Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

I would think the BYD LFP battery supply news should give both BYD and Tesla stock a decent boost tomorrow.

 

[Singuy]

The key to CarPlay is that it is a million times better than what comes built in with any car that supports it, and it closes the gap between those cars and Tesla in terms of software. For very little additional work the automaker gets media, navigation, texting using voice, calls, siri, and more.

I like Tesla's software a lot, and for other automakers, it seems like a no-brainer to support CarPlay and have a good experience for customers rather than a terrible one. I don't think it is wise for people here to discount how Apple can help others reach parity with Tesla (FSD being a notable exception).

Carplay is no where CLOSE to TeslaOS. Yes, the navigation is better than legacy auto's but I don't think it's better than Tesla's, and it brings a few apps people love (which you can still Bluetooth to using your iphone in a Tesla). However TeslaOS provides you with sentry mode, battery preconditioning, HP boost, summon, geo-locate, speed limit via remote and freaken full control of the entire drivetrain for self driving. I just heard an update coming soon that will close your windows if it rains outside. I don't even know what you guys are smoking. Carplay 2.0 shows the speedometer plus the ability to change some climate options and everyone is freaking out!? CarPlay 2.0 cannot even remotely turn on your car's Hvac because it physically needs the phone to process anything! Most modern cars now has the ability to connect to your car via the net to do these things but not your Carplay...

 

[JustSaying]

Canceled Apple Music and got Spotify. Tesla already have maps.

Alexa "Auto mode" on my iphone via blue tooth works great with my iphone apps and Tesla audio (all by voice command.)

 

[Discoducky]

The conclusion appears to be based on combining two different claims.

A VP at BYD said "we will soon supply batteries to him" (Elon) with 0 specifics or numbers or details whatsoever.

Then the story goes on to mention 3 different rumors from the last year or so-- one of which was a 10 gwh order for LFP batteries... (the other 2 were about other rumored BYD orders including one claim they were ordering blades for THIS current quarter (Q2) production)

So are these 18650, 2170 or something else?

 

[30seconds]

I think it depends largely on how bought into Apple’s ecosystem you are.

The big missing feature I know of is continuity. Having a podcast playing on your phone and having it continue from where you left off and be accessible from the console. Having your current playlist switch to your car

Personally I’m kind of meh on the whole thing, but I’ve never owned a car with CarPlay. But I do see some appeal to the idea. It is a little nicer than using Bluetooth to share your audio.

I literally do this 3-4 days a week. Have a podcast playing in my Airpods, which automatically switches to my Tesla when I get in and then back to my AirPods when I get out.

Same if I’m on a phone call or using the zoom app for a meeting

 

[Ohmster]

I literally do this 3-4 days a week. Have a podcast playing in my Airpods, which automatically switches to my Tesla when I get in and then back to my AirPods when I get out.

Same if I’m on a phone call or using the zoom app for a meeting

Yup. Attend Teams meetings using car speakers and mic during 40 minute commute to or from work. Put on Airpods after parking/exiting and call transfers to them uninterrupted. Every work day.

 

[petit_bateau]

I have reached a very different conclusion for many reasons that I'll leave for the full thesis.

Solar PV panels are already quite carbon negative on a cradle-to-grave lifecycle basis, so in the first place I don't see any point in zooming in on certain components of the overall emissions and insisting on making them carbon neutral. China will also eventually be making solar panels with solar power, so making them with coal is a transient phenomenon. Coal can't compete long term. They will close those coal plants.

Berkeley National Laboratory (USA) estimates that these days solar PV has an average energy payback period of 0.5 to 2 years, meaning that about 6-24 months worth of its energy collection is used across the lifecycle for fabrication + transportation + construction + maintenance + deconstruction + recycling. If a panel nominally rated for 100W produces a daily average of 0.5kWh, then across a year that’s 0.5 * 365 = ~180kWh, and across an estimated 25-year panel life it's 180 kWh * 25 = 4.5 MWh. With current retail electricity costs in China of approximately $0.084/kWh on average (source), the embedded energy cost is at most around $0.084/kWh * 180 kWh/year * 1 year typical energy payback / 100W nominal = ~$0.15/W embedded energy cost, approximately 15% of the entire current $1/W cost of solar. Even if going carbon neutral doubles this energy cost to 30%, that's still only a 15% increase, equivalent to a single year of overall solar PV cost decline.

Let's look at it another way. I see various estimates that solar has embedded CO2 equivalent of roughly 1 ton CO2e/MWh. Carbon offset credits cost on the order of $10/ton. With unsubsidized all-in solar costs today of about $30/MWh in Western nations with favorable insolation (like USA, Australia & NZ), carbon offsets would drive up cost by 25% to $40/MWh. Again, only for now because eventually solar energy will be used to make more solar energy and all the logistics and construction and all that will be going renewable too, dropping the CO2e/MWh to vastly less than it is today.

