Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Freedom of speech still exist last time I checked! Side note I listen to doctors vs Elon if I want medical advice.

Hope your osteoarthritis is doing well WW. Welcome to the degenerate investors side of the forums. I see you already have been warmly welcomed. Hope it doesn’t turn into a M8B *sugar* show.

Don’t buy/sell options.

 

[MC3OZ]

Disagree.
Elon is the CEO of Tesla. He has very recently and very clearly stated that the bot is the most important product.
It makes a lot of sense to discuss the bot in this main thread.

The problem is most of what we are posting about the bot is speculation, especially when we get into form factors, manufacturing processes, costs, uses etc.

And a lot of YouTube videos are similar speculation.

Comments from Elon or Tesla should be posted here, high quality YouTube videos could be posted here.

IMO in a specialist thread there is more room to speculate and dive deeper into the topic, also there is more ability to track what others are posting on that topic and how information changes over time.

So if you are posting on the Bot in this thread, try to make it a quality post, in the specialist thread the bar is lower.

 

[Singuy]

Appl is on a bull rally closing above all its moving averages, Dow Jones have a bull gap to fill. Signs are pointing this to more of an end of correction reversal vs a dead cat, however Vix is still above 24. We will see how how it plays out. Credit of course goes to thestockchannel.

 

[Kenypowa]

Electrify America edges out Tesla Superchargers in 2021 EV Charging Infrastructure Benchmark

Last year, global engineering firm umlaut, which performs benchmarks in various industries, adapted its testing prowess to the United States’ electric vehicle market to determine which public charging network was the best in the country. The effort, which was dubbed as the inaugural 2020 USA EV...

www.teslarati.com

I only have one EV in my life, a Tesla, so I can’t comment on this. But, something must be off about this survey?

Look at the criteria. Tesla wins at the actual charger and somehow EA wins in their "app functionality".

In fact, EA somehow wins the price transparency & payment.

This is a study designes to rig a comparison with the appearance of a fair and balanced approach.

 

[Singuy]

Look at the criteria. Tesla wins at the actual charger and somehow EA wins in their "app functionality".

This is a study designes to rig a comparison with the appearance of a fair and balanced approach.

Tesla chargers lost because you don't need to use an app. And apparently all the broken EA chargers is a feature, not a bug. Got it.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The payroll tax that we saw hit Q4 (340M) is based on value at exercise date.

True, but wouldn't that be at least partly offset by gaining a higher cost for the new shares meaning a lower tax whenever they are sold in the future. When Elon needs money for Mars?

I just don't see the total difference being large enough that Elon would really care what the stock price is when he exercise.

 

[WhiteWi]

Hope your osteoarthritis is doing well WW. Welcome in the degenerate investors side of the forums. I see you already have been warmly welcomed. Hope it doesn’t turn into a M8B *sugar* show.

Don’t sell options.

He hey hey. All good here. You know me I am in for a long run.

 

[elasalle]

FSD tracker

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488326318844489731

actual link FSDBeta Community Tracker

(not sure how user and data can be verified though ..)
+ edit:
Please upload a screenshot showing the last 6 digits of VIN and Version # from the Tesla app to prove that you are a current FSDBeta tester. VIN information will not be shared and will be used to prevent duplicate submissions or invalid access. *

 

[insaneoctane]

I know today is a day worth celebrating, however we must be careful as this may end up being a gigantic bull trap.

We need Arkk to close above 85, Tesla needs to hit above 1k and Qqq needs to hit above 375. If all of these align then we can hit ath. (Note we don't have to close these targets in one day but eventually throughout the green wave).

Reason why we should all be cautious is because everything was extremely over sold so this can be a possible dead cat bounce on a macro level before next leg lower in which Nasdaq can potentially hit pre covid levels (let's just call that the ultimate bottom).

If you overlay the .com bubble price action over arkk, it's scary how similar the patterns are, and according to that pattern this is the dead cat phase.

Hate to be a negative nancy on a very positive day but we need to see some of the above price targets hitting before thinking this is over.

Check video for the overlay.

Thank you for sharing. That video gave me pause.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Appl is on a bull rally closing above all its moving averages, Dow Jones have a bull gap to fill. Signs are pointing this to more of an end of correction reversal vs a dead cat. We will see how how it plays out. Credit of course goes to thestockchannel.

Thanks for posting TSLA nugget from thestockchannel. Crazy how some of them came into fruition one after the other. I find the info useful for the short term movement. Also, save my lazy butt some time from going through all non-Tesla in his vid.

 

[StateoftheArt]

As the narrative crumbles but the gaslighting continues they become like enraged animals trapped in their own reality (cage if you will).

