Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

TSLA has regained about 60% of what it lost yesterday, comparing to the NASDAQ gaining all of what it lost yesterday more than twice over.

Coilng the spring is.

 

[Cape Coddess]

We know this but I'm hoping that it's enough to counteract mainstreams thinking about that ridiculous documentary that's coming out this Friday, 'Elon Musk's Crash Course'. If not, I've got some cash burning a hole in my pocket in case there's a drop on Monday.

"Registrations for new EVs soared 60% in the first three months of 2022 ...

"Tesla vehicles had the most new EV registrations with 113,882, representing 59% of electric cars registered during that period."

Registrations for electric vehicles soar, signaling increasing mainstream acceptance

Registrations for new EVs soared 60% in the first three months of 2022 even though new car registrations were actually down 18% on the whole.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Singuy]

Nasdaq 100 went down 140 points (1.2%) yesterday, and is up 290 points (2.7%) today as of now.

TSLA went down 45 points (5.9%) yesterday, and is up 27 points (3.8%) today as of now.

TSLA has regained about 60% of what it lost yesterday, comparing to the NASDAQ gaining all of what it lost yesterday more than twice over.

Edit: The day is not over (and actually hasn't even begun), so I hope you're right, but I find the chances of it happening to be extremely low unfortunately.

Just based on the under performance in premarket, I put the chance of going red today higher than recovering from yesterday.

 

[CHGolferJim]

If TWTR purchase falls through, would be nice for Elon to buy back his shares.

Not likely, but we can all dream, right?

Didn’t he pay down his margin loans?

 

[bro1999]

Maybe a round or two left yet.

Twitter just filed their proxy statement for the purchase including the reported line:
Twitter is committed to completing the transaction on the agreed price and terms as promptly as practicable.

Twitter Files Preliminary Proxy Statement for Acquisition by Elon Musk

They sure as hell want to complete the deal because the acquisition price Elon offered is now 33% higher than Twitter's current value. Lol

 

[CLK350]

You’re probably right. It was Elon that walked away first with the Saudis in the taking private debacle as they had made statements that eroded Elons trust in them.

IIRC, to be specific, the Saudis were spouting anti Tesla FUD while privately assuring Elon the deal was as good as done, BUT when he asked them to publicly announce it, they dissembled - which is when Elon walked away.

IMHO This TWTR situation is way different, Elon is intent on getting hold of Twitter, if not owning it privately, being able to control it completely. The saga isn't over .. who knows, some bright guys might be right now working on figuring out a Tesla version, bringing in easily all current Twitter users. Why? because it aligns with his own mission, to increase the probability of a better future. Which is the common mission of Tesla and SpaceX

 

[growler23]

As long term investors, do we care that much if the market is temporarily over-worried about twitter, and musk, and what emojis he uses?
Right now we have some very exciting news regarding tesla semi orders, and the reopening of shanghai, and the ramp up of two new factories, on top of absolutely insane demand.

Frankly I'm quite happy (as I don't intend to sell a single share under $1,200, and even then, retain 75% of it for longer), that everyone is focusing on the ephemeral fluff around Elon, rather than the fact that Tesla is ramping up to be an absolute juggernaut with Texas/Berlin/Semi.

On balance I'd rather Elon did no buy twitter, but as long as we keep getting crazy automotive margins, progress on FSD and a steady ramp up on production each quarter, its a minor concern to me.

I do look forward to the day the press suddenly sees a bunch of Tesla semis on the roads. They really are not fully aware of how big a 'new' market this is for the company.

I too want to know more about Tesla Semi orders going live, and what that may mean about Tesla's predictions about their predictions for battery numbers going forward. Someone here (wish I could recall who) posted an interesting graph about Tesla's expected battery production over the next few years, and it dwarfed anyone else's, including the battery manufacturers (not just the OEMs).
At the risk of getting back to the fundamentals of Tesla's business, its future, and the mission, anyone with knowledge want to comment?
Tesla Semi, if enough batteries are available, is a HUGE development. For the bottom line AND the mission.
Just so long as the Semis leave enough batteries for hundreds of thousands of Model Y's, which are already taking over the world, we are all good.

 

[henchman24]

The special meeting will confirm the go ahead (surprised Twitter went this route). Elon will buyout and walk. Then Twitter sues with an unknown outcome that could force and acquisition (they have happened before). This sets the stage for a year long process. It won’t be clean, but the markets wil move on after the first formalities are done with some discounting.

 

[jbcarioca]

I just emerged from the Indonesia rabbit hole…

Elon has been very clear that minimizing cost per ton to orbit is the sole objective for SpaceX right now.

Launching from Earth’s equatorial regions is optimal for reaching orbit or escape velocity because the rotation of the planet basically gives the rocket momentum for free at t=0.

