Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

That's because it removes risk and increases profit for them by ensuring they are in control of the direction. By driving markets lower than their natural states, they virtually guarantee the turn-around will happen at the predictable point of their choosing.

Very wise and spot on.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nice to see TSLA diverging from the rest of QQQ this morning. It would be nice to be judged purely on our own merits.

Perhaps we're thru earnings, numbers have been digested, and decision are being made.

 

[Zero CO2]

While the chances of the overall market having put in a bottom are higher now than one week ago, two weeks ago, etc, I would caution that it's still far from a sure thing. The chance of TSLA having put in a bottom is higher than that but also far from a sure thing.

Wall Street loves to extend bull runs far past the point they have any business of being and they are just about as fond as driving bearish trends well past their natural level. That's because it removes risk and increases profit for them by ensuring they are in control of the direction. By driving markets lower than their natural states, they virtually guarantee the turn-around will happen at the predictable point of their choosing.

I don't know if this is it or not, but I mention it because this bottom does not have the classical shape of capitulation. My primary point is, we still don't know and people who claim to know are wrong time and time again. No one calls these things with reliable accuracy - the best market prognosticators give the speculator a small statistical edge.

Of course, it doesn't really matter to me as I am already fully positioned for the future. Got TSLA?

for me the bottom (end of this phase in the markets) will be when GME and AMC collapse back to pre-pandemic levels ... once the meme stock casino is declared dead and over ... it has started with HOOD ... to your point i am amazed this has lasted this long way beyond the free money phase....

 

[wtlloyd]

Regarding new factory locations, it needs to be pointed out that there is a considerable advantage to continue building out Austin. There is a cost savings, but far more valuable is the time savings.
The matured working relationships with building and planning departments of local governments. Weeding out poor performers and bad actors and perfecting communications with suppliers, fabricators, and site contractors - and discovering best source for materials. Building your site design and supervision team, and a HUGE asset is the experience gained in managing logistics and sequencing of the whole construction process. That is loacation-specific knowledge. Uprooting this management team to seed a new location - why would you do that when you've got over 80% of a site not yet built out?
Watch how fast the cathode building goes up, then consider how long it is to purchase land and get the whole spectrum of approvals before spade touches earth. Why in the world would Tesla start all over in a different state/part of the country?
So, for the USA, there will be no new sites announced, at least not for auto Gigafactorys, until Austin can see site build-out on the horizon.

 

[Hock1]

Why? So others don't have to think about it? I don't want to think about it, but he's the one who decided to take this journey. This should be front and center discussion as he heads the company we invest in and buy products from.

Serious stuff went down on Jan.6th and he seems to be (because he continues to bash the left on his new company platform) on that side.....not good.

 

[Hock1]

Apparently, the mods are in polical agreement with your basic hypotheses. Hence your continuing existence. I for one would like you stop. TIA

 

[StealthP3D]

for me the bottom (end of this phase in the markets) will be when GME and AMC collapse back to pre-pandemic levels ... once the meme stock casino is declared dead and over ... it has started with HOOD ... to your point i am amazed this has lasted this long way beyond the free money phase....

I think the whole meme stock thing was so weird and unusual that the overall market will likely correct well before meme stocks finally bottom. It could also be the other way around but one thing I'm very confident of is that the price action of collapsed meme stocks are highly unlikely to be a useable leading indicator.

Again, the real point here is that people love to speculate and act like they know but the market will have the final say and its unlikely to prove the majority right. Quite the opposite actually.

 

[Zero CO2]

SEC nearly doubles staff to crack down on crypto abuses

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger joins the Live show to discuss the SEC nearly doubling its staff count to police wrong-doing in crypto markets.

finance.yahoo.com

more SEC staff to harass Elon ... not good (used crypto as rationale to double staff)

 

[2daMoon]

Just imagine what multiple of staff would be required to police shorting/option abuses.

I guess they ran out of budget before they could deal with that problem.

 

[DriveMe]

View attachment 800025

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NIO is not even listed. I thought they delivered more than 25K vehicles in Q1?
I guess that wasn't enough to make it to the top 20!

