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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Too much negativity in this thread today. FSD (and therefore robotaxis) is a solved problem - they will keep knocking down the remaining challenges as they have done so successfully up until now. Many of you have become rich beyond your dreams and think it impossible that TSLA will keep going up because you have never been this lucky before. It is more logical to believe that the trend will continue. Tesla will execute and TSLA will go up more than you think. The sky is not the limit.

Stop it or I will start posting super bull poems to drown out the rot.
Even Gali isn’t convinced about Robotaxi and FSD anymore

 
the Mobile connector used to be a necessity. People might remember the old day when EV owners went to camping sites in order to charge at a 14-50 outlet there.
I used to use it at home too

i think statistics showed that it is used less and less because superchargers are almost everywhere now. Nobody needs the mobile charger anymore on road trips and the mobile charger was never meant to be used at home anyway.
 
I find Musk’s claim hard to believe. No one, not a single owner I know, bought the wall charger. All use the mobile charging cable. That's what I've done for both of my teslas over 6 years. Also, no, it isn't the same price to install a wall charger and a nema 14-50 outlet. The outlet cost me $30 in parts and one hour of electrician time. Far less than even buying the wall charger.

Of the people buying wall chargers, how many are doing it because they aren't informed about using an outlet?

I see this as a greedy move by Tesla, in line with Apple, which is not a favorable comparison in my view.

We only use the wall charger at home. Plug and play easy, no brainer, ability to use dip switches to set max charge rate. Green color lights moving clearly indicate charging. I wonder how many people use wall outlets because they aren't informed about using the wall chargers.

Labor costs for our earlier 14/50 and the wall charger were about the same. (we tried a if they build it they will come approach for our Airbnb before we had an Ecar).

In 3 years of owning a 3, we only used the included cables/adapters at one hotel on two trips as there were minimal other options.

I see this as good resource management from a company I invest in!
 
Thats ark for you. They come out with wildly optimistic scenarios for all their stocks.

FSD till 2030's value does NOT come with robotaxi revenue but from FSD buy in/subscription if autonomy is mostly solved in 2 to 3 years. It will take a decade or two for Americans to even come comfortable with the idea of letting go of their cars and summon a Tesla for every day use. I would focus on battery scaling than robotaxi revenue.
I think robotaxi adoption will vary widely based on mostly age.
So yes, most people above 50 will take a 'wait-and-see' approach.
My hunch is that the 20-50 group will be hard to predict - some will be early adopters, but most won't.

All the TMC anecdotes of Tesla-loving kids going back many years. leads me to believe that the now 10-20 year age group will simply *love* robotaxis. Over time that group just grows.
And maybe they can persuade their parents, uncles, aunts and even grandparents to try robotaxies.
 
Exact situation here. Dryer plug plus mobile charger in the garage for the 3.

But now I have a Y on order and I don't care for a mobile connector.

I do think the availability will not be an issue if they stop including one with every new car.
I think this will be ok if they loosen up availability a lot and perhaps sell them directly at delivery sites or rent them as a subscription service.

Range anxiety has not suddenly disappeared IMO. Perhaps this decision results from some discussions at the White House last week.

The great thing about this is that you will no longer have to include a mobile charger with a trade in since they are no longer “standard”.

CarMax wanted to ding me (my trade-in quote for Tesla) $1000 if I didn’t include a mobile charger on an EV I was trading in on my 3.
 
I arrive at a 2025 share price of $3,815 on the auto & energy businesses alone.
Robotaxis & Optimus are like owning free options that would get the price above $3,815/shr.
That $3,815 share price would be about a $4.4T market cap.

I arrive at the $3,815 price as follows:
2025 Deliveries: 4.7m cars
2025 Global Auto market share: 5.6%
2025 GAAP Profit: $54.7B
2025 GAAP EPS: $47.68/Share
2025 Multiple: 80

EPS x Multiple = Share Price
$47.68 x 80 = $3,815

I admit that there needs to be some strong growth beyond 2025 to garner that 80 multiple. As long as Tesla has ample access to batteries, I believe they will grow strongly as they expand their product line and sales footprint.

