Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

On the topic of keeping eyes off the ticker, did anyone else spot this Tweet from yesterday?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513216523216818180

This depicts a cell that's 46 mm in diameter and 120 mm high, or a 46120. All of the research we saw on battery day talked about the optimal battery diameter, but as far as I know, Tesla didn't specify any limits on cell heights. Maybe a taller cell for Semi or Cybertruck, that would otherwise require stacking cells?

50% more capacity for only the cost of a slightly longer tube and contents; or else, use ~1/3 fewer 120 mm tall cells for the same battery capacity - a significant cost reduction and saves a little weight (fewer cell end caps and such). However, the contribution to pack rigidity will be somewhat less with these taller, relatively narrower cells.

Another win-win from Tesla.

 

[scaesare]

It's a 15 hour day of driving; 800 miles. I've also done it several times.

Right, making the claim of "multiple times in a single day" seem off.

 

[AudubonB]

"Any number of times, I have driven SF-SEA in a single day".
Clear now?

 

[jbcarioca]

At all events, the important part of my post was: How would Beijing take such an action?

Yes, I agree. We all probably would agree that question is most likely 'not well'.
One thing I am sure of: I really do not know how the China official response might be to any given act.
Every time I think I know something happens to surprise me.
They could ask permission.

 

[BornToFly]

This time we're talking Omicron variant instead of the original COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2). This new variant (Omicron) was first detected in specimens collected on November 11, 2021 in Botswana and on November 14, 2021 in South Africa. It has shown a faster rate of spread but also lower chances of severe illness/hospitalization/death, especially if one is properly vaccinated.

I don't want to turn this into a Covid thread, but remember that the Chinese are poorly vaccinated. While Omicron is generally "milder" than Delta, because of the higher rate of transmission we had higher monthly Covid deaths in the US in January and February with Omicron than in any of the previous 10 months. Omicron spreading through China will have devastating consequences. China really screwed up by not vaccinating their population aggressively with mRNA vaccines over the last year when they had the chance. I don't know where they go from here.

 

[jbcarioca]

50% more capacity for only the cost of a slightly longer tube and contents; or else, use ~1/3 fewer 120 mm tall cells for the same battery capacity - a significant cost reduction and saves a little weight (fewer cell end caps and such). However, the contribution to pack rigidity will be somewhat less with these taller, relatively narrower cells.

Another win-win from Tesla.

As someone said a few posts back, Semi, maybe Cybertruck, could use them well and might not need the structural pack rigidity so much. Then, stationary storage products would end out saving space and connections. As Alex V. says, 'the most underestimated thing about Tesla is how much people underestimate them'. This is probably one such thing.

 

[wtlloyd]

"Any number of times, I have driven SF-SEA in a single day".
Clear now?

In a like vein, I live with someone who cannot grasp sarcasm. If I say "Oh ya, and the cow jumped over the moon!" she will reply "Oh, what cow can do that?!"
Seven years on and not a bit wiser to my ways, but she has brought me to being more sincere, a good thing.

 

[mejojo]

In a like vein, I live with someone who cannot grasp sarcasm. If I say "Oh ya, and the cow jumped over the moon!" she will reply "Oh, what cow can do that?!"
Seven years on and not a bit wiser to my ways, but she has brought me to being more sincere, a good thing.

Grizzly Adams DID have a beard!!!!

 

[mongo]

Also, they're tabless. Tabless allows for spending a lot more time at 250kW. (or higher)

4680 Teslas are going to spend a lot less time at Superchargers

Tapering based on cell voltage would be mostly unchanged by going to tabless. Tapering based on self heating would be improved.

If they're being forced to cool cells from the sides anyway, might as well make em taller!

Not so, the primary heat path is electrode to ends then down the sides, not radially. So taller gives middle of electrode a longer path (hotter). Also, more side contact area has diminishing return as temperature delta decreases and total path thermal resistance increase.
Plus, taller means more internal resistance.
However, the new tabless is so much better it may not matter and could be 80mm was chosen to only to be compatible with existing 70mm packs.

