Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I agree, something weird is going on. I'm on my first trip home to Australia since before the rona shut everything down and the thing that surprises me most is that all the people I am catching up with are rich. All my friends that own any sort of asset are just killing it. House prices went up 22% in a year on average but certain areas have doubled in 18 months. some friends that started small businesses (think cafe/butcher/baker) a few years ago are turning over millions a year and making fantastic profits. Even those on a relatively low salary have made decent stacks in stocks/crypto/property.

There's just too much money chasing too few goods. I don't see any other way out of this situation besides high inflation and/or interest rates to reduce, or a massive scale up of production of goods and services to satisfy all this new wealth.

Massive scale up production is the aim because having a supply problem is usually a good thing. Teslas earnings will look like crap going forward due to too high of demand...said no one ever.

Higher interest rate can reduce the speed at which manufacturing can ramp due to increase borrowing cost. I see the best time to ramp production is during a zero interest rate period. Pretty sure the fed understands what higher interest can and cannot do.

We need companies to massively ramp production, not to transfer wealth from companies to banks in the form of higher interest rates. People who buy things by borrowing will end up paying exactly the same.

Did you know that a house that cost 70k in the 1970s has a same monthly payment as a house that cost 350k today? Banks of loved it when you borrowers give them 18% interest on your mortgage.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Instead of trying to predict the next downturn, might I suggest members of this forum just do some simple preparation in case the market goes under, regardless of cause?

Take it as far as you want, from 6-12 month cash savings, all the way to doomsday prepping.

This post was prompted by the Ukraine invasion talk, which is growing tedious, and I know just barely enough to know that I know a whole lot more than most of you (minus our Ukrainians here). And I know almost nothing.

The chart of market reactions to previous conflicts just triggered me. Utter nonsense.

I’m sorry.

How much did the market go down during the Russia annexion of Crimea?

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree, something weird is going on. I'm on my first trip home to Australia since before the rona shut everything down and the thing that surprises me most is that all the people I am catching up with are rich. All my friends that own any sort of asset are just killing it. House prices went up 22% in a year on average but certain areas have doubled in 18 months. some friends that started small businesses (think cafe/butcher/baker) a few years ago are turning over millions a year and making fantastic profits. Even those on a relatively low salary have made decent stacks in stocks/crypto/property.

There's just too much money chasing too few goods. I don't see any other way out of this situation besides high inflation and/or interest rates to reduce, or a massive scale up of production of goods and services to satisfy all this new wealth.

Property prices in Australia are too high, and IMO too many people have mortgages that are too big.

But I think most will find a way to keep paying the mortgage, as long as they have a job.
Most of the high priced property is in big cities, not exposed in any significant way to the Fossil Fuels industry.

A modest rise in interest rates will get some to tighten their belts, but many also paid down the mortgage a bit during Rona, so they have a buffer.
I'm no longer living in a big city, but I'm amazed how much free cash my friends and relatives living in the big city still have..
Once you are outside the bubble, it is hard to fully understand the bubble.

Where I live, the old saying goes, "The best way to make 1 Million is, start with 2 Million".
Lots of people in big cities sell their high priced properties and move here, even here, there seems to be enough jobs for all the people who want to work.

 

[loquitur]

New, human-like behavior seen for the first time in FSD Beta v10.0 (planning, decision making, executing move to extract itself from blocked trafffic )

Whole Mars Catalog on Twitter: "FSD Beta 10.10 reverses slightly to give itself more room after getting stuck behind a stopped car. In previous versions, it would often just get stuck if this happened and require takeover. Super cool! $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/w3bhN3fXAQ" / Twitter​

Video included in link. Nicely done, Team FSD!

Cheers!

10.8.1 driver here -- just curious, why wouldn't something like this appear in the 10.10 release notes?
The notes are usually revealing about what's new (10-bit vs. 8-bit data, "VRU" detection/intent improvements,
high-radius turn optimizations) otherwise.

 

[Tyler34]

10.8.1 driver here -- just curious, why wouldn't something like this appear in the 10.10 release notes?
The notes are usually revealing about what's new (10-bit vs. 8-bit data, "VRU" detection/intent improvements,
high-radius turn optimizations) otherwise.

