Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Darren12]

In the report Q3 Adjusted EBITDA is 23.3% while Q4 is 23.1%, which at first looks like a drop in EBITDA growth, which the algos might not have liked. Some quick math on the adjusted EBITDA backing out the one time payroll tax hit from Elon’s options.

Adjusted EBITDA Q4: 4,090m
Plus Elon’s payroll tax: 340m
Normalized adjusted EBITDA Q4: 4,430m
Q4 Revenues: 17,719m
Normalized Adjusted EBITDA margin Q4: 25.0%

This shows that Adjusted EBITDA is still growing strongly, and should continue to do so throughout 2022 as they scale production.

 

[TRC84]

That Berlin front-end doesn't really look casted to me!
Thinking it's still welded steel parts, together with the confirmation that Berlin is still using 2170 non structural makes me think the car is very similar to Shanghai/Fremont.

Austin seems to be leading the way but before all kinks are worked out and the updated line is implemented in Germany you're at lease 6/12 months out.
To bad, I think there were alot of folks in europe holding out for a Berling model Y over a Shanghai built.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Green now AH...thanks to those paper handed gamblers

EDIT:
...was green for a second

 

[saniflash]

inventory 4 DOS is also sick

 

[The Accountant]

What did you predict for free cash flow?

I predicted $2B but I was on the high end compared to other estimates I saw. So $2.7B is beyond what anyone expected.
This should be more important than EPS. I hope Zach highlights this on the call.
Many analysts use discounted cash flows to come up with their valuations. If they they change their cash flows up, valuations go up.

 

[Singuy]

It still amazes me that other companies make EVs at a loss, and Tesla makes EVs with better margins than the competition can make ICE vehicles.

You sure? Because legacy keep announcing cars that will cost the consumer 30k or something as if they are making money. Hahaha, man the competition can't even go through the phase of selling expensive EVs to break even because they have to be competitive with Tesla. It's like which way should we lose money? No one buys our product or selling our products cheaply?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's interesting that the market is very quick to discount (or ignore) one time gains, but does not seem to ignore (or worse, actively punish) one time expenses.

 

[henchman24]

I'm reminded now of the battery plant subsidy demand from Germany that it would be the first 4680 cell line for vehicles... now confirmation of 2170 Berlin and structural in Austin. Yeah a new Austin made 4680 Model Y is getting announced real soon, if not tonight.

 

[Phobi]

The shock...now the awe

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Man these supply chain issues I think is really hampering energy. I see Tesla continues to choose to produce more cars vs deploying more energy products.

I really hope Elon is not going to spend ten minutes telling us how hard it is to build cars and storage when there aren’t enough chips and batteries. We know. The world knows. Please use the opportunity not to look backwards but to look into the future, to tell us about all the beautiful things Tesla’s factories will churn out in 2022 and 2023.

 

[2daMoon]

Does anyone else wonder how that meeting with POTUS is going so far?

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant

Am I reading correctly that Tesla did not recognize any of the deferred tax credits they have built up?

Correct - not recognized this quarter.

 

[Singuy]

It's interesting that the market is very quick to discount (or ignore) one time gains, but does not seem to ignore one time expenses.

Absolutely. One time anything doesn't reflect the actual profitability of the business. So you definitely want one time expenses vs one time gains.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Does anyone else wonder how that meeting with POTUS is going so far?

"WTF do we do about Tesla?"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Absolutely. One time anything doesn't reflect the actual profitability of the business. So you definitely want one time expenses vs one time gains.

Right, which is why I'm a bit confused as to why they didn't use the tax allowance in Q4

 

[Chunky Jr.]

LOL - over 40 point swing AH so far

 

[Singuy]

I really hope Elon is not going to spend ten minutes telling us how hard it is to build cars and storage when there aren’t enough chips and batteries. We know. The world knows. Please use the opportunity not to look backwards but to look into the future, to tell us about all the beautiful things Tesla’s factories will churn out in 2022 and 2023.

LoL you know that's not his style. He goes on tangents and creates confusion. Zach pretty much clarifies what Elon is trying to say every time since he became CFO. Communication wise I like Zach WAY more. But Elon sometimes spill them beans you don't get with Zach.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Berlin pics show the front doesn't have a cast piece. I bet this is tied to using 2170's in the beginning.

Or a front sub-assembly from Shanghai?
At the grand-opening they had piles of parts shipped in from China.
Otherwise they'd need a much bigger BiW-line which would be unused as soon they switch to the local front-casting

 

[thx1139]

Does anyone else wonder how that meeting with POTUS is going so far?

Huh?

 

[mickificki]

Six minutes ladies and gentlemen.
Please take your seats.

2:30 PST no?