2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They were made for each other. May they be trapped on an island together forever.This will age like a fine whine, won't it?
Krugerrand
Meow
That’s not judgement; that’s intuition.
One thing that I take away (as should we all) from Elon's tweet is how he constantly praises the team. Whether it's his generals and lieutenants or privates and sergeants, it's always, 'the team' and 'we, not I.' Sign of emotional maturity and strong leadership.
It's yet another data point as to why smart people want to work for him.
Elon really needs to STFU on this covid stuff on Twitter. I'm getting tired of it. He was wrong in the beginning and should stick to doing what he knows best.
There's nothing worse than tripling down when you're wrong. He might be the smartest person to get us to Mars, but he's losing a lot of respect from me.
Not that it matters coming me, but its why I've believed in his companies since 2012.
STFU Elon.
There's nothing worse than tripling down when you're wrong. He might be the smartest person to get us to Mars, but he's losing a lot of respect from me.
Not that it matters coming me, but its why I've believed in his companies since 2012.
STFU Elon.
I just wanted to share my $0.02 about the latest developments now that I've gotten time to sit through the initial emotions.
It comes back to what really matters when researching about a company that one invests: look at what they do, don't listen to what they say.
The comments that Elon gave during Q4 ER just solidified my belief that TSLA is going to be so much more in the future.
Yes, CT delay is a bummer, but TBH, it's to be expected given that it's a completely brand new "volume" model that shares little to existing models. Yes, they might share some internal components here and there, but the whole car is a different thing than S3XY. It requires time to iron things out, or as I'd put it... production hell 2.0. The only difference is that TSLA is no longer betting the company to get this done.
And if you focus on what the Tesla team is doing, I think we are getting darn close to the production model.
It seems to me that Elon is pushing for FSD and Bot as far as development goes because CT and other programs are on track. CT development would push forward much faster once the final permit for Austin is issued and they can move much more freely and with the actual production line itself. I'm less concerned about whether they have the final production design but whether they have fine-tuned the production line to be cost/production-efficient.
The notion that Elon is personally overseeing Bot suggests that it's the only project that TSLA is currently working on that requires his constant attention, while developments of other products are already either in good hands or at a stage where it no longer requires the CEO's attention.
Therefore, my conclusion is just the same I've had in the last few years, I'd sit back and enjoy the ride. Any bumps along the way are just that... bumps, but I see a clear path to success that's unlike any other company on the market.
It comes back to what really matters when researching about a company that one invests: look at what they do, don't listen to what they say.
The comments that Elon gave during Q4 ER just solidified my belief that TSLA is going to be so much more in the future.
Yes, CT delay is a bummer, but TBH, it's to be expected given that it's a completely brand new "volume" model that shares little to existing models. Yes, they might share some internal components here and there, but the whole car is a different thing than S3XY. It requires time to iron things out, or as I'd put it... production hell 2.0. The only difference is that TSLA is no longer betting the company to get this done.
And if you focus on what the Tesla team is doing, I think we are getting darn close to the production model.
It seems to me that Elon is pushing for FSD and Bot as far as development goes because CT and other programs are on track. CT development would push forward much faster once the final permit for Austin is issued and they can move much more freely and with the actual production line itself. I'm less concerned about whether they have the final production design but whether they have fine-tuned the production line to be cost/production-efficient.
The notion that Elon is personally overseeing Bot suggests that it's the only project that TSLA is currently working on that requires his constant attention, while developments of other products are already either in good hands or at a stage where it no longer requires the CEO's attention.
Therefore, my conclusion is just the same I've had in the last few years, I'd sit back and enjoy the ride. Any bumps along the way are just that... bumps, but I see a clear path to success that's unlike any other company on the market.
Freedom of speech still exist last time I checked! Side note I listen to doctors vs Elon if I want medical advice.
Andy O
Member
Sometime he even praises retail investors.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
The Bot App Store. Yes. Logical. Bound to happen.
(Perhaps "Skill Store" is a better name)
One difference comes to mind. Given how neural nets works there is also a value in elaborating on a 'loaded' practice. So, in most cases, the user might have to accept a limited 'upload' feature to ensure that the skill in question keep getting better.
Also a fundamental difference wrt. to training/dev: It will not be possible to program in the traditional sense.
The big question is: Will Tesla accept simulation as bootstrapping?
The whole reason for being is that the robot can solve and work in real life. So it doesn't make sense for Tesla to accept simulation training only. Tesla will likely accept some simulation training - and probably provide tools for that.
But - I think they would require real life training. Perhaps Tesla will require a minimum of hours of real life training in order to approve a skill.
