Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Marc_K_inNJ]

The factories that supply Giga Shanghai would need to do this too… can’t build a car with no parts.

Parts? I thought someone said “the best part is, No Part”…

 

[UncaNed]

Are you sure?

Isn't the distance between the top and bottom sheets the main factor for load-bearing? (Assuming the sheets themselves stay below their tensil/compression
limits) The cells only hold them at a constant distance to prevent buckling...

Nope. Just an intuitive guess, like a wide coffee can's greater stability than a tall skinny energy drink can. If torque modulus vector analysis is needed, then I haven't a clue.

 

[ZachF]

Tesla's vertically integrated, they actually build the cars.

My sweet summer child…

 

[ZeApelido]

Beta losers always try to rationalize that Elon isn't really that smart so they can feel better about themselves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513563828486737922

 

[ninpb]

Parts? I thought someone said “the best part is, No Part”…

 

[elasalle]

NIO .. the Canary for the Shanghai Covid is green was down more than 8% on open.

 

[Sofie]

Not clear whether Giga Shanghai's area is part of the first areas being un locked

Shanghai eases lockdown in some areas despite record COVID infections

China's financial centre of Shanghai started easing its lockdown in some areas on Monday despite reporting a record of more than 25,000 new COVID-19 infections, as authorities sought to get the city moving again after more than two weeks.

www.reuters.com

Is there any way to have “offical” evidence of what is going on/planned to occur at our factory? It seems like everything I read is just assumption based.

 

[ZachF]

Is there any way to have “offical” evidence of what is going on/planned to occur at our factory? It seems like everything I read is just assumption based.

Giga Shanghai shut production down ~2 weeks ago.

 

[Sofie]

Giga Shanghai shut production down ~2 weeks ago.

Yes we know. But anything else other than that?

 

[pitabun]

Yes we know. But anything else other than that?

Solving the Money Problem dives into the current situation a little bit.

 

[CHGolferJim]

We were what....60% vaccinated in January? I think China can adequately keep their death toll down due to the advantages of hindsight on the US spike and the ease of taking action under totalitarian rule.

They're likely just vaccinating like crazy right now. Chinese, Russian, Pfizer, Moderna everything. No forms, no warnings about symptoms, just stabbing.

Even if they screw it up completely, what's to keep Tesla from housing an entirely Pfizer-vaccinated workforce onsite? And their suppliers from doing the same? I just think there are some pretty obvious reasons to not get hysterical on production impact.

I know for a fact that Pfizer has a significant presence in China, having been one of the first multinational pharmas to build a large plant (in coastal Dalian). Whether they can produce vaccine there, or have distribution approval in China, I don’t know. Clearly the Govt could expedite approval for importation anytime it wants to, even if on the QT.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Don't understand why people are so obsessed with Shanghai numbers... we have finally 2 gigafactories live, after years of waiting! What's few weeks of lockdown? I hope this solves soon for the people affected, Tesla Shanghai numbers are irrelevant in the short term (unless you're high on opioid/options...)

Had lunch with a relative this Sunday, brilliant guy in his thirties.
He's an engineer working for a Tesla supplier: they design/implement assembly lines for the body of the car.
He's been working for months in Berlin at the Gigafactory: he's equally in awe and frustrated for what Tesla does, they work like crazy - and make suppliers work like crazy too (with a little caveat - he didn't even know that Tesla workers get Tesla stocks...).
He told me Tesla had several engineer issues, like the structural pack assembly isn't ready yet in Berlin.
They, as a supplier, are already planning for the second phase, which is volume manufacturing in September/October: they will aim at 10k per week.

 

[lafrisbee]

It's a wonder there's no heat sink or coolant channel or something right down the middle of each cell; that would halve the distance heat has to travel. They could double the cell diameter.

as opposed to??? just making the cells half the diameter? The engineering challenges would be huge to prevent leaks, maintain the integrity of the battery, and design a manufacturing process to produce some convoluted structure that can withstand heating and cooling.
and figuring out electrical pathways within the cells.

 

[jbcarioca]

Isn't stationary expected to move mostly/entirely to LFP which isn't in that form factor at all- since it's cheaper and requires less scarce resources and the downsides (mainly weight) aren't an issue with stationary like they are in vehicles?