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/basics/chapter14-1/

It’s also very helpful to have a large body of water such as an ocean directly adjacent to the launch site, especially on the eastern side since the launch would need to align with Earth’s eastward rotation for minimum cost. Launching over water keeps the noise and danger away from populated land and makes an emergency launch abortion maneuver much easier to do safely.

These reasons are why Kennedy Space Center is on the southeast coast of Florida and why Starbase is on the southern tip of Texas.

Starbase is actually pretty far north, though. With a latitude of 26 degrees, it’s not even in the tropics. Indonesia straddles the Equator. Jakarta sits at -6 degrees—not bad! Indonesia has an abundance of other less developed potential coastal launch sites situated exactly on the Equator. Indonesia’s geographic advantage for mass production of rocket launches destined for Mars is unique globally. Neighboring countries like Malaysia or the Philippines might be good candidates, except they’re smaller and not right on the Equator.

At 26 degrees, Earth’s rotational velocity is 1500 km/hr. At the equator (0 degrees) it’s 1680 km/hr, which is over 11% faster. Earth’s escape velocity is 40,000 km/hr. The extra 180 km/hr bonus compared to Starbase would make a Starship save an appreciable amount of cost per ton. With rocketry and multi trillion dollar launch volume, every little bit counts.

After doing this math I searched for “why aren’t more rocket launches done from Indonesia”, and the first result was a BBC article from April 2021 saying that Lapan, the Indonesian aeronautics and space administration, had been actively courting SpaceX for building launch sites in the country including “a large scale international space port”. An earlier 2020 article said the Indonesian President has been working on this proposal for years.

You know what else Indonesia has?

• The world’s largest nickel reserves
  • Source
• Proximity to Australia, which is a close 2nd place for nickel reserves and #1 for lithium production
  • Source
  • Also, proximity to China, which is 3rd place for lithium production
• 11th largest copper production in the world
• Proximity to East Asian semiconductor fabrication facilities
  • Particularly in Taiwan, S Korea, China and Japan
• A burgeoning software and tech industry
• Massive mining deals with Tesla—deals which seem to have included undisclosed plans for ore refining and at least one battery Terafactory
  • As one official said “If they [Tesla] only want to buy raw materials, we are not interested”
  • Source

Indonesia seems poised to be the next major Tesla and SpaceX hub in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming years, edging out competitors like Australia, Korea, India and Japan.

All true. Much closer to other SpaceX operations is Amapá, a Brazil State whose cpatol Airport lies straddling the Equator. I once landed there to refuel my plane. There have been multiple proposals to establish a Spaceport there. It is at the north size of the Amazon mouth.

 

[Nocturnal]

Lots of FED members talking today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sadly I don't think we are going to get it until Q3. The market is trending down right now, and Q2 for Tesla is going to be an outlier due to the Shanghai lockdown.

BULLETIN: U.S. retail sales climb in April in a sign economy still has spunk (25 min ago)

 

[henchman24]

Lots of FED members talking today.
View attachment 805408

Likely a day where they are reinforcing the 50bps message.

 

[jbcarioca]

SpaceX intends to have 1k Starships launching 1k times per year each. Every $1 saved per launch adds up to $1 million annually.

The Virgin Islands have too many disadvantages I think

• Size: probably too small to handle the million annual launches
  • Probably at least 100 launch pads needed if cycle time is ~1 hour
  • Also, tourism is most of their economy, and the noise from 2700 launches each day would be a no-go.
• Not suitable for manufacturing Starships and fuel on site
  • Very little existing industrial base and few natural resources
• The VIs are at 18.3 degrees north. Launching from the Equator gives 85 km/h of delta-V advantage.
• Not a place Elon will be frequently visiting for Tesla business

Musk companies always go hardcore and head directly for the best physically possible solution. SpaceX in particular has been laser-focused on minimizing the delay until the Martian colony becomes self-sustaining, which is directly a function of how much useful payload each Starship can deliver per trip, considering that SpaceX will be severely production constrained by Starship and Super Heavy manufacturing. The rate of delivery and the cost per ton of payload to Mars are a function of the latitude of the launch site. Orbital refueling helps make this less of an issue, but getting to orbit in the first place is the harder part because it requires 27000 km/hr of delta-v but the trip out of Earth’s gravity well requires only an additional 13000 km/hr. SpaceX wants to really optimize because their goal is to ship at least 1 million tons to Mars as soon as possible.

