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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I want to be perfectly clear about this, because while I don't really place any long term significance on the ongoing Corvid lockdown in Shanghai, it's something that people should still understand about China.

Chinese culture does not place any real significance on the individual which is completely the opposite of how most Western cultures work. The Chinese government doesn't even really know any individual Chinese people exist and it's not clear they could even figure out if they wanted to since there are currently 1.4 billion Chinese people in China.

The individual lives of the 26 million people in Shanghai have literally zero significance to the Chinese government or to Xi Jinping. They could all evaporate tomorrow and no one in the government or Xi would care. People in the West think oh no the government can't starve 26 million people forever they will have to stop. No, they will not stop. They do not care about the lives of anyone in Shanghai. The lockdown will not end until the government is satisfied that the outbreak is contained.

Corvid Zero is only possible in China because the lives of Chinese citizens literally do not matter to the government and never will. So be prepared, the shutdown of Giga Shanghai will remain indefinite until the Chinese government is ready to end it. If all 26 million people in Shanghai starve to death then that's fine with them, at least there are no more hosts left for the virus to infect!
You should make your posts before you start the night's heavy drinking.
 
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I am not sure if it is a good thing or not, but my local TV station (KOMO 4) just mentioned FSD to be released to the public by Tesla.
I just didn’t expect our local station to even notice something like this. Is Tesla something to be paid attention to by everyone now?
I think this in reference to the end of year thing Elon said.
 
Why anyone would compare F and GM to TSLA based on a single day's share price action is beyond me. Let F and GM have their fun in the sun today. We all here on TMC know what tomorrow brings.

View attachment 791558

After coming out of bankruptcy, GM has gone from $33.80 (Nov 2010) to $39.35 today for an overall return of 16% over more than 12 years. GM will never regain their ATH share price of $63.37 reached May 2022 which is a 61% premium over pricing today.

F has gone from an ATH $35.72 (Dec 1998) to $15.02 today for an overall return of -58% over more than 24 years. Annual inflation more than wipes out any dividend gains. F will never regain thier ATH which is a 138% premium over pricing today. F won't ever even reach their recent high of $25.19 of Jan 2022.

TSLA needs no explanation.
GM did pay dividends, so the shareholders have not done too bad. Obviously TSLA is in a different category. ford has still lost money even with dividends.
 
Great article about the challenges facing the ICE car manufacturers:
There isn’t much new here, but I like how he put the pieces together, and I like that it is published in an industry ezine. I can use it to send to others to help educate them. I do this not just with family and friends but also colleagues. It is interesting how the circle of Tesla and its owners and investors is expanding. I work in IT Services and there are some interesting overlaps into areas that Tesla is engaged in. I am going to send this article to some colleagues to try and get them to shift their paradigm on time to market. Wouldn’t surprise me if a side effect of that is them either becoming an owner, investor or both. It’s already happened in at least one case.

Footnote: Tesla’s innovation cycle has made me much more impatient in my own company with internal time to market. The advantage of being close to retirement is what I like to call ”having more degrees of freedom.” I am inclined to call out folks for dithering, and to challenge slogans (“#1 goal is revenue…tell us what you need...”) with pointing to Tesla as an example and saying “we need to make this happen, let’s figure out how to do it this year…if Tesla can do it, why can’t we?” Thank you Elon:)
 
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I'm not sure how you could have missed them:

View attachment 791149

Sandy Munro's hot take is that 4680 cells are cooled both by the side tubes and from the bottom plate:

"Okay so the cooling channels here are similar to what we saw in the 2170s, they're still along the side. What I'm impressed with is I see a cooling channel, cooling channel, a cooling channel, so this one and that one is cooled from this, this one is cooled from this, that one is cooled from here, and back and forth.​
"So these must not get as hot or they may be wicking from the bottom as well. And I can't really see for sure, but if I look over there, it looks like its cooling. I think it is, I think yeah, so they're cooling from the bottom and the sides."​


Bonus Sandy: On megacastings "How is anyone going to catch up, or get better? I'm waiting for suggestions".

Cheers!
 
There isn’t much new here, but I like how he put the pieces together, and I like that it is published in an industry ezine. I can use it to send to others to help educate them. I do this not just with family and friends but also colleagues. It is interesting how the circle of Tesla and its owners and investors is expanding. I work in IT Services and there are some interesting overlaps into areas that Tesla is engaged in. I am going to send this article to some colleagues to try and get them to shift their paradigm on time to market. Wouldn’t surprise me if a side effect of that is them either becoming an owner, investor or both. It’s already happened in at least one case.

Footnote: Tesla’s innovation cycle has made me much more impatient in my own company with internal time to market. The advantage of being close to retirement is what I like to call ”having more degrees of freedom.” I am inclined to call out folks for dithering, and to challenge slogans (“#1 goal is revenue…tell us what you need...”) with pointing to Tesla as an example and saying “we need to make this happen, let’s figure out how to do it this year…if Tesla can do it, why can’t we?” Thank you Elon:)
He focuses too much on OTA I think. Very important to understand the Tesla changes and improves their assembly line—hardware and manufacturing—on a monthly basis or whenever it makes sense. This is faster than not just car companies, but actual electronics makers. The products Apple will ship in September already exist and are quietly making their ways into the hands of their suppliers to start setting up production. The cars Tesla will ship in June might be different from the ones shipping today.

