is way off.
 
The options premiums this week are through the roof... If Powell is dovish and Tesla reports earnings above $2.50 (I expect both and Tesla might be close to $3), we could see a massive climb to end the week. Not sure if ATHs are in the cards, but it really wouldn't surprise me. A ~10% move is being priced in right now.
That's the rough part. Can't buy any of the super high premium Friday calls. If we're <$950 at noon tomorrow I'll buy a bunch, but I'm not that lucky.
 
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If I were to make an educated guess on the sudden market turn, details of the fed meeting leaked.

Hoping not as hawkish as market is fearing.
Also hoping only 3 rate hikes and 25 BP each and not the 50 everyone is scared of.
Or the same nonsense as yesterday. Fear, shorting, etc........then afternoon covering.