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It won't be simple for Berlin to pick up slack with Shanghai being shut down. Berlin's drive building is still being fitted out and the 4680 factory is still being constructed. Berlin was relying on extra production of drive units and complete battery packs from Shanghai for their initial ramp. With Shanghai closed, the Berlin production ramp could slow as they draw down on their inventory supplied from Shanghai.

Austin should be in better shape but could be limited by Kato and local 4680 production. Hopefully we hear a positive update on their ramp progress at the Cyber Rodeo.

Not just all of the above- but Berlin and Austin don't make Model 3 at all right now- Shanghai makes a lot of them (including most Model 3 for outside North America).... and margins on any production they ARE able to shift will be worse than if they could've built them in Shanghai.

If this is over in a week or so then we probably just get (relatively) flat QoQ growth again, and we just push back all the THIS IS FINALLY THE QUARTER THEY WILL ALL SEE predictions back yet again. But if it goes on much longer than that it'll absolutely be pretty materially significant.
 
Can you help me understand how China GF will "catch up" with production once the lock down is over? Aren't the other companies in China that make other parts (chips) or raw materials also shutdown? It's not like GF in China is going to open and there are just parts from other suppliers pilling up on the door steps, right?

p.s. I updated my sig with the new est delivery time of my Y order (pushed back)
 
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Can you help me understand how China GF will "catch up" with production once the lock down is over? Aren't the other companies in China that make other parts (chips) or raw materials also shutdown? It's not like GF in China is going to open and there are just parts from other suppliers pilling up on the door steps, right?

p.s. I updated my sig with the new est delivery time of my Y order (pushed back)
Because the main limiting supply part for the past year and continues to be are chips. The chip makers across Asia and even China are not affected by what happening mostly in the Shanghai area. I’ve seen a couple reports now of chip makers stockpiling supply. It even states that in the report that Gary linked in his Twitter post.
 
Because the main limiting supply part for the past year and continues to be are chips. The chip makers across Asia and even China are not affected by what happening mostly in the Shanghai area. I’ve seen a couple reports now of chip makers stockpiling supply. It even states that in the report that Gary linked in his Twitter post.
Why are chipmakers stockpiling supply???
 
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I'll explicitly add cell production to your list.

And on another level, although I tend to recoil at analogies to Apple it seems apt here. Even though Apple does not have any tech moats, their user experience built from an array of things garners them the lion's share of phone profits. Tesla feels the same to me.
Your thoughts are insightful, and the analogy has quite a few insights, at least I think so. My comments are partly due to having been an AAPL shareholder since before Tesla existed, and AC Propulsion Zero didn't exist. Skipping ancient history:
-The Apple Silicon really explains how this analogy holds. It is logically comparable to Tesla vehicle OS. The advantage is being built for purpose. All the competitors buy generic.
-The next logical analogy is the eco-system, with every part of it built by the same standards, so compatibility is rarely an issue. The Tesla equivalent is the Supercharger network. Just as with Apple, you can go outside the network, but there will be incompatibility issues and some semi-redundant steps avoided when you stay within the system.

Once we leave these two the analogies begin to fray, mostly because Apple has Foxconn et al. Even so Apple is obsessive about manufacturing quality control, supply chains, logistics and product development. While Apple has Apple stores, Apple service and online plus subscriptions, they also have widespread dealer sales and service. Tesla does it all itself, and, bluntly, does so much less well than does Apple.

Shareholder treatment differs quite markedly too. Tesla absolutely ignores shareholders unless the shareholders have some personal connection with senior executives or have a million shares or so. Apple pretty much ignores all shareholders. Having been a shareholder of both for more than a decade and watched closely, this big difference is that Apple puts on better shows than does Tesla. OTOH, I am always invited to Apple events but never have been invited to a tesla one. I own enough of both to think I'd have the odd invitation, much more TSLA than AAPL, but the only communication I have from TSLA is a proxy.

Customer treatment is truthfully zero comparison. Apple fixes every issue quickly and efficiency regardless of location. I have had personal needs in Russia, South Korea, Japan, USA, France and Brazil. The products were purchased in Singapore, Hong Kong, France, Brazil and USA. It is irrelevant where one bought the Apple or where the service si needed. Tesla, since ~2018 and volume Model 3 has steadily deteriorated in customer treatment.

In sum Tesla has more technological innovation than does AAPL, but AAPL is laser-focused on customers and TSLA pretty much ignores them.
When Apple was transforming itself to become what is is now they went through a few years of bad service. Tesla is growing so quickly with so much technological advance, materials problems and logistics issues coupled with political problems that the mundane customer treatment issues are secondary concerns. So it is with Apple, even recently. When iPhone 13 was introduced it was three months before I could get one. Normally I am offered a new one the first day of public offer (there are some small perks-being given a chance to blow more money sooner than others!). IN that respect when the supply si very limited both have an opaque process for new product allocation.

So, I think the analogy is as close as they come. If that is true, Tesla will probably have gradually decreasing market share, while continuing to have industry- leading Free Cash Flow, the vast majority of industry profits, and the highest customer loyalty in the business. In the process FUD will abound.
It does seem apt in that context, doesn't it?

I don't know how grid stabilization, stationary storage, quite fit in. However, subscriptions definitely do!! so do games!! It is really easy to overlook those last two.
 
Exactly this. We are supply constrained and not production capacity constrained. With plenty of production capacity available, when shanghai is back online they can push to 100% cap and excess supply should be able to go to the other three factories to absorb until we hit max potential production for the year. That's what's important and not quarterly fluctuations due to macro factors.
It depends on what the limiting part is. I'm sure that a lot of the Shanghai suppliers are also shut down. Hopefully they too can increase production instantly when everything reopens....
 
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It depends on what the limiting part is. I'm sure that a lot of the Shanghai suppliers are also shut down. Hopefully they too can increase production instantly when everything reopens....
And it's now 2Q. If the total parts deliveries end up nearly unaffected after this shakes out, they should be able to ramp production to smooth this out. Shouldn't impact total figures much for either quarter.