Yes, so it has been said. With materials cost changes and technological advances it is also plausible that the cylindrical form factor might be cheaper to manufacture also, so even regardless of chemistry packaging, temperature management and so on might be changing the equations. Form factor can be independent from packaging. I am not stating that this will be a choice, just that it could be. There si little doubt that the 46xx production process is very compact and highly automated. Is that process inherently less expensive than are other processes? We don't know. We do know the BYD blade batteries were very cost effective before the recent commodity price inflation. Now we have questions more than answers.

 

[Accident]

The factories that supply Giga Shanghai would need to do this too… can’t build a car with no parts.

Not only that, but there are additional problems for suppliers outside of Shanghai. Truck drivers need to quarantine after leaving the city for 14 days, which has now created logistic issues and a shortage of delivery drivers.

 

[petit_bateau]

Easy, get a management job at a TV station. I did. 2 years and out. The craziest work experience of my career. It is unhealthy IMO on many levels.

like, how many divorces can one have in 2-years ?

 

[UncaNed]

as opposed to??? just making the cells half the diameter? The engineering challenges would be huge to prevent leaks, maintain the integrity of the battery, and design a manufacturing process to produce some convoluted structure that can withstand heating and cooling.
and figuring out electrical pathways within the cells.

Well, maybe it wasn't such a great idea...

Good thing I didn't mention my other one, since battery packs are so heavy... by pointing out the obvious boost in energy density by simply using disk-shaped battery packs so they could be spun at high speeds to store gyroscopic energy...

 

[petit_bateau]

Q2 volumes for Berlin not that high and yes LG had months of notice- Berlin delayed for a long time. Cheers!!

They aren't shipping these packs by rail.

They are too heavy to fly cost-effectively. Even ignoring the haz freight issue.

So they are going in ships. Or more accurately, most of them that are/were intended for use in Berlin during Q2 have already departed from Shanghai in ships even if they have not yet arrived.

i.e. pre Shanghai lockdown.

(steaming time Shanghai-Rotterdam is typically 30d+)

 

[jbcarioca]

It's not just Shanghai. Other major cities such as Shenzheng, Guangzhou is on the verge of another lockdown. You are getting downvoted for pointing out the truth (Chinese vaccine is ineffective, massive propaganda against mRNA vaccines, backward healthcare system). The whole country is getting hysterical and shutdown itself when everyone else has returned to normal life despite of COVID.

Unless China made major policy change (by approving Pfizer vaccine, and massive inoculate their own population, which would mean admission their own vaccine is ineffective), China will face the same problem multi times a year. A country with rotating quarantine across major population centers, a constant supply chain disruption, and lack of economic growth.

They allegedly have two mRNA vaccines in production now, whether they're efficacious, will be widely avlabl now, no announcements thus far.Nothing positive or negative would be surprising right now. Just uncertainty.

 

[petit_bateau]

4680 design seems to me heavily influenced by the desire to only cool on the ends. This in my estimation was(is) most of the end delay in ramping production. They couldn't find a way to safely cool the packs withought cooling the middle of the cells.

If that's the case, and the end-cooling dream is now somewhat out the window, stands reason there's room to stretch the cell length for truck/robotaxi/semi pack design.

In addition to assuming they could solve end-cooling, I'm sure they also thought CT pack design would be 100% locked in by 2Q22. That delay also gives them time to pivot on design if they feel it's considerably more optimal for the long haul.

If end cooling has (so far) proven not to be possible, then I'm cool with them pivoting to side-cooling. No ego-driven design decisions is fine with me.

One side only. Better packing that way.

But no end-cooling also means that there is extra space above/below the cells. So the cell can be taller whilst pack height stays constant.

And side-cooling means the cell temperature distribution will be very different than end cooling.

So the original design choice of the 4680 being the overall balanced optimal form-factor is a reasonable thing to re-examine.

But from a production (mfg machinery) perspective the diameter is a stickier design choice than height.

(OK, that does slightly depend on where they ultimately got to on the calendering issue).

But other variants of height could indeed come into view in time.

And one day they might get base-cooling running.

PS. That other crinkly strip might not just be a spacer or an intumescent barrier or a sticky rib. It might (also) have a heat-conductive role to enable even spreading of heat on the hot-side, ameliorating hot spot development. Just a thought.)