And for the naysayers that can't believe a car company can carry a $4T valuation:
Tesla today makes on average $15k on each vehicle sold. I estimate by 2025, that will increase to about $17.5k.
Selling 4.7m vehicles at $17.5k gross profit . . . .just do the math.
My WAG is 8.5M vehicles at $20K gross in 2027 => 170 B
(cont. production optimization and improvement, cont. extreme demand and pricing power, cont. ramp of current GFs plus one extra)
Assume 50 B for fixed costs and taxes - still 120 B left.

Given such extreme growth a 100 forward multiple seems fair.
So $12T or 12X in 5.5 years - not too shabby.
 
Most people I have talked to didn't even know you can charge the Tesla with a NEMA 14-50. Everyone just went straight for the wall connector as it's a "required purchase". My neighbor has a S on order and bought the wall connector months ago. I am the only one between living between two Tesla owners with a Nema14-50.

When I bought my S in 2015, there was an instruction graphic on tesla.com showing electricians how to install a NEMA 14-50 upside down so the plug would hang properly. It was made obvious that the wall connector was unnecessary if you had the NEMA. What changed?
 
My WAG is 8.5M vehicles at $20K gross in 2027 => 170 B
(cont. production optimization and improvement, cont. extreme demand and pricing power, cont. ramp of current GFs plus one extra)
Assume 50 B for fixed costs and taxes - still 120 B left.

Given such extreme growth a 100 forward multiple seems fair.
So $12T or 12X in 5.5 years - not too shabby.
The only way WS will give a 100 forward PE to TSLA at that point is if was still growing at 50% top line. According to your numbers that would mean 255 B for 2028. And forward looking as it is, WS would like to assume the same for 2029, or ~370 B.

Perhaps we can assume a lower PE in 2027, a premium to where AAPL is now.

I am hoping / planning for 3X but will be happy to receive 20X by 2030. This is not just about cars. TSLA continuing to explode in this fashion will require success and stunning growth in Energy, Optimus, and, dare I say, FSD.
 
When I bought my S in 2015, there was an instruction graphic on tesla.com showing electricians how to install a NEMA 14-50 upside down so the plug would hang properly. It was made obvious that the wall connector was unnecessary if you had the NEMA. What changed?
They stopped including the 14-50 adapter with the MC in 2019.
Also, there used to be a 14-50 only corded MC.
FWIW, the 14-50 adapter is currently shown out of stock.
 
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So much hand wringing over a charge cord. I was in the minority, that was happy to see another boost to margins and think that probably about 50% of people buying Teslas will just put it in the trunk for emergencies and never use it. People around here were cheering every time they raise the price by $3k. The way I see it, this was a $400 price increase at the same time they were reducing wasted charge cables by those who really don't need them.

Nonetheless, I'm glad to see that Elon acted on feedback received. I think the $200 option at purchase is a good compromise.
 
Yup. I never set out on a road trip without the mobile connector, although, the only bit that I have ever needed (in an unplanned charging situation) is the J1772 adapter. When I've actually used it, the alternative would have been being stranded somewhere.
I also always travel with the mobile connector and routinely use it at remote destinations (family and friends all have 14-50 outlets in their garages).
 
So much hand wringing over a charge cord. I was in the minority, that was happy to see another boost to margins and think that probably about 50% of people buying Teslas will just put it in the trunk for emergencies and never use it. People around here were cheering every time they raise the price by $3k. The way I see it, this was a $400 price increase at the same time they were reducing wasted charge cables by those who really don't need them.

Nonetheless, I'm glad to see that Elon acted on feedback received. I think the $200 option at purchase is a good compromise.
I think this move is to extract some useful chips out of the mobile connector for powewalls or other products. Awfully a stupid way to increase margins by a few hundred bucks when you can just do a 500 dollar price hike. Even with the backlash, Elon still doesn't want to freely hand them out.