10.8.1 driver here, car has been able to reverse since 10.5 iirc. It's done it to me twice and both times were not ideal and terrifying. And be careful if you take over because the car will still be in reverse

 

[CorneliusXX]

Massive scale up production is the aim because having a supply problem is usually a good thing. Teslas earnings will look like crap going forward due to too high of demand...said no one ever.

Higher interest rate can reduce the speed at which manufacturing can ramp due to increase borrowing cost. I see the best time to ramp production is during a zero interest rate period. Pretty sure the fed understands what higher interest can and cannot do.

We need companies to massively ramp production, not to transfer wealth from companies to banks in the form of higher interest rates. People who buy things by borrowing will end up paying exactly the same.

Did you know that a house that cost 70k in the 1970s has a same monthly payment as a house that cost 350k today? Banks of loved it when you borrowers give them 18% interest on your mortgage.

Ideally we could scale production in time to solve this supply/demand imbalance, however money moves a lot faster than goods.

Increasing production is not the core consideration of the FED. If inflation stays high then interest rates will need to increase, and potentially substantially, to control inflation.

The Federal Reserve Act mandates that the Federal Reserve conduct monetary policy "so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."

In Australia at least, the house that cost 70k in the 70s is probably worth $1m now, not $350k.

Banks tend to make a mostly fixed margin (without FED intervention), with increased interest rates being passed through to shareholders/savers.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Property prices in Australia are too high, and IMO too many people have mortgages that are too big.

But I think most will find a way to keep paying the mortgage, as long as they have a job.
Most of the high priced property is in big cities, not exposed in any significant way to the Fossil Fuels industry.

A modest rise in interest rates will get some to tighten their belts, but many also paid down the mortgage a bit during Rona, so they have a buffer.
I'm no longer living in a big city, but I'm amazed how much free cash my friends and relatives living in the big city still have..
Once you are outside the bubble, it is hard to fully understand the bubble.

Where I live, the old saying goes, "The best way to make 1 Million is, start with 2 Million".
Lots of people in big cities sell their high priced properties and move here, even here, there seems to be enough jobs for all the people who want to work.

Those that already have a mortgage might well find a way to keep paying especially since mortgages are full recourse, however increased rates limit how much people can borrow - which will put the brakes on price increases for future sales should rates increase substantially.

I think the problem is that there are too many jobs, there's so much cash around that people are working less and paying for services they would have done themselves in the past, which is also applying inflationary pressure.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Rumour that Tesla has ordered 204k BYD blade batteries with deliveries starting in March. It's difficult to know what the ultimate volume is for Shanghai - annualised Dec 21 production is already over 800k/yr with existing suppliers and Tesla is now ordering another 200k packs from a new supplier.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492366049354084356

 

[FireMedic]

did he sell everything as well like the lime green-haired kid?

The green haired kid FOMO’d back in today.

 

[Matias]

Video included in link. Nicely done, Team FSD!

Cheers!

Another Whole Mars video

 

[kanweg]

Telling them I've done 6 cross-country trips in various Teslas also usually blows their minds.

Well, there is a thing called selection bias. You’d never hear from those that didn’t come back.

 

[Artful Dodger]

【Feb.11.2022】Model 3 10 minutes \ Giga shanghai\4K # 413 | Wu Wa

The red-roofed “coach gate” is new. Perhaps another inspection step before roadtesting?

Cheers!

 

[MaChiMiB]

【Feb.11.2022】Model 3 10 minutes \ Giga shanghai\4K # 413 | Wu Wa

The red-roofed “coach gate” is new. Perhaps another inspection step before roadtesting?

Cheers!

That's just protection from the new construction site on the right (south).
Phase 1 (Model 3) gets an extension to the west in the north and south for now, maybe in between later on too.
You can see that here from 1:32 on:

 

[mongo]

【Feb.11.2022】Model 3 10 minutes \ Giga shanghai\4K # 413 | Wu Wa

The red-roofed “coach gate” is new. Perhaps another inspection step before roadtesting?

Cheers!

That's just protection from the new construction site on the right (south).

Is the traffic light control new? May also be a buffer zone due to that.