50% more capacity for only the cost of a slightly longer tube and contents; or else, use ~1/3 fewer 120 mm tall cells for the same battery capacity - a significant cost reduction and saves a little weight (fewer cell end caps and such). However, the contribution to pack rigidity will be somewhat less with these taller, relatively narrower cells.

Another win-win from Tesla.

Beam strength is proportional to the square of thickness. Stiffness is cube of depth. Fineness of a theoretical 46120 likely not an issue, especially after being surrounded by structural goo. As examples, I-beams and honeycomb panels (like hollow core doors).

 

[Knightshade]

As someone said a few posts back, Semi, maybe Cybertruck, could use them well and might not need the structural pack rigidity so much. Then, stationary storage products would end out saving space and connections. As Alex V. says, 'the most underestimated thing about Tesla is how much people underestimate them'. This is probably one such thing.

Isn't stationary expected to move mostly/entirely to LFP which isn't in that form factor at all- since it's cheaper and requires less scarce resources and the downsides (mainly weight) aren't an issue with stationary like they are in vehicles?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I don't think that "up to 200 miles in 15 min" is for the 250KW SuC V2 rate; I think* that's for 350KW:

(63.4 KWh / 0.25 Hr) * (279mi / 200mi) = 354 KW​

*This is based on my previous estimate that Austin Std Y has an ~63.4 KWh pack

Your math is off. It should be
63.4 kWh*(200mi/279mi)/.25 hr = 182 KW average charge rate.

That’s still a very impressive charging curve. That would be insane to match the Model S charge rate from 0-72% charge with a much smaller battery. I suspect the 200 miles in 15 minutes is actually for the Austin LR Model Y, not the SR. Because right next to the “200 miles in 15 minutes” it said “up to 330 miles range”

 

[H Mak]

Going for a run and put in a buy order @ $970. Well, you never know.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Losing early Q production reduces deliveries outside of China- there's only so many ships and only so much time to move them.

AFAIK margins are better on cars delivered outside of China are higher.

So there'd be an impact even if they could make up 100% of production (which gets increasingly unlikely the longer this goes)

Plus this slows Berlin too since Shanghai is currently supplying them at least batteries (motors too I thought?)

Or take the loss on the nose and kill the delivery wave with End-of-quarter exports..?

Elon already stated his desire to do so. And stable production number with lots of in-transit due to Shanghai could save the day.

 

[jerry33]

How is that possible? Assuming a (ridiculous) average speed of 86MPH, that's 20 hours to get back to Seattle. How could you then make the "drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area " again within a single day?

Don't know about that particular drive, but I have driven (several times) from DFW to Lincoln, NE, spent four hours visiting, and then driven back to DFW. (It does take longer than 24 hours though when you include the visiting time).

 

[ZachF]

At this point I would write off at least half of Shanghai’s Q2 production, unfortunately.

And if China keeps following this boneheaded zero COVID strategy they’re going to have to do it every year, because COVID is here to stay. Omicron Ro is just too high.

It also doesn’t help that their vaccine stinks and they had a big propaganda push against the better western vaccines either.

Ultimately though, if you look at Hong Kong’s recent experience and extrapolate that to China, which has ~200 times the population, it’s pretty sobering… a million Chinese may die in just the next couple months, let’s pray that’s not the case though. China is kinda in a no win scenario.

 

[lafrisbee]

On the taller cells....
First, a taller cell means electrons in the middle have to travel father to exit the cell so the ratio of superior cooling done at the ends will be less. So the cooling done at the ends will have less impact on the middle. And there will be an increase of heat at the ends due to MORE electrons passing through that mass. More considerations and engineering would need to be done than just make it longer and save manufacturing costs.

Second, increasing the length of the cells will raise the floorboards and thus reduce critical headroom. here again, re-engineering the body.

I can see longer cells being a better fit for the semi.