 

[ggies07]

Apparently, the mods are in polical agreement with your basic hypotheses. Hence your continuing existence. I for one would like you stop. TIA

Haven't posted about it since yesterday...it was a small rant. Plus, I've seen on here that some people don't have Twitter....I don't post all of Elon's tweets, obviously, but that one caught my eye. It's important to try and understand this man, however small of a glimpse we get from a tweet.

Carry on now, carry on...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon clips tldrom the Met Gala.....he looks absurdly chill and mentally healthy. Relative to the past and just in general.

How in the hell is that physically possible? This dude is amazing. I think he's feeling pretty certain about Mars and that's all he wanted. Great to see.

 

[spacerfc]

Elon clips tldrom the Met Gala.....he looks absurdly chill and mentally healthy. Relative to the past and just in general.

How in the hell is that physically possible? This dude is amazing. I think he's feeling pretty certain about Mars and that's all he wanted. Great to see.

But but but he's losing his mind because see this tweet he just made, How Dare Him holding an opinion different from me, he must be having mental issues because nobody should have opinion different from ME!!! /s

 

[Knightshade]

Hadn't seen this mentioned:

Tesla cancels employee bonuses tied to delivery quotas, raises salaries to compensate

Tesla employee bonuses tied to delivery quotas have been canceled as the automaker instead raises salaries to compensate.

electrek.co

Not sure what % of company payroll this covers, but reads like another step toward moving away from the EOQ rush (while also reducing payroll costs as net compensation expense is being reduced)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Not sure what % of company payroll this covers, but reads like another step toward moving away from the EOQ rush (while also reducing payroll costs as net compensation expense is being reduced)

Nope. That would just be Fred Lambert being disingenuous to stir the pot.

These quotas were not going to be met due to supply/covid disruptions. So to be more fair and keep people focused on the plan, Tesla just gave them a bump slightly lower than the bonus they had no chance of getting.

So total cost is up.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not based on that article. Two bullet points lower:

"The project will be completely off-grid, said Back, with a Tesla 3.8 MW solar array powering the mine, and 12-megawatt-hour (MWh) Tesla batteries storing excess electricity produced during the day so that the mine can run at night and on days without sunshine."

New generation capacity, not just storage. The mine is up to 1MW and there to use any excess power.

Thanks for correcting me, but my point is simply that I don't see this as a "official Tesla project".
Like, they provided panels and batteries, but were paid 100% to do so.
Do you have evidence of the contrary?

 

[ZachF]

Elon's opening remarks on the Q4 2021 conference call are clear:

Capacity expansion will continue through maximizing output of each factory and building new factories and new locations in the future. Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will get through 2022 look at new locations, and probably be able to announce new locations toward the end of this year, I expect.

So yes, there will be one or two new locations announced by end of this year, or at least by early 2023.

My guess is Nashville and Spain for two of them.

 

[Discoducky]

Hadn't seen this mentioned:

Tesla cancels employee bonuses tied to delivery quotas, raises salaries to compensate

Tesla employee bonuses tied to delivery quotas have been canceled as the automaker instead raises salaries to compensate.

electrek.co

Not sure what % of company payroll this covers, but reads like another step toward moving away from the EOQ rush (while also reducing payroll costs as net compensation expense is being reduced)

Thought they did that in 2019.

Tesla ends sale commission, increases salaries and stock bonus after compensation cut

Tesla is reversing most of its “online sales only” strategy launched earlier this year. The automaker is going to hire...

electrek.co

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Tesla was very risky around 2017. They could have gone bust trying to ramp Model 3. You couldn't be sure they would make it.

Now instead of, "Will they make it or not?", it's "Will they grow fast or will the grow really, really, really fast?"

While obviously not privy to the full details, many here have stated that Tesla's access to additional funds, via a wide variety of avenues, was never in question. I concur.

Sometimes Elon says things to increase the sense of urgency among the ENTIRE Tesla team, something that I suspect he needs to do because too many don't think as deeply as he does.

The M3 ramp was terrible, but survivable, especially given Tesla's long-term outlook, and lenders were standing by to lend additional billions, and shareholders would have easily tolerated additional dilution as well.

 

[ZachF]

Pretty muted/uneventful day so far