Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Since it's late, I'll share a rumor, but take it with a grain of salt.

Whispers on Reddit that the Model Y SR AWD will be priced at $59,990, or $3,000 below the LR AWD.

It was corroborated by a reputable user, as well as other rumors heard by a mod.

That will insure no one buys it and goes to LR or the savings on the pack is so great the margin is much better for Tesla VS say a non-4680 LR.

Tesla Economist has a theory that the EPA numbers on this car are wrong. The weights are weird and the efficiency is weird.

If the range was a bit higher, it would all make a lot more sense.

Another possibility is they are being super conservative with the range and using software limiting for a while until the packs prove out.

PS: Someone else posted a link to this yesterday or a day before, but worth revisiting perhaps.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is a chart of the historical SP action in TSLA during 2020H1: (period including Fremont prod.pause)

Notice how quickly TSLA came back once clarity was restored. By beginning of 2020H2, the SP was already on its epic climb which would see the 5:1 stock split, the S&P 500 addition, and two (2) cap raises for $5B each.

This too shall pass.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Economist has a theory that the EPA numbers on this car are wrong. The weights are weird and the efficiency is weird. If the range was a bit higher, it would all make a lot more sense.

Another possibility is they are being super conservative with the range and using software limiting for a while until the packs prove out.

Tesla hasn't given away free batteries via software limiting since the days of the S/X 60/75 KWh pack. They are extremely unlikely to be doing so now while 4680 cell production is limited.

T.Econ channel frequently ignores other relevant factors and puts out knee-jerk conclusions. His classic was insisting that the Model S Plaid would, absolutely MUST, have 4680s because, well, he WANTED them. Turning off a 10GWh/yr supply of Japanese 18650s was not even mentioned, nor was the fact that there was no 4680 supply in 2021Q2 when Plaid S came out.

The range for Austin Std AWD Model Y is likely correct, the efficiency is likely understated (Tesla also has made this type of request before for their EPA ratings).

The weight has yet to be confirmed. Somebody eventually will put one on a weigh scale and then we'll know. Patience. Bonus points if somebody measures the top-of-charge voltage for the pack (information available from most 3rd-party Level-3 charger sessions)

Cheers!

 

[Gigapress]

2438 vehicles per day on average, considering the 4 days of shutdown in March. New record for Giga Shanghai.

For reference, December was 2154, so growth has been 13% since then, which is 64% annualized if we model it as exponential growth.

This was wrong. The numbers referenced were actually deliveries, not production.

Tesla China drew down inventory a lot this quarter. Daily production held steady in the last few months, which is still impressive.

 

[Thekiwi]

Rob Maurer on his latest Tesla Daily podcast shared some news he had received from his sources (It appears he has an internal person feeding him some info):

Two bits of info for Shanghai Factory:
- Management are trying hard to avoid “zero production” in April from Shanghai
- The “Phase 3” expansion of the Shanghai factory that was due to occur in April has been cancelled.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Initially surprised at the small difference given going SR->LR on a Model 3 is $9000, but I suppose you're also getting an extra drive unit with the 3 while both Ys are already AWD.

I'd say the other reason they are only discounting the SR by 3k is because they can. Insatiable demand is a wonderful thing. The correlation between cogs and sale price is not strong at the moment.

 

[lascavarian]

like, how many divorces can one have in 2-years ?

To clarify and if I am understanding your question, when I said crazy i was not saying the work was crazy hard.

My experience was that TV creates an “audience“ that produces a narcotic called celebrity or fame that falls upon those producing the TV audience. Everyone in TV is affected by this product and it creates a loosening of social norms and morality that is replaced by ego.

The “audience” produced is addictive and destructive IMO to humans. It is complicated in its many permutations and has spread beyond TV these days. Celebrity leads to a kind of insanity. I found myself working among the crazy and not in a good way.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

"Any number of times, I have driven SF-SEA in a single day".
Clear now?

I'm not going to lie, I found the conversation after my post to be kind of hilarious so I made no attempts to correct or clarify my grammar there.

 

[Chenkers]

- The “Phase 3” expansion of the Shanghai factory that was due to occur in April has been cancelled.

He said "delayed" not cancelled (@10.43). There's a pretty big difference between the two! It should get going once the COVID lockdowns subside and the approval/construction process can flow again.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Briefly... UK - Tesla/EV interest might be increased (for business drivers especially), due to ongoing protests (from 1 April) blocking oil refineries. Headlines like "‘One in three petrol stations closed’ in south of England amid oil terminal protests". Organisers are "Just Stop Oil" - mainly young.

Many little nudges changing zeitgeist and arguments for EVs on practicality grounds. Wise 2 car households probably thinking of getting at least one EV. That could drastically reduce ICE new car sales. Quickest EVs to get are probably Teslas

 

[Usain]

Since it's late, I'll share a rumor, but take it with a grain of salt.

Whispers on Reddit that the Model Y SR AWD will be priced at $59,990, or $3,000 below the LR AWD.

It was corroborated by a reputable user, as well as other rumors heard by a mod.

That price makes perfect sense to me. I don't expect volume production for awhile so Tesla needs demand to be low.

It's crazy to think that I took delivery of my MY Long Range exactly one year ago with a price of just $49,900.

 

[Phobi]

What does Berlin have in store I wonder, and can Texas supply it (drive units) in the mean time since Shanghai is paused? Exciting times indeed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513810508134113283

 

[thx1139]

Rob Maurer on his latest Tesla Daily podcast shared some news he had received from his sources (It appears he has an internal person feeding him some info):

Two bits of info for Shanghai Factory:
- Management are trying hard to avoid “zero production” in April from Shanghai
- The “Phase 3” expansion of the Shanghai factory that was due to occur in April has been cancelled.

Not cancelled delayed, because well if people cant work they cant work on a new expansion.

 

[Knightshade]

What does Berlin have in store I wonder, and can Texas supply it (drive units) in the mean time since Shanghai is paused? Exciting times indeed.

shipping DUs from Texas to Berliin, while Shanghai still isn't providing batteries to Berlin, doesn't seem to make much sense?

 

[Artful Dodger]

U.S. Tech macros buoyant in the pre-Market, awaiting CPI/inflation data at 08:30 a.m. EST

EDIT: Numbers were good (the Market tells me so)

Futures extend gains after March CPI data | REUTERS (8:47am EDT)

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

[ZeApelido]

I love that Russ Mitchell and other hacks get frustrated Tesla has no public relations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513682151778050050

Ooh Bertel Schmidt has gotten in on the act, this "auto industry expert" has been bashing Tesla for many years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513857197834313733

 

[JRP3]

Another possibility is they are being super conservative with the range and using software limiting for a while until the packs prove out.

One criticism of Tesla has been that they get less than rated range in the real world compared to other EV's. Tesla may be adjusting their ratings to better reflect real world results.

 

[UltradoomY]

Ooh Bertel Schmidt has gotten in on the act, this "auto industry expert" has been bashing Tesla for many years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513857197834313733

Gotta say - your hair is majestic Joe!
The burns on the teslaq is just icing on the pompadour cake!

 

[ZeApelido]

Gotta say - your hair is majestic Joe!
The burns on the teslaq is just icing on the pompadour cake!

TSLAQ to say Joe's hair:

1) Isn't real

2) Will fall out any day now

3) Competition from people who can grow real hair is coming





EDIT:

And right on queue, Joe's avatar is claimed to be fake!

 

[fiveten]

All of a sudden up 2.75% in premarket...whats up?