This is a pretty massive difference from even the 9 months they say Toyota has.
 
"So these must not get as hot or they may be wicking from the bottom as well. And I can't really see for sure, but if I look over there, it looks like its cooling. I think it is, I think yeah, so they're cooling from the bottom and the sides."
The guy with him says "No no no not from the bottom and the sides, they have double flow in there", referencing the two cooling ports on the side ribbons. A bit later Sandy references how this allows connections on only one side with both inlet and outlet ports on the same side. Nothing in that closeup shows any bottom cooling manifold.
 
The guy with him says "No no no not from the bottom and the sides, they have double flow in there", referencing the two cooling ports on the side ribbons. A bit later Sandy references how this allows connections on only one side with both inlet and outlet ports on the same side. Nothing in that closeup shows any bottom cooling manifold.
Well it must be cooled from the bottom too… otherwise Sandy was Wrong not possible 😜
 
Chances are the Semi and Roadster may not be built in that building, but AFAIK there has been no explicit statement about that.

Elon has mentioned that Roadster will most likely be built in Fremont. This makes the most sense since it will have the same drivetrain as the Plaid S/X models, production of which is definately staying in Fremont.

Further, as soon as Kato Rd has ramped to 10GWh/yr 4680 production, and Giga Texas nolonger required cell support, I expect all 3 high-end models (S/X/Roadster)) to be produced at Fremont. This will be obvious time to switch to 4680 cells for the Plaid drivetrain, as there will be enough cell supply for about 100k Plaid per year.

When Panasonic can nolonger compete economically to deliver 2170s, that's the time I expect Fremont to switch from 2170s to 4680s, but that's quite some time from now since all their tooling is fully amortized by now. Also, Tesla has the CATL packs w. LFP chemistry to blend Fremont gross margins. That may also help extend the life of this large capital investment in Fremont/Sparks, NV.

Cheers!
 
German CAM Institute ranks Tesla with 175 Points as 🏆 Top Innovator in the last decade

Source : https://www-automobil--produktion-d...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

3uxg44ggycs81.jpg
 
Safety related to cooling seems to be the last concern with the 4680. Elon likely wants several million miles on these before the wider public has access.

They've been road testing 4680 cells since at least the Plaid+ prototype set the lap record at Leguna Seca back in, what, Septerber 2020? That's beyond all the accelerated age-testing done on the chemistry by Dr. Jeff Dawn's group.

No, this is all about the 4680 production ramp. Elon told us months ago "end of 2022, start of 2023" to be at full scale for 4680s.

Now, I think that includes Berlin. :D
 
GM did pay dividends, so the shareholders have not done too bad. Obviously TSLA is in a different category. ford has still lost money even with dividends.
@Beltsbear , investing in GM anytime prior to its bankruptcy would have resulted in a principle loss of 100% to Retail shareholders. "Not done too bad"? My friend, it doesn't get any worse.

"And that's been the case for investors of the old General Motors, which filed for Chapter 11 reorganization on June 8, 2009. Common stock holders in the old General Motors were essentially wiped out, watching their shares morph into shares of Motors Liquidation."
 
NHTSA opening an investigation in LG for battery defects.


I guess now that the NHTSA is done with forcing Tesla to recall the feature which makes coconut & ice cream truck sounds while moving slowly they can focus on less important issues like car fires?

Sometimes it’s hard to see how this can be anything other than blatant favoritism.
 
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

"In the short run, the market is a milking machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

"In the short run, the market is a milking machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing waiting machine."
 
raw material price inflation and supply questions.

Indeed. Luckily, we have a rock-star* CEO who's always 2 strides ahead: :D

Tesla May Start Mining Lithium as Musk Cites Battery Metal Cost | Bloomberg


As always, Tesla holds at a massive technological advantage vs. its competitors: it will always require less lithium per unit of range for comparible vehicles. Just look at the Audi SUV and how much more battery it needs for a similar range to Model Y.

Then, there's Cybertruck vs. EV Hummer... is there a "Lithium Guzzler Tax" yet? There's probably enough lithium used per EV-Hummer than will be used in 10 Tesla dedicated Robotaxis, which will see 1,000x the passenger miles per year per unit of lithium. Ban the EV-HUbris!

Cheers!

*rock-star -- lithium extraction using rock salt. Patent pending. ;)

Tesla files new patent on lithium extraction method | mining-technology.com
 
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I thought Elon previously said Tesla will build a lithium refinery at Austin.

Lithium-hydroxide cathode plant - called "Project Bobcat". New building construction at Giga Texas delayed in Fall '21 due to delay in lithium supply from N. Carolina. Building construction now begun in far NE zone of Giga Texas property with grade leveling over the past 2 weeks, and now geo-pier installation (pile-driving) about to commence. This is likely a ~1yr build

This article was published 11 mths ago on May 11, 2021:


Watch Joe Tegtmeyer - Giga Texas vids for:
  1. summary updates:
    1. he follows Austin city permits,
    2. has contacts in construction, and
  2. to follow whole-site construction progress via drone flights 3x/week.
Cheers!
 
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