Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Moody's for one already pre-empted that possiblility just 2 days before Tesla's 2021 Q1 conference call by writing in their Jan 24, 2022 credit outlook note:

Moody's upgrades Tesla's corporate family rating to Ba1; outlook positive

"To date, Tesla's product offering remains narrowly reliant on primarily two models, however.​

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"FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS​

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"The ratings could be upgraded if Tesla successfully expands its global footprint, maintains a strong competitive global presence as other automakers offer an increasing number of battery electric models, and improves its product breadth."​

So you see, Moody's has pre-announced their excuses. They have no problem however ignoring the fact that increasing the number of models does exactly zero to the total number of cars sold, but reduces gross margin. But they predict margins to improve...

Priceless.

I do think that the "product breadth" part was simply to shield them from looking too stupid for not issuing investment grade now.

I think Tesla's execution over Q1 and Q2 will force their hand if Tesla executes as well as we're predicting here.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm just looking at the max pain chart. Still can't rationalize that MM's don't care about expiring put positions which are(were at least) sitting at $900. There's pretty much no call OI below $900 as of this morning, so why bother when you can shaft 5x as many put holders at $900 AND do a bit of covering/accumulating in the bargain?

Certainly there could be a larger plan afoot. I like to keep it simple......like Omar.

What if the MMs are the 900 strike Put holders? They want it as low as possible to screw the retail Put sellers and make a nice profit.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Tech sector macros getting hammered today. Between the high inflation numbers and Vlad playing war games, I think the markets got spooked. Not that it takes much to spook the markets lately.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Ugh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492203576260759561

 

[Artful Dodger]

I do think that the "product breadth" part was simply to shield them from looking too stupid for not issuing investment grade now.

If we take Moody's language, then simply broadening S/X production should increase the breadth of Tesla's product line. A Plaid Model S sells for over $130K and likely has a gross margin approaching 40%. Crank out 80K S/X this year, and that's +$4B in gross profit for the S/X model line alone, which is about $4/share added to EPS in 2022.

I think Tesla's execution over Q1 and Q2 will force their hand if Tesla executes as well as we're predicting here.

Moody's has demonstrated a strong ability to resist facts: they choose them carefully to match their preferred narrative.

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Ugh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492203576260759561

We need to make life multi planetary ASAP.

 

[PlaidCPA]

We need to make life multi planetary ASAP.

I am Ukrainian and have family in Ukraine. The invasion on a large scale is not in the cards according to folks in Ukraine. People are not panicking and Ukrainian army has tons of weapons from USA and NATO allies. Most of Ukraines weaponry now is even better than Russia has. Putin is doing military exercises as he always does. The markets are panicking because of media spins not because of actual facts on the ground.

 

[insaneoctane]

Perfect....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491875132658393090

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492175300356157443

 

[Joe F]

Ugh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492203576260759561

So, Putin has all his short positions in place I suppose.

Dry powder time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, Putin has all his short positions in place I suppose.

Dry powder time.

Do really think hedgies weren't planning to retest the MA(200) all this time?

I say they adopted this plan Jan 2nd, and were planning to get a plan since Hertz in Oct

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The question is, now or Monday. Can't these guys start their wars during trading hours?

I'm impatient, had to dip into margin...69 @ $865...bargain of the century.

 

[Cherry Wine]

LOL! What a clown show. Okay, I'll stop posting news updates related to this now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492214009935929348

 

[insaneoctane]

"Tesla increased the price for midnight silver and deep blue metallic for the model y by 1000€ in Germany.
Midnight silver and deep blue now cost 2200€ extra, just like red multi-coat."

Obviously more demand problems

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492042194374561795

 

[15Peter20]

"Tesla increased the price for midnight silver and deep blue metallic for the model y by 1000€ in Germany.
Midnight silver and deep blue now cost 2200€ extra, just like red multi-coat."

Obviously more demand problems

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492042194374561795

“Let’s suck all the money out of Germany until they give up and grant the permits. “

 

[wtlloyd]

Thought I already had my bath today.

 

[Mengy]

TSLA's P/E compression in just a year and a half is going to match what it took Amazon's P/E compression for years to do. That's nuts

The issue now is they've compressed the P/E into such a tight number that if Tesla keeps executing and beating the way they have been, Wall St going to have to "chase" the stock quarter after quarter, non stop. Similar to Apple's trading. Wall St over the past few years has essentially said we value Apple on a forward p/e basis of around 25-30. Apple keeps growing their earnings, QoQ/YoY, which has forced the stock into a non-stop rally. Apple stock has become super predictable because of that dynamic.

Yep, exactly. I feel this is where TSLA will be by the end of this year after trading mostly "flat" for 2022. Tesla isn't going to stop executing, financially the company is exploding like Starship flying for Mars. The PE will compress so tightly by the end of 2022 that the stock will become a predictable climber of the market within a year or so. As you said, like Apple.

Today's price might seem frustrating, but look at it like so: 2022 will likely be the LAST chance anyone has of buying TSLA shares at prices like these. Either accumulate all you can now or miss the train which is about to depart the station for orbit.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Yep, exactly. I feel this is where TSLA will be by the end of this year after trading mostly "flat" for 2022. Tesla isn't going to stop executing, financially the company is exploding like Starship flying for Mars. The PE will compress so tightly by the end of 2022 that the stock will become a predictable climber of the market within a year or so. As you said, like Apple.

Today's price might seem frustrating, but look at it like so: 2022 will likely be the LAST chance anyone has of buying TSLA shares at prices like these. Either accumulate all you can now or miss the train which is about to depart the station for orbit.

I heard last October was the last chance to get TSLA at these prices

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thought I already had my bath today.

Doncha know? Tesla is a "Penny" stock.

TSLA now -1.75x the QQQ (was 1.5x shortly after 'news' broke).

 

[Mengy]

I heard last October was the last chance to get TSLA at these prices

Last October the PE Ratio was very high. It won't be by THIS October if we trade flat all year!