Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[30seconds]

I'll throw in Elon's quote about "the machine that builds the machine" being the most important factor to Tesla's growth as one of the predictions to watch. Especially this year as we will be able to see how quickly Berlin and Austin can ramp vs. Shanghi historical experience.

With the current free cash flow Tesla can announce 4 new factories this year and we are looking at ~7-8m cars per year by 2026.

Of course still need to solve the chip issue

 

[Buckminster]

Current Earnings per share (trailing twelve months):

$4.90

Subtract Q1 2021 EPS: -$0.39

Add @The Accountant GAAP estimate for Q1 2022: +$2.50

= $7.01 EPS

Multiply by 200:

= $1402

Or, after Q2 results come out in July/August, again in line with @The Accountant expectations, with your hypothetical 200 P/E:

$9.10 * 200 = $1820

At 150 P/E, it’s still $1365 at that point.

pe ratio of 100 seems about right for end of '22. 75 in '23 and 50 in '24 where it will stay for a decade (the shorts are not going anywhere soon). However I expect the accountants forecast to be blown out of the water.

Split affect on P/E ratio will be temporary. Unless Elon makes a 5:1 split an annual tradition...

The benefits to us TSLA investors (if you can afford to wait) of a P/E ratio of 50 on a company growing at 50% will be insane. Selling long term puts is just one.

 

[S3XY]

Just made the incredibly difficult decision to bank some profits, and I truly mean difficult: selling TSLA feels like betraying a close friend or relative.

But, thanks to TSLA, Tesla and TMC I was able to choose to retire early, so I handed in my notice on 4th Jan: you know, the day before the SP tumbled and a few weeks before Russia decided to really stick the knife in.

I know how lucky I am, and that the impact of Russia’s behaviour on me was a buying opportunity accompanied by some HODLer’s nerves: so many have suffered unbelievably.

So I felt I needed a cash buffer to, at least, see me through the first year of retirement, just for my blood pressure’s sake hence tonight’s sale. Being 95% TSLA (yeah, lightweight ) is great if retirement is 6 years away, but a bit more scary if it is 6 months and counting. I guess I can now sit and watch my cash pile evaporating as inflation takes its toll . At least my remaining TSLA is likely to make 6%(or whatever it is) inflation seem trivial.

Cheers to all!

Me too. Satisfied this year's RMD and my wife.

 

[Ogre]

I'll throw in Elon's quote about "the machine that builds the machine" being the most important factor to Tesla's growth as one of the predictions to watch. Especially this year as we will be able to see how quickly Berlin and Austin can ramp vs. Shanghi historical experience.

With the current free cash flow Tesla can announce 4 new factories this year and we are looking at ~7-8m cars per year by 2026.

Of course still need to solve the chip issue

The big constraint for building multiple factories at a time is manpower.

They need the engineers and management to get those factories online. They need the Gigapress team helping to install the new Gigapresses. I assume much of this will look similar from one factory to the next, but it seems like they are able to get about 1 Gigapress installed every 2-3 months?

So 4 factories, that’s 6 or 8 Gigapresses per factory. That alone will be a pretty big constraint. Hopefully IDRA is able to keep up?

Getting the capital to do this is likely to be the easiest part.

 

[Robertj]

Right now I’m about 50/50. Sounds like you are suggesting starting to converting some of the LEAPs to shares when the SP approaches the ATH.

Seems like a not-terrible idea to de-risk some shares without losing my TSLA exposure.

This is a personal decision and each investor has their own risk tolerances .

Tesla sales are about to grow dramatically ( two factories ) . EBIT will grow quicker than sales, but PE ratio will pull back

Personally I will convert most calls/ leaps to shares over the next 12 months , but timing will depend on call/leaps maturity dates and share price hitting peaks above the ATH

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Today I handed in my resignation letter to my boss. This is the most exciting and frightening day of my life. I have Papa Elon, the people at Tesla Inc., and the many people in the TSLA investment communities to thank for this day.

Here's to the next decade of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy!

 

[Ogre]

Today I handed in my resignation letter to my boss. This is the most exciting and frightening day of my life. I have Papa Elon, the people at Tesla Inc., and the many people in the TSLA investment communities to thank for this day.

Here's to the next decade of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy!

Congratulations.

That is pretty awesome.

 

[Thekiwi]

Rob had some inside info on his podcast today in regards to Tesla Shanghai restart:, restart will be on Wednesday at the earliest, but employees will get 48 hours notice (Not quite sure how fresh that info is given that Wednesday is tomorrow China time, so employees would have already received the 48 hour notice if they were restarting).

 

[CLK350]

[OT] EMTFI (Elon Musk's Tweet Frequency Indicator) is at an ATH (All Time High) - something like 12 tweets in the last couple hours Bullish?

Somewhat OT: Musk taking a 9 % stake in Twitter according to an SEC filing. TWTR up 26 % pre mkt...

So it was certainly bullish for TWTR, but it is bullish (now, post Monday's TWTR announcement and the pale 5.61% Monday TSLA bump ) because it could well be that Elon was on purpose tweeting lots of diverse cultural and "chummy" non Tesla/ SpaceX/ Tech oriented posts so that after the TWTR thing, the TWTR folks not aware of Tesla/ Elon -who have a mostly negative image painted by the mass media- will now take a closer look at Elon's Twitter posts and more likely than not be converted, at least those who are not strongly averse to Elon.