It makes sense to offer at least 4 kinds of usage:
- Maturation training
- Refinement training
- Use and keep training
- Use only
Re. maturation training:
This will be cheap. But also flawed given that the robot has (barely) passed SIM-training and bootstrap training.
It will require that the robot uploads a lot of its real-life interaction (or a specific subset by a query API - just like Tesla's cars)
This may not be a cost, but an income: For some skills, perhaps the skill developer chooses to not realease it to the public before it has seen maturation training. It makes sense to pay for that.
Another way would be to combine a payment with a guarantee of X free hours once the skill has been developed to either refinement or use level.
(Future job titles: 'Robot Skill Dev', 'Robot Trainer' and 'Robot Skill Certification Consultant')
Maturation training will, by its nature, be intrusive, and require frequent uploads. There could perhaps be some privacy/business secret protection - but, in all likelyhood that would be unrealistic to expect.
Re. refinement training
This is medium cost. The skill should be pretty good. Perhaps minor mistakes, clumsiness, or getting stuck
Upload of new learning is required but much less than maturation training. It would probably be possible to combine the need
for uploading with privacy and corp secrecy.
Re. Use and keep training
The robot has mastered the skill over millions of combined hours. Expensive compared to refinement training.
There is still upload requirement, for edge cases and to insure Tesla overarching goals such as safety, edge case detection, communication and so forth. Uploads/sharing will be required but de facto rare.
Re. Use only
The solution for leasers/buyers with privacy issues or corporate secrecy issues - or both.
The most expensive type of usage situation.
No uploads. Memory wipe when lease time is finished.
My default assumption is that Tesla will rent or lease and not sell the robots. This will ensure highest safety of the robots, because Tesla can both run simulations and actual tests before they approva a given skill.
It also gives Tesla a very nice way to directly support 'good deeds', for example environment cleanup or social works projects.
The nice thing is that leasing/rente enables Tesla to be generous, but not naive: There is a control mechanism in that it will be easy to do follow ups or 'sample control' in the form of videoclips (which can even be reviewed not by Tesla, but by third parties if the context requires).
In order to counter abuse, legal action might not be necessary. The risk of getting temporarily (or perma-) banned from using one, many or all bot skills may be all it takes for charities and/or NGOs to use the robots for the work they are supposed to (and not something else)
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It’s the same result whatever you want to call it.
I do think it’s actually judgment based on acquired lifetime knowledge and the capacity to connect information in order to solve the problem he’s trying to solve. His brain might just be highly overclocked and always on problem solving mode.
And I am so happy it is, because he’s really changing the world and they only getting started!
LFG!!!
And last time I checked that doesn't mean you should give your opinion on every topic. I really don't care what his thoughts are on the subject, he's not in that line of work.
And he posts with such assertiveness as well.
Yes, but unlike you there are a lot of idiots who would blindly follow uninformed opinion!
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Yes, this is a great read. Replying only to reduce the chance that somebody missed or glossed over your post.
Here’s the last two paragraphs of the conclusion.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Disagree.
Elon is the CEO of Tesla. He has very recently and very clearly stated that the bot is the most important product.
It makes a lot of sense to discuss the bot in this main thread.
We need to change the sign of the d$/dt of that blue line.
Electrify America edges out Tesla Superchargers in 2021 EV Charging Infrastructure Benchmark
Last year, global engineering firm umlaut, which performs benchmarks in various industries, adapted its testing prowess to the United States’ electric vehicle market to determine which public charging network was the best in the country. The effort, which was dubbed as the inaugural 2020 USA EV...
www.teslarati.com
I only have one EV in my life, a Tesla, so I can’t comment on this. But, something must be off about this survey?
“You've been constant and fair Lora.” 50% success rate for GoJo! New record!
Bit aggressive there. You can post your opinion and I can react to it. No?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Another billion in fossil fuel subsidies. Yay!
www.cnbc.com
Biden is sending more than $1 billion to states to plug abandoned oil and gas wells
Methane gas is a main component of natural gas and accounts for 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
www.cnbc.com
Didn't teslarati also just publish fake news about the costs of rooftop solar last night? Have they been hacked or something?Electrify America edges out Tesla Superchargers in 2021 EV Charging Infrastructure Benchmark
Last year, global engineering firm umlaut, which performs benchmarks in various industries, adapted its testing prowess to the United States’ electric vehicle market to determine which public charging network was the best in the country. The effort, which was dubbed as the inaugural 2020 USA EV...
I only have one EV in my life, a Tesla, so I can’t comment on this. But, something must be off about this survey?
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