Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[advocate8]

It sounds like they started producing Y's in Austin in 2021 for customers where as the wording for Berlin is clearly sounding like tests.

US: California and Texas
Builds of Model Ys started in late 2021 at Gigafactory Texas. After final certification of Austin-made Model Y, we plan to start deliveries to customers. Fremont factory achieved record production in 2021. We believe there is potential to extend overall capacity beyond 600,000 per year. We aim to maximize output from our Fremont factory while ramping new factories.

Europe: Berlin-Brandenburg
Equipment testing through the vehicle production process started late 2021. We are still in the process of finalizing the manufacturing permit from local authorities, which will allow us to start delivering German-made vehicles in Europe. These first vehicles will be built using 2170 cells

It doesn’t say the late 21 Austin cars were being stockpiled for customers. Could be handful of test builds. Those on the line in photos look like they could be that same handful of new blue ones that showed up a few days back in the drone flyover. That could well be all there are. Hope they ARE stockpiling tho.
And def hoping for more info on that and plan for 4680 use in Austin during live stuff shortly, but they have a lot of ground to cover.

 

[Nocturnal]

Creeping back up.

Elon told us back in November he'd be on the call-- thought this was already covered earlier?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465423422238994436

Yes that's what I mean. He should have good things to share.

 

[Singuy]

Man these supply chain issues I think is really hampering energy. I see Tesla continues to choose to produce more cars vs deploying more energy products.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I computed $2.84

So without the tax expense that twitter guy with the highest estimate nailed it and you were a bit too conservative? That's pretty much what we thought, and I believe what you were going for.

Unclear to me why we're not doing backflips here. TMC has been utterly traumatized by these hegies!

 

[bkp_duke]

@The Accountant

Am I reading correctly that Tesla did not recognize any of the deferred tax credits they have built up?

 

[traxila]

Thanks everyone for all the fine analysis.

The SP will be up tomorrow unless macros are destroyed again. The stock specific news is fantastic, after market manipulations be damned. The deck is on record that they are manufacturing below capacity due to supply issues, and yet a spectacular result.

Would love to see energy division exploding more. But it is growing.

Still is and will remain for 20 years all about the batteries.

Tesla already has more sales queued up for Q1 and none of the tax nonsense to deal with.

3.5 per share earnings for Q1 2022? Conservative right?

 

[BornToFly]

It still amazes me that other companies make EVs at a loss, and Tesla makes EVs with better margins than the competition can make ICE vehicles.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So without the tax expense that twitter guy with the highest estimate nailed it and you were a bit too conservative? That's pretty much what we thought, and I believe what you were going for.

Unclear to me why we're not doing backflips here. TMC has been utterly traumatized by these hegies!

Probably because we know the market is going to completely ignore the one-time items that hit operating margin and thus EPS........likely means we're stuck in a range until Q1 earnings when the EPS and operating margin jump.

Also, knowing that those two items were in the earnings, kinda wish they had actually used the tax allowance.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So without the tax expense that twitter guy with the highest estimate nailed it and you were a bit too conservative? That's pretty much what we thought, and I believe what you were going for.

Unclear to me why we're not doing backflips here. TMC has been utterly traumatized by these hegies!

We're all waiting for the conf call before we start to attempt to pull muscles that have not been utilized in a long time

 

[BornToFly]

Positive Points I see thus far:

- If you exclude the one-time payroll taxes for the CEO options exercised, you get to $2.84 Non-GAAP EPS
- Free Cash Flow of $2.8B - this is truly amazing
- With the Cash Flow, Tesla paid down debt by $1.5B and increased cash by $1.5B
- It looks as if all tranches of the CEO award have now been deemed "probable" - going forward in 2022, there is a small amount remaining to be expensed - about $30m

What did you predict for free cash flow?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is the call at 5:30 Eastern? I'm gonna go Lebowski a few beers in the bathtub til then. This week has nearly killed me.

Well done Tesla team! Another astonishing quarter for the Master Plan!

 

[Tyler34]

Probably because we know the market is going to completely ignore the one-time items that hit operating margin and thus EPS........likely means we're stuck in a range until Q1 earnings when the EPS and operating margin jump.

Also, knowing that those two items were in the earnings, kinda wish they had actually used the tax allowance.

And we have to listen to JPow talk again before said Q1 earnings.

 

[RobDickinson]

It still amazes me that other companies make EVs at a loss, and Tesla makes EVs with better margins than the competition can make ICE vehicles.

Scale and efficiency matter.

Also approach, many other auto makers are making EVs at a loss to avoid co2 fines etc. VW can afford to sell an ID vehicle in Europe for 8000 euro less than it costs to build and still come out even.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Probably because we know the market is going to completely ignore the one-time items that hit operating margin and thus EPS........likely means we're stuck in a range until Q1 earnings when the EPS and operating margin jump.

Also, knowing that those two items were in the earnings, kinda wish they had actually used the tax allowance.

I think a pre-trainwreck @StarFoxisDown! would be more inclined to think this will work it's way into the algos over the next two weeks and we're headed to ATH. That's logical, no?

Go team!

 

[henchman24]

If Tesla can just maintain these deliveries and margins through the year, taking out the Musk comp... we are at 11.36, which is over $2 over current estimates. The question will be margin impact on opening the new factories. Bears will assume it is going down and will push that. Maintenance of it and expanding deliveries should mean that >$12 is pretty certain and 14-15 is pretty likely. That is hugely positive.

Another huge positive is that my reading is that Austin is basically in production waiting for certification of the Y from there. I read that as 4680 Model Y getting the final testing done before they deliver (supported by the structural battery pack pic). Austin is basically ready to run and 4680s are about to hit the street.

Lastly, Tesla will pretty much be at zero debt, with very strong cash flow... Moody's just upgraded so it will be a bit, but another one in 6-9 months al but guarantees investment grade.

I'm personally not expecting a huge market reaction from these financials, especially given the macro at the moment. The conference call could clear up some of the questions (Austin in production and CT in mid 22 would bring a strong positive reaction), but absent that, stable to some recovery is all I really expect until this is digested.

 

[Speedr117]

Berlin pics show the front doesn't have a cast piece. I bet this is tied to using 2170's in the beginning.

 

[Singuy]

So Tesla made back all their losses since inception just from 2020 + 2021.

 

[H Mak]

If you exclude the one-time payroll taxes for the CEO options exercised, you get to $2.84 Non-GAAP EPS

You beat me to it but I did the same calculation and got exactly the same answer. EPS of $2.84 would be a serious concensus beat, and even beats the whisper number. I think it's perfectly acceptable to adjust for this one-off item. Happier now

 

[Singuy]

Berlin pics show the front doesn't have a cast piece. I bet this is tied to using 2170's in the beginning.

It's in the report that they are using 2170

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Flat AH....conf call gonna send us somewhere