If they want at least 99% of the maximum possible assistance from Earth’s rotation in order to accelerate the timeline for developing a self-sufficient Martian colony, then they need to stay within 8 degrees north or south of the equator. Within that band of the planet, there are unfortunately only a few places with eastward-facing shoreline on a lake or ocean:

1. Brazil (around the Amazon River delta)
2. Galápagos Islands
3. French Guiana
4. Democratic Republic of the Congo
5. Uganda
6. Tanzania
7. Somalia
8. Kenya
9. Maldives
10. Sri Lanka (southern tip)
11. Malaysia
12. Singapore
13. Thailand (southern tip)
14. Indonesia
15. Philippines (southern tip)
16. Papua New Guinea
17. Solomon Islands

Indonesia is by far the strongest candidate for a launch industry of this magnitude. It has:

• A huge amount of suitable, no compromises coastline for launch pads
• 274 million population
• $4T GDP ($15k per capita) from diversified market economy
• 0.72 Human Development Index (high)
• G20 membership
• Abundant natural resources including nickel, copper and natural gas
• A massive partnership with Tesla in the works
• A President who has been seen meeting with Elon Musk at SpaceX facilities multiple times who has publicly stated for years that he’s actively pursuing development of spaceports for SpaceX

Singapore and Malaysia are similarly situated, wealthier and more highly developed, but they have much less population, natural resources, and eastward-facing coastline, plus they’re not directly on the Equator. Singapore and Malaysia almost certainly will play a significant role in the growing space economy, but Indonesia is better positioned to send off gigantic fleets of Starships hauling bulk freight every 26 months when the planets align.

Brazil’s northern coast and French Guiana are potentially solid secondary options for the Western Hemisphere for cargo that’s difficult or expensive to get to Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia.

If we expand the band a little bit wider, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Trinidad & Tobago become decent 2nd-tier candidates.

Overall, it’s really an obvious choice considering the goals of both Tesla and SpaceX and the limitations on Elon’s time.

Seen at Starbase yesterday:
View attachment 804863

Ain’t no place like Indonesia to make batteries and launch cargo to deep space!

Don’t write off Brazil so casually. Amapá State is on the north side of the Amazon river delta and straddles the Equator. There have been multiple plans for a Spaceport there, ones with NASA eventually failed only because of US demand for sovereign control. There are many highly qualified aerospace workers with Embraer the third largest plane maker which runs excellent educational programs and Vale, already a Tesla supplier plus large Developable and exiting reserves of most metals Tesla and SpaceX need. Obviously the list of advantages and disadvantages of every location are substantial. Within the next three years there will be major facilities in both of these countries and probably India too...plus some more Eastern Europe major suppliers or facilities.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tomorrow should be the interesting "inflation" day as the weekly US crude oil supply report comes out. We can't have peak inflation while oil prices are still artificially inflated by 50%.

This week's report should indicate another large build in commercial supplies due to decreased high-cost fuel usage and hopefully the 2nd week in a row of full 1M barrel per day releases from the strategic petroleum reserve.

All the hot news coverage tomorrow in your @jhm oil thread.

 

[Usain]

that everyone is focusing on the ephemeral fluff around Elon, rather than the fact that Tesla is ramping up to be an absolute juggernaut with Texas/Berlin/Semi.

And in case anyone missed the point, the reason that the opening of Semi orders is so bullish is because it means Tesla has a lot of confidence in 4680 production. So it goes far beyond the Semi itself. It has implications for Cybertruck, Semi, and storage. It also has huge implications for margins and volume of Model Y production.

I think most people here know this, but it's worth repeating.

Open orders for Semi is a huge, huge buy signal.

 

[Usain]

Tesla Semi, if enough batteries are available, is a HUGE development. For the bottom line AND the mission.
Just so long as the Semis leave enough batteries for hundreds of thousands of Model Y's, which are already taking over the world, we are all good.

Yea, I just posted essentially the same thing before I saw your post.

I will add that I don't think Tesla would be opening orders for the Semi if they were not confident they would have enough batteries for Cybertruck and Model Y.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is this the most moronic FUD headline yet? Vroom vroom.....I'm gonna steal your EV!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Let the underperformance commence!

Wouldn't be surprised if TSLA only matches the Nasdaq/QQQ

 

[Mengy]

I think most people here know this, but it's worth repeating.

Open orders for Semi is a huge, huge buy signal.

It's certainly a good positive, but I'm not sure it's going to move the needle much for 2022. Tesla is likely only starting Semi production in low volume, so I don't think Semi sales will contribute much to earnings until they enter high volume production sometime next year when they have the battery capacity to do so.

Of course, if they start making a couple hundred Semi's per week very soon then sure, that would be HUGELY bullish. My gut tells me it will be more like a dozen or so per week for the remainder of this year. They simply need to ramp 4680 production first.

 

[mongo]

Manufacturing efficiency wise, Tesla would probably rather work with 4680 packs than 2170. However, Semis can and have been built with previous generation cells (as shown by the existing prototypes). With vehicle production limited by chips and Tesla currently having a cell surplus (per earnings call), building Semis leverages the current chip to kWh supply imbalance.
If the standard inverter module is used for the four motors, one semi equals 2 AWD cars worth of power chips (dual display MCU and single FSD?) and 7-10 times the cells for a 4x cell/chip utilization ratio.
Also helps work out the kinks in the rest of the manufacturing process.