 

[GOVA]

At this point I would write off at least half of Shanghai’s Q2 production, unfortunately.

And if China keeps following this boneheaded zero COVID strategy they’re going to have to do it every year, because COVID is here to stay. Omicron Ro is just too high.

It also doesn’t help that their vaccine stinks and they had a big propaganda push against the better western vaccines either.

Ultimately though, if you look at Hong Kong’s recent experience and extrapolate that to China, which has ~200 times the population, it’s pretty sobering… a million Chinese may die in just the next couple months, let’s pray that’s not the case though. China is kinda in a no win scenario.

Gloomy much?

I actually have some hope.

Lockdown to be lifted on more than 7,000 Shanghai communities and sites

 

[Kenypowa]

At this point I would write off at least half of Shanghai’s Q2 production, unfortunately.

And if China keeps following this boneheaded zero COVID strategy they’re going to have to do it every year, because COVID is here to stay. Omicron Ro is just too high.

It also doesn’t help that their vaccine stinks and they had a big propaganda push against the better western vaccines either.

Ultimately though, if you look at Hong Kong’s recent experience and extrapolate that to China, which has ~200 times the population, it’s pretty sobering… a million Chinese may die in just the next couple months, let’s pray that’s not the case though. China is kinda in a no win scenario.

It's not just Shanghai. Other major cities such as Shenzheng, Guangzhou is on the verge of another lockdown. You are getting downvoted for pointing out the truth (Chinese vaccine is ineffective, massive propaganda against mRNA vaccines, backward healthcare system). The whole country is getting hysterical and shutdown itself when everyone else has returned to normal life despite of COVID.

Unless China made major policy change (by approving Pfizer vaccine, and massive inoculate their own population, which would mean admission their own vaccine is ineffective), China will face the same problem multi times a year. A country with rotating quarantine across major population centers, a constant supply chain disruption, and lack of economic growth.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

On the taller cells....
First, a taller cell means electrons in the middle have to travel father to exit the cell so the ratio of superior cooling done at the ends will be less. So the cooling done at the ends will have less impact on the middle. And there will be an increase of heat at the ends due to MORE electrons passing through that mass. More considerations and engineering would need to be done than just make it longer and save manufacturing costs.

Second, increasing the length of the cells will raise the floorboards and thus reduce critical headroom. here again, re-engineering the body.

I can see longer cells being a better fit for the semi.

4680 design seems to me heavily influenced by the desire to only cool on the ends. This in my estimation was(is) most of the end delay in ramping production. They couldn't find a way to safely cool the packs withought cooling the middle of the cells.

If that's the case, and the end-cooling dream is now somewhat out the window, stands reason there's room to stretch the cell length for truck/robotaxi/semi pack design.

In addition to assuming they could solve end-cooling, I'm sure they also thought CT pack design would be 100% locked in by 2Q22. That delay also gives them time to pivot on design if they feel it's considerably more optimal for the long haul.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's not just Shanghai. Other major cities such as Shenzheng, Guangzhou is on the verge of another lockdown. You are getting downvoted for pointing out the truth (Chinese vaccine is ineffective, massive propaganda against mRNA vaccines, backward healthcare system). The whole country is getting hysterical and shutdown itself when everyone else has returned to normal life despite of COVID.

Unless China made major policy change (by approving Pfizer vaccine, and massive inoculate their own population, which would mean admission their own vaccine is ineffective), China will face the same problem multi times a year. A country with rotating quarantine across major population centers, a constant supply chain disruption, and lack of economic growth.

The Chinese vaccine is less effective, not ineffective. And we know omicron to be far less deadly. The info advantage will be a big help in mitigating the impact of their spikes.

Nothing is keeping Tesla from housing employees onsite and continuing production, to the extent they can with supply constraints. Pretty sure they'd do that before shuttering for 7 weeks.

There's already crazy push back on this lockdown, they'll moderate the rules so no doubt. I have faith the Shanghai Tesla team will impress with their ability to catch up once they're past this.