In my humble opinion it is also n added positive for TSLA as it brings more light to the SEC via Twitter - the court of public opinion vs the court of (biased) law. Less room to move for the market manipulators.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I was loling when it got to GoJo, yea 87 DOLLARS!

EM and Tesla should just go all-in and do the power move: A 1:100 split.
Then, in 3-5 years, given massive growth, and investors waking up to Teslas dominance, that clown might be right.

 

[Chocochip]

UK new car registration numbers were released today by the SMMT. A short thread here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511253953098485761

 

[lascavarian]

And, once in a while, one can sort of tell when a troll or, worse, a paid troll, makes a run at some TMC forum or other. They don't last long. Thank goodness.

I ran a BBS decades ago, I was a Sysop on Compuserve decades ago. I encountered Jack Ricard decades ago. And more still. Jack wrote up an explanation of how much money was at stake in his last year on this earth.

Trolls are robots or humans incentivized in various ways. Trolling and rumor mongering are a human factor since civilization began. It is damaging and there are increasing forces seeking to monetize and weaponize the damages.

Trolling can best be handled with moderation as of now. The greater solution is more harsh and far less addictive. TMC has done well generally lMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

it seems like they are able to get about 1 Gigapress installed every 2-3 months?

So 4 factories, that’s 6 or 8 Gigapresses per factory.

Yes, that's certainly been the pattern for Models 3/Y, but I think that's going to be reduced to 1 Gigapress per line for Model 2/Z (Compact car/SUV).

I think that Tesla is the intended customer for the new 9,000 ton Gigapress going on display soon in Italy, and that it will be capable of forming the entire underbody of the new car in a single shot (front/rear carriages + battery pack mounts). This cuts Telsa's new-line construction time by half, then labor +production time-per-unit to 1/3rd.

Overall, I expect Tesla to build annual capacity for ~3m Models 3/Ys and 6m Models 2/Z (the later at from Shanghai, Berlin, and Texas). That brings Tesla close to 10m/yr capacity by end of 2025 (including S/X / Semi / Cybertruck / Roadster).

Then add Model 1 (Robotaxi) for 10m/yr more capacity by 2028. At a 50% duty cycle with FSD, this fleet-only product will replace ~50m cars/yr and bring huge software revenue! I'm getting excited about Master Plan Pt. 3 and "scaling to extreme size":

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI. But I will also Include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company." / Twitter​

Personally, I hope Elon lays down the smak gauntlet for the rest of the Auto industry: either scale up EVs massively by the end of the decade, or we will bury you (not planning a hard-stop at 20m/yr; just keep building more and more capacity until ALL cars are EVs). You snooze, you lose. Henry!

Cheers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

UK new car registration numbers were released today by the SMMT. A short thread here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511253953098485761

While these numbers are great I don't think they really tell us much about overall demand, only that Tesla is production constrained. The wait list for anything but the base colours delivery times are July at the earliest.

 

[Chocochip]

While these numbers are great I don't think they really tell us much about overall demand, only that Tesla is production constrained. The wait list for anything but the base colours delivery times are July at the earliest.

That's true. It speaks to a drop in demand for petrol and diesel cars, however, which is extremely encouraging in terms of BEV adoption. More people looking to buy a new car are willing to wait for a BEV delivery than ever before!

 

[Skryll]

r

EM and Tesla should just go all-in and do the power move: A 1:100 split.
Then, in 3-5 years, given massive growth, and investors waking up to Teslas dominance, that clown might be right.

a split a day keeps the shorts at bay.

Let's do 1:5 annually.

Why waste all that beautiful ammo...

 

[Artful Dodger]

pe ratio of 100 seems about right for end of '22. 75 in '23 and 50 in '24 where it will stay for a decade (the shorts are not going anywhere soon). However I expect the accountants forecast to be blown out of the water.

A Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) model for valuation works best (vs. PE ratios) for companies once they have long-established history of earnings and predictable growth rates. Tesla will fit into this category by mid-decade.

All they have to do is execute.

 

[NooB_cat]

That's true. It speaks to a drop in demand for petrol and diesel cars, however, which is extremely encouraging in terms of BEV adoption. More people looking to buy a new car are willing to wait for a BEV delivery than ever before!

Update on UK car sales, BEV is on the rise Fast over here
Tesla has 1/3rd of the BEV market.

 

[Chocochip]

Update on UK car sales, BEV is on the rise Fast over here
Tesla has 1/3rd of the BEV market.

View attachment 790258

If we look at the more representative quarterly numbers, Tesla holds 24.2% of all BEV sales and -- importantly -- 3.7% of all new car sales. Up from 1.7% in Q1 2021.

 

[hobbes]

Rob had some inside info on his podcast today in regards to Tesla Shanghai restart:, restart will be on Wednesday at the earliest, but employees will get 48 hours notice (Not quite sure how fresh that info is given that Wednesday is tomorrow China time, so employees would have already received the 48 hour notice if they were restarting).

This guy claims it might take another week - take with a few grains of as he doesn´t say where info is from, although his twitter feed doesn´t looks pro Tesla:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1511019150537379848