 

[ZachF]

When they ask me about Tesla and why I drive one, and it's clear they want to get into a political spat, I have found convincing arguments are to just say "if the guy can build landing rockets, why would you think he can't build the best car on the planet?", and "even Trump loved this guy", and finally "you believe the main stream media are lying to you about Trump, but telling the truth about Tesla?". That last one usually makes them pause for a few seconds.

Another one is pointing out that oil and oil powered cars have been the largest parts of our trade deficit for decades and that we are a net exporter of EVs.

 

[Favguy]

I had an interesting exchange today with the individual that loaded groceries into my car at Walmart pickup. He began with the usual question that we've all probably received dozens of times "how do you like your car", and before I could even finish my response, he adamantly states "I could never buy an electric car, it's against my political affiliation." I proceed to explain that I love the vehicle and never considered that buying it had anything to do with politics.

We continued the exchange as I answered the regular (FUD) talking points, knowing full well that nothing I could say to this man would have any impact on his politically derived opinion. We live in an interesting and some concerning world where political factions are literally permeating through non-political areas of people's lives, and it seems like everyone feels the need to loudly and proudly pick a side and blame the opposite side for everything that they don't like in this world.

It would have been interesting (well, maybe not that much!) to establish if his political affiliation was causing him to be specifically against owning a Tesla, or an EV in general.

 

[hobbes]

Just to see all those binders is soul crushing. Can't imagine having to rush and write all that nor having to rush and read all that. And besides, why isn't it all digital anyway? Usually, if there's one copy, there's more. Quite wasteful and inefficient, what gives, Germany?

Wow seems to be so fun to just have a common target to make fun of and everyone joining in. Adding so much value to this board and sure promoting it for a diverse and international audience. /s

These pictures were from the public presentation of the the building plans as a basis for objections from residents so everybody sees what will be built. Part of a democratic process. And quite old news.

 

[jbcarioca]

I feel like @StealthP3D has hammered the concept that the stock market largely shrugs off modern conflicts into my head, but I think it's worth reiterating here with a chart.

View attachment 767842

Given that the looming Russia-Ukraine conflict has been largely telegraphed, it's possible a lot of the risk-off has already occurred, as substantiated by a 2015 research study into the dynamic. I think this analysis should be taken with the caveat that an escalation of the conflict into a regional or wider one would mean all bets are off, of course...

Some might argue that this post is OT. Factually, this basic principle might well apply to much FUD, Internal dissent and both domestic and international terrorism. Tesla, already volatile because it breaks so many paridigms, may be susceptible to more volatility precisely because of Tesla near-global success.
Despite academic interest in this topic, there really is no good historical analogue. Given the facts we know, my personal view is that HODL is the single least risky financial move to make today. It is not to suggest that such is a low risk strategy; the world is in quite serious disarray, as are most of the Tesla markets, factory locations and supply source locations.

The only prudent choice now is to be as calm as possible, and avoid any short term actions.t days
Today more than most days that is not easy to do.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Are we there yet? (asking for a friend)

 

[friit]

Wow seems to be so fun to just have a common target to make fun of and everyone joining in. Adding so much value to this board and sure promoting it for a diverse and international audience. /s

These pictures were from the public presentation of the the building plans as a basis for objections from residents so everybody sees what will be built. Part of a democratic process. And quite old news.

That wasn't meant as bad faith targeting, but rather a pointed criticism - namely it's in fact wasteful to be paperbound for such projects and it's nothing at all to do with democracy. I'd argue that the digital medium is superior in all the ways democratic principles matter in processes such as these, i.e. accessibility, readability, transparency, searchability etc.

Then there's inefficiency, being paperbound precludes rapid iterability and collaboration in large scale enterprises e.g. factory design and permitting.

You say 'old news', and that's exactly the issue. No need to get upset or feel targeted, it's not harassment or unfair to say it's past time for Germany to update its operating system to better reflect the present technological level and keep up with the world companies like Tesla are helping create.

Do these kinds of comments add value? Inasmuch as decrying any lagging aspect of the world that keeps us from moving towards a sustainable future. Germany as the European economic powerhouse should feel pressure to at least not fall further behind the leaders in digitalisation.

For references see Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays.