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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I love the way he slapped down Joke of Joe's overtly political rhetoric using real knowledge and logic to make Joe Kernan loo
Today's reminder:


The Earth has given us many, many warnings about what we are doing and why we should stop. If we eventually make our planet uninhabitable by our species, we will have only ourselves to blame.
You don't understand how variable normal weather is.
 
High gas prices are leading to a new kind of petroleum drilling boom in Pennsylvania:


There's gold in them thar fuel tanks!
This happened to a friend of mine a couple years back. Someone drilled a hole on the bottom of his 18 gallon tank which was mostly full. Most of that ended up on the ground under the truck. Cost him about $500 to fix it.

Hopefully they don’t try that on my Model Y. Drilling a hole into a battery pack would be an awkward way to die.
 
That said, it looks close enough to me to call it a virtual tie. Which makes me happy! Hats off to both Texas and Berlin crews who persevered through COVID, nasty weather and swarms of curious drones!
Seems like Texas is stockpiling sellable cars. It’s not entirely clear to me why they haven’t started deliveries. Is there an EPA approval missing?

We’ve seen at least one of them roaming the streets in Texas. Rivian or GM would have held a huge delivery party and announce they’ve started deliveries.

As you suggest, there is no clear “Winner” here save Tesla crushing it on these two factory builds.
 
Seems like Texas is stockpiling sellable cars. It’s not entirely clear to me why they haven’t started deliveries. Is there an EPA approval missing?

We’ve seen at least one of them roaming the streets in Texas. Rivian or GM would have held a huge delivery party and announce they’ve started deliveries.

As you suggest, there is no clear “Winner” here save Tesla crushing it on these two factory builds.
@The Accountant may be able to let us know if I am mistaken, but AFAIK amortization and depreciation of the Berlin factory and operational costs will start hitting margins once the new factory starts deliveries. For this reason it would be unfortunate to start deliveries at the end of the quarter as the cost would be split among a very low number of cars (few hundreds to a few thousands) and would make them look worse than they actually are. If they tart deliveries April 1st, those costs are split among all deliveries in Q2, which will still be kind of low, and thus bad, but not that bad.

I am not sure I have the details right, but I think this is the general idea. For this reason I am surprised Berlin starts deliveries today.
 
For this reason I am surprised Berlin starts deliveries today.

For this same reason, I expect Tesla to claim a portion of their deferred Tax allowances / Valuation Allowance (VA) which IIRC had ballooned to ~$8B by 2021Q4. Here's the background:

A Path to S&P Inclusion - valuation allowance - "Net Operating Loss Carryforward" $1.8 B a comment by @The Accountant

Finally, we've learned via James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) / Twitter that VA can be claimed at the rate of 80% in the first tax year, and 20% the following year.

I expect Berlin / Austin deliverings were staggered to help smooth the financials, but don't affect company operations substantially.

Cheers!
 
For this same reason, I expect Tesla to claim a portion of their deferred Tax allowances / Valuation Allowance (VA) which IIRC had ballooned to ~$8B by 2021Q4.

Yep. I think Tesla will open both factories at the end of Q1 while also claiming that deferred tax allowance in Q1 as well to offset the factory openings. Makes the most financial sense to me as it would smooth the openings financially rather nicely.
 
For this same reason, I expect Tesla to claim a portion of their deferred Tax allowances / Valuation Allowance (VA) which IIRC had ballooned to ~$8B by 2021Q4. Here's the background:

A Path to S&P Inclusion - valuation allowance - "Net Operating Loss Carryforward" $1.8 B a comment by @The Accountant

Finally, we've learned via James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) / Twitter that VA can be claimed at the rate of 80% in the first tax year, and 20% the following year.

I expect Berlin / Austin deliverings were staggered to help smooth the financials, but don't affect company operations substantially.

Cheers!
Nah, Tesla still carries a huge net loss backlog in the US. Berlin is a foreign subsidiary, not US so profit (when it exists) does not flow through until passed to that parent corp. If Tesla plans further Germany or EU construction (which they do), then they would leave gains local (off shore from US).

See Note 14 of the 10-K
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ("TCJA") subjects a U.S. shareholder to tax on global intangible low-taxed income (“GILTI”) earned by certain foreign subsidiaries. Under GAAP, we can make an accounting policy election to either treat taxes due on the GILTI inclusion as a current period expense or factor such amounts into our measurement of deferred taxes. We elected the deferred method, under which we recorded the corresponding deferred tax assets and liabilities on our consolidated balance sheets, currently subject to valuation allowance.
A provision for income taxes of $699 million, $292 million and $110 million has been recognized for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively, related primarily to our subsidiaries located outside of the U.S. Our income (loss) before provision for income taxes for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 was as follows (in millions):
As of December 31, 2021, we had $31.2 billion of federal and $21.6 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2022 for federal and state purposes. A portion of these losses were generated by SolarCity and some of the companies we acquired, and therefore are subject to change of control provisions, which limit the amount of acquired tax attributes that can be utilized in a given tax year. We do not expect the change of control limitations to significantly impact our ability to utilize these attributes.
Edit addendum:
Foriegn : likely
US : not likely in short term
As of December 31, 2021, we recorded a valuation allowance of $9.07 billion for the portion of the deferred tax asset that we do not expect to be realized. The valuation allowance on our net deferred taxes increased by $6.14 billion, $974 million, and $150 million during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. The changes in valuation allowance are primarily due to additional U.S. deferred tax assets and liabilities incurred in the respective year. We have $417 million of deferred tax assets in foreign jurisdictions, which management believes are more-likely-than-not to be fully realized given the expectation of future earnings in these jurisdictions. We did not have any material releases of valuation allowance for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019. We continue to monitor the realizability of the U.S. deferred tax assets taking into account multiple factors. In completing this assessment, we considered both objective and subjective factors. These factors included, but were not limited to, a history of losses in prior years, excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, future reversal of existing temporary differences and tax planning strategies. After evaluating all available evidence, we intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Given the improvement in our operating results and depending on the amount of stock-based compensation tax deductions available in the future, we may release the valuation allowance associated with the U.S. deferred tax assets in the next few years. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.
 
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