In a world of what seems like so many cowards (weak men) it so refreshing to have a man of courage with the bullhorn.

The Truth always prevails. God always wins.

Thank God for Elon Musk.

 

[Krugerrand]

Appl is on a bull rally closing above all its moving averages, Dow Jones have a bull gap to fill. Signs are pointing this to more of an end of correction reversal vs a dead cat, however Vix is still above 24. We will see how how it plays out. Credit of course goes to thestockchannel.

I officially protest and would like to put forth a nomination for it to now be called a dead dog bounce. Who seconds?

 

[mongo]

Lol, of course Elon is interested in the SP. Back in May 2019 (~3 weeks after the NYC hearing with the S*C), Elon executed exactly 1 of his 9 vested 2012 Stock Option tranches. That was when the SP was about $36 (split adjusted). It only cost him about $20M to exercise those options, and he paid both the exercise cost and his Income Taxes in cash (ie: he borrowed the money against his shares). Even better, Tesla didn't face a large bill for payroll taxes like 2021Q4.

Back then, Elon paid 53% Income tax on just a few million $, and now he has a bucket of shares on which he will only pay 20% Capital Gains tax (no income tax). If he can pay the taxes at a lower price, he pockets 53-20=33% more of the appreciated value of the shares when he finally goes to sell them.

Of course he cares.

Paging @mongo

Cheers!

Sorry, but I'm disagreeing with ya.
If Elon could choose between 53% and 20%, of course 20% is better; but that's not the situation. Rather the choice is 53% tax later, or 53% now and an additional 20% on future gains.
If it was all basis now (0 gain at exercise), the only 20% senario would apply, but at a $70 exercise for 2018 options vs $1000+ stock price (14:1), basis gain is less of a factor.

Critical point: paying less dollars in taxes does not mean you net more money.

Numbers change due to inital basis, but the basic premise remains: Taxed gains on a post-tax balance yeild less returns than gains taxed once.
Or:
80% of a multiple of 47% of a number
.8*g*.47*a
is less than
47% of a multiple of a number
.47*g*a
which is a variation of:
Never sell shares to buy back lower (in a taxable account)

Example,
Given:
Minimal initial basis
Tesla triples from vesting to final cashout
Normal income tax rate: 55% (net 45%)
Capital gains rate: 20% (net 80%)
Exercise at vesting:
$1,000 in granted (sans basis) stock becomes $450 after exercise * 3x gains over time = 1,350 - (900*20%) = $1,170 net and $730 (550+180) in tax
Exercise at cash out:
$1,000 *3 = 3,000 * (45%) = $1,350 net and $2,650 in tax
Pays more taxes, but ends up with more money

 

[Discoducky]

Look at the criteria. Tesla wins at the actual charger and somehow EA wins in their "app functionality".

In fact, EA somehow wins the price transparency & payment.

This is a study designes to rig a comparison with the appearance of a fair and balanced approach.

Tesla lost points as their "app platform" is mostly included in the car vs the app. Hopefully someone, with less obvious bias, does a test with the Tesla App on other cars to see how well it stacks up.

Who is funding this supposed benchmark I wonder?

Benchmark is run by Umlat, which is owned by Accenture, who partners with...wait for it...wait...a bit more...I bet there's more, but I feel like the point is made...this took me about ~3 minutes.

It seems a bit misleading and a huge conflict of interest for an engineering company to post a benchmark while their parent company works with seemingly all legacy auto...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The answer Dave is looking for is mind-numbingly simple and obvious to Elon, but exceedingly difficult to put into words in any manner than most people would find very meaningful.

The answer of how Elon does this is visions. He sees where the world is going, what technology cost curve declines allow that which was previously uneconomic, how inefficiencies of labor, energy and materials usage could be improved, how much development is needed to get from A to B, what the market might like if they had access to it, etc. etc. etc. Then, he has to translate that into how to make it happen most quickly and efficiently. What is needed, who is available, how to present the ideas and goals and who to present them to. Then there are feedback loops from others, people who may have more day-to-day understanding of some of the specific challenges involved, there is consensus building, bring new talent on board, it goes on and on. All of this needs to be processed through no-nonsense first principles thinking of the highest order (fewest errors possible).

I think the point is, you could write a book and still not really answer Dave's questions because it's all really simple common sense once you are thinking properly. Much better to just watch the results happen and be in awe. Because, obviously, not everyone can do this. If you have to ask, it's just going to seem like magic to you anyway. It's the result of being visionary and being able to manifest those visions in the real world. Explaining it is not really possible because it's a non-stop watching and pulling strings to keep the ball moving in the right direction. If you are good at every step along the way, the result is an amazing success. Or, you might get halfway into it and realize the entire initiative was flawed from the start. This could necessitate abandoning the initiative or starting over with more correct thinking on a "less wrong" path. In the real world you are not afforded too many "do-overs" because these initiatives have to eventually pay for themselves. So another characteristic of some successful at doing this is they don't embark on a lot of dead-ends.

