Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

"Any number of times, I have driven SF-SEA in a single day".
Clear now?

Erk.

That's the obvious other intent of that phrasing that I completely missed when hearing it in my head.

My bad. Sorry @Discoducky for missing what you obviously meant and thanks @AudubonB for the clarification (and feel free to delete so as to avoid taking up valuable thread space with my gaff)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Fun morning for TSLA.

Legit institutional selling at the open.
Legit buying soon after.
Now an effortless MMD.

We shall see where it goes, but all indicators point to cheap 1Q earnings YOLOs.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fun morning for TSLA.

Legit institutional selling at the open.
Legit buying soon after.
Now an effortless MMD.

We shall see where it goes, but all indicators point to cheap 1Q earnings YOLOs.

View attachment 792410

From here I'm moderately bullish on Q1 earnings, but I'm getting pretty bearish on Q2. Even back in 2021 I figured we would see the stock stay fairly flat during the new factory ramps, and that was before all the macro headwinds. After earnings my short term bets will be for Q4, maybe Q3.

 

[BornToFly]

The Chinese vaccine is less effective, not ineffective. And we know omicron to be far less deadly.

It is less deadly at the individual level, but more deadly at the population level because it is much more contagious. Again, we had more Omicron deaths in the US in the months of January and February then we had from Covid in any of the previous 10 months (and the US was far more vaccinated and had more natural immunity than China).

 

[mongo]

don't think that "up to 200 miles in 15 min" is for the 250KW SuC V2 rate; I think* that's for 350KW:

(63.4 KWh / 0.25 Hr) * (279mi / 200mi) = 354 KW
*This is based on my previous estimate that Austin Std Y has an ~63.4 KWh pack.

Your math is off. It should be
63.4 kWh*(200mi/279mi)/.25 hr = 182 KW average charge rate.

No. 182 KW for 15 min is 45.5 KWh. 182/4

AD, you flipped range and recharge originally.

63.4kWh pack * 200 miles of refill / 279 miles total = 45.4kWh
45.4kWh/.25h=182kW

 

[-=buzz=-]

I would have thought cooling from the top was better (depending on where heat generated & where anode/cathode are, I forget). If they've found that side-cooling is fine, then I would have thought production of a taller cell would be a great idea. So much of the hard work of manufacturing is at the ends. Fewer, longer cells means fewer cells to test, less to control, fewer chips needed - but obviously depends on the space to use them.

Although there is a possibility that rolling is harder if the cell is longer.

Nice long cells for Optimus' legs and arms. Double/larger height for Cybertruck? Ah... Semi / HGV (I struggle to use the word semi in polite conversation, I'm half serious).

Don't forget the Roadster.
If I remember correctly it was originally a double stacked 18650/2170 bag of potatoes in a carbon fiber frame, now going to a single stack structural pack?

 

[CLK350]

SR MIT (made in Texas, aka 4680) Model Y getting readied for publication on the Tesla ordering page - my guess is it will not Osborn the current LR MY if as expected deliveries are far out and it is judiciously priced.

Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

Model Y SR AWD's spec has been added to the source code of the order page. EPA Range: 279 miles (19-inch wheel, 5-seat), 0-60 mph: 5 s

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[-=buzz=-]

50% more capacity for only the cost of a slightly longer tube and contents; or else, use ~1/3 fewer 120 mm tall cells for the same battery capacity - a significant cost reduction and saves a little weight (fewer cell end caps and such). However, the contribution to pack rigidity will be somewhat less with these taller, relatively narrower cells.

Another win-win from Tesla.

Are you sure?

Isn't the distance between the top and bottom sheets the main factor for load-bearing? (Assuming the sheets themselves stay below their tensil/compression
limits) The cells only hold them at a constant distance to prevent buckling...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It is less deadly at the individual level, but more deadly at the population level because it is much more contagious. Again, we had more Omicron deaths in the US in the months of January and February then we had from Covid in any of the previous 10 months (and the US was far more vaccinated and had more natural immunity than China).

We were what....60% vaccinated in January? I think China can adequately keep their death toll down due to the advantages of hindsight on the US spike and the ease of taking action under totalitarian rule.

They're likely just vaccinating like crazy right now. Chinese, Russian, Pfizer, Moderna everything. No forms, no warnings about symptoms, just stabbing.

Even if they screw it up completely, what's to keep Tesla from housing an entirely Pfizer-vaccinated workforce onsite? And their suppliers from doing the same? I just think there are some pretty obvious reasons to not get hysterical on production impact.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

SR MIT (made in Texas, aka 4680) Model Y getting readied for publication on the Tesla ordering page - my guess is it will not Osborn the current LR MY if as expected deliveries are far out and it is judiciously priced.

Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

Model Y SR AWD's spec has been added to the source code of the order page. EPA Range: 279 miles (19-inch wheel, 5-seat), 0-60 mph: 5 s

teslamotorsclub.com

Keeping in mind 97% of Tesla buyers have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

 

[CLK350]

Not clear whether Giga Shanghai's area is part of the first areas being un locked

Shanghai eases lockdown in some areas despite record COVID infections

China's financial centre of Shanghai started easing its lockdown in some areas on Monday despite reporting a record of more than 25,000 new COVID-19 infections, as authorities sought to get the city moving again after more than two weeks.

www.reuters.com

 

[SageBrush]

Apparently Tesla gave a big hint on the Giga Texas slides regarding charging speeds on the Model Y.

Fingers crossed !!
I have not travelled a lot, but 15 minute stops are perfect for my wife and me.

 

[ZachF]

Don't forget the Roadster.
If I remember correctly it was originally a double stacked 18650/2170 bag of potatoes in a carbon fiber frame, now going to a single stack structural pack?

My guess is the Roadster will be a carbon fiber structural pack, but it won’t be just a flat pack because of packaging all that KWh into such a small car.

 

[SageBrush]

I don't think that "up to 200 miles in 15 min" is for the 250KW SuC V2 rate; I think* that's for 350KW:

(63.4 KWh / 0.25 Hr) * (279mi / 200mi) = 354 KW

800 miles per hour rate,
times the Wh/mile. I estimate 260 Wh/mile EPA

So 800*0.26 = 208 kW

 

[UncaNed]

4680 design seems to me heavily influenced by the desire to only cool on the ends. This in my estimation was(is) most of the end delay in ramping production. They couldn't find a way to safely cool the packs withought cooling the middle of the cells.

If that's the case, and the end-cooling dream is now somewhat out the window, stands reason there's room to stretch the cell length for truck/robotaxi/semi pack design.

In addition to assuming they could solve end-cooling, I'm sure they also thought CT pack design would be 100% locked in by 2Q22. That delay also gives them time to pivot on design if they feel it's considerably more optimal for the long haul.

It's a wonder there's no heat sink or coolant channel or something right down the middle of each cell; that would halve the distance heat has to travel. They could double the cell diameter.

 

[ZachF]

Not clear whether Giga Shanghai's area is part of the first areas being un locked

Shanghai eases lockdown in some areas despite record COVID infections

China's financial centre of Shanghai started easing its lockdown in some areas on Monday despite reporting a record of more than 25,000 new COVID-19 infections, as authorities sought to get the city moving again after more than two weeks.

www.reuters.com

It’s not only the factory that needs to be unlocked, but the entire supply chain to the factory in order for full production to take place.

Also, it will take a while for the factory to ramp back up.

If you factor in parts shortages during startup and ramping time writing off half of Shanghai’s production in Q2 is not unlikely, even if production restarts soon.

 

[ZachF]

Even if they screw it up completely, what's to keep Tesla from housing an entirely Pfizer-vaccinated workforce onsite? And their suppliers from doing the same? I just think there are some pretty obvious reasons to not get hysterical on production impact.

The factories that supply Giga Shanghai would need to do this too… can’t build a car with no parts.

 

[bkp_duke]

We were what....60% vaccinated in January? I think China can adequately keep their death toll down due to the advantages of hindsight on the US spike and the ease of taking action under totalitarian rule.

They're likely just vaccinating like crazy right now. Chinese, Russian, Pfizer, Moderna everything. No forms, no warnings about symptoms, just stabbing.

Even if they screw it up completely, what's to keep Tesla from housing an entirely Pfizer-vaccinated workforce onsite? And their suppliers from doing the same? I just think there are some pretty obvious reasons to not get hysterical on production impact.

Someone here posted a couple days ago that it's not the factory work-force that is the issue. It's getting supplies into the factory, and cars out of the lot. Apparently there is a shortage during the lockdown of drivers authorized to be moving about.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The factories that supply Giga Shanghai would need to do this too… can’t build a car with no parts.

Tesla's vertically integrated, they actually build the cars.

Considering what we've seen in the past from Elon, and especially from the Shanghai team, I think zero impact to production is more likely than this impacting half of 2Q.

Taiwan supplies the chip(I assume?) and they're better vaccinated than the US population.

Tesla is chip constrained in 2022, so if they can get the planned amount of chips, I don't see why they can't ramp up a bit and make up the difference later in the quarter.

 

[ZachF]

Gloomy much?

I actually have some hope.

Lockdown to be lifted on more than 7,000 Shanghai communities and sites

This is ultimately little more than a hiccup in Tesla’s long term story, but you can’t stick your head in the sand to what’s happening now. If weak longs use this as an excuse to sell, just take it as an opportunity to get more cheap chairs.

These Chinese lockdowns are probably ultimately going to throw even more monkey wrenches into the ongoing supply chain drama and convince even more people to shift production outside of China.