Dave's questions were mind-numbingly naive in the context of the answers so it just kind of blew Elon's mind (in a bad way). Plus, the very act of describing the process would appear egotistical in the extreme. People want to believe there is an easy way to make amazing things happen but it's never easy to be right such a high percentage of the time that you can actually make big, difficult things happen.

tl;dr: there is much that can be gained from this kind of conversation

I'm not sure Dave is the best person to interview Elon on this subject, I'm not sure he has the right experience, and that they'll sync. Yet, Dave is very thoughtful and original, and I appreciate him for wanting to do this; he's expressed it few times now. And I'm not sure Elon has fully conceptualized what he actually does, it's probably very internalized and instinctive for him. But I'm sure If he put some thoughts in it, he'll come up with a bunch of important insights.

As a VP of Eng. I've had few of my own insights. Here is one example: When Engineer says something is impossible, it merely means it's hard or he doesn't want to do it. If you probe long enough, you'll discover details of the problem, but you can't take first answer as a gospel. This is also why non-technical leaders often fail to lead technical organization. There is lots more about ways to motivate people trough respect, caring for them, but also challenging them etc...

About Elon, I can see from outside few of the principles he uses, though they may be least important, what do I know:
- Raise the stakes (it's hyper important)
- Motivate people trough mission(doing good for others is one of THE MOST powerful motivators, money helps, but much less powerful)
- Work and hire only the best. Empower them to run full speed and to not be afraid to make mistakes
- Keep teams surprisingly small, to reduce bandwidth and communication issues
- Remove all obstacles including underperforming members ruthlessly.
- All communication must have all degrees of freedom, no hierarchy to bind it down
- Screw planning, build a prototype and iterate, iterate, iterate... Project Managers probably don't exist in Tesla. (Company I worked for (Tucows) fired them all in 2010, and let people run wild... with excellent results)
- Mission and results matter, excuses don't (there must be some balance though)
- For mission critical functionality, automated testing must be a first order citizen
- Elon won't take no for the answer. Engineer that says something is impossible better wins that argument, and come prepared with details. (Eventually they stop doing it, and jump to productive discussions immediately. Again, this is because people hate really, really hard stuff).
- Measure, i.e. keep track of the progress. Left to their own devices most people's productivity drops
- To that effect, keep tight, errr, I mean impossible deadlines. If Engineer will need to explain why he failed, he'll do his best, to give his best... Also, unless he fails, how does Elon knows if he pushed him hard enough?
- You want life/work balance? This ain't the company to find it in.
- ask for critics of approach/product/everything, ask for relentless critics from the people you trust - he's talked about this, and how it's hard to set this, as friends don't want to offend you...
Etc, etc...

 

[vwman111]

Appl is on a bull rally closing above all its moving averages, Dow Jones have a bull gap to fill. Signs are pointing this to more of an end of correction reversal vs a dead cat, however Vix is still above 24. We will see how how it plays out. Credit of course goes to thestockchannel.

That's great news! Although i find thestockschannel to be more accurate.

 

[Singuy]

That's great news! Although i find thestockschannel to be more accurate.

You're in luck, that information was from thestockchannel..lol

 

[FireMedic]

And last time I checked that doesn't mean you should give your opinion on every topic. I really don't care what his thoughts are on the subject, he's not in that line of work.

And he posts with such assertiveness as well.

With all due respect, it sounds like the pot is calling the kettle black.

 

[Discoducky]

Thanks for posting TSLA nugget from thestockchannel. Crazy how some of them came into fruition one after the other. I find the info useful for the short term movement. Also, save my lazy butt some time from going through all non-Tesla in his vid.

I think you mean thestockschannel which I'm a fan of, but it does look like we'll escape the bull trap as the indices seem to be in our favor. I'd really like to get above the MA20 tomorrow though $1010 maybe?

 

[kbeckley]

As the narrative crumbles but the gaslighting continues they become like enraged animals trapped in their own reality (cage if you will).

In a world of what seems like so many cowards (weak men) it so refreshing to have a man of courage with the bullhorn.

The Truth always prevails. God always wins.

Thank God for Elon Musk.

Cool. Strong statement. Just would like clarification on which God you are referring to. I'm guessing Vishnu but perhaps Odin. Zeus? Mods can delete this off-topic snarky comment....but really...