I am willing to bet that whatever carbon capture and storage you have worked on was not a plant designed to exploit the low low solar costs I'm expecting, so that analogy would not apply because the technology and industrial engineering would be very different. No such plants currently exist and few are even proposing them today, because few expect solar costs to keep falling 10%+ annually or have done the math on the ramifications of that trend for CO2 capture, H20 electrolysis, and Sabatier methane production.

First thing, levelised cost (LCOE) and lifecycle energy payback are two very different things.

In my opinion a significant factor in the low levelised costs we are observing are because most solar is made with energy prices that are set by cheap but polluting coal in China. The actual electricity running the plants may well be hydro or solar or wind, but the price is dictated by the coal. That coal-derived energy in turn permeates the entire supply chain, from food prices to copper smelting to polysilicon, transport, everything. Those Chinese plants have also benefitted very significantly from low interest loans or equivalent, and it is only in more recent years (with the 2016 Yingli bankrptcy being a good milestone, it is not a happenstance that the CAGR trend changes abruptly at that time) that they have started to shift to a more sustainable financial model. If those solar manufacturers had to run on Western costs, Western returns, and non-coal-derived inputs then my hypothesis is that we would see solar pricing (as measured by LCOE) drop to c.1% CAGR decline, go flat, or even climb. If the EU were to introduce a full CBAM tomorrow and the US to follow, then that would begin to address these factors, or at least the carbon-offshoring part of it. The anti-dumping (unequal commercial markets) aspects are trickier to get at, especially as Biden just paused the anti-dumping action yesterday for at least two years. Whilst I am commenting, then yes I will also fully support the point that continual improvements in products & processes have also been going on: todays solar is not my father's solar.

Lifecycle energy payback is a different thing. I've really said nothing about lifecycle energy.

I would like nothing better than for these solar LCOE prices to keep falling at the 8% CAGR rates you expect going forwards rather than the 1% rates I expect. It will be very easy to see which way this goes, we just need to keep on watching the Lazards utility scale unsubsidised solar LCOE for the next 5-years and we will find out. The 2021 range is $30-$41 /MWh with a mean of c.$35.5, so let us watch and we will see.

Regarding carbon capture I've operated (& managed, & designed, & done the economics for) amine plants that did CO2 capture (albeit in very unusual but informative circumstances). I've also operated large mole sieves (hydrocarbon drying) but they don't seem to be a front-runner for CO2 capture, not surprisingly. I've also done gas injection of hydrocarbon so although that is not CO2 I've seen all the stages of one of the more likely paths for CCS. I am deeply sceptical regarding almost every CCS proposal I have seen, with most of them simply being scanty excuses to carry on pumping fossil pollutants. But I'm always happy to look at the next one with an open mind.

My underlying point is that if something looks too good to be true, then normally there are other factors we should examine to reach a better understanding of what is really going on.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is buying 10 GWh of LFP from BYD.
That works out to 150k cars @ 67 kWh or 133k @ 75kWh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1534353825783586823

Yeah, BYD LFP is a BFD. They were quoted in the tweet: (image below)

"Earlier this year, there were further rumors on Chinese social media that Tesla had officially placed an order with BYD's battery manufacturing unit FinDreams Battery for blade batteries for 204,000 units per year."​

This is roughly the same number of additional Models 3 we would expect annually from the Giga Shanghai Phase 1 (Model 3) expansion plan. So this BYD contract could just be the provisioning of battery packs for that production growth. Significantly, that expansion brings Tesla China to over 1.0M units per year run rate, as soon as Q3 this year.

N.B. 204k bty packs per year is enough for about 4,200 Models 3 per week (less holidays). That's quite close to what we'd expect as the run rate for a new Model 3 line at Giga Shanghai.

Cheers!

 

[Chenkers]

So are these 18650, 2170 or something else?

The BYD Blade cells are a large format prismatic cell that BYD have turned into a semi-structural member. They are effectively a thin but deep prismatic cell with the length of the cell extending across the pack to allow it's stronger casing to act as a partial structural member/beam.

Jordan at the Limiting Factor did a deep dive on the BYD Blade cell and generally had good things to say about them:

They would likely be supplied as a structural cell to pack assembly similar to the way CATL supplies Tesla China with it's LFP packs. So these should be an alternative battery supply source for SR+ LFP M3 and MY.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Market is setting up for summer rally after mid-July, says SVB's Shannon Saccocia | CNBC TV (11 hrs ago)

 

[MC3OZ]

In my opinion a significant factor in the low levelised costs we are observing are because most solar is made with energy prices that are set by cheap but polluting coal in China

How do we know the components of energy prices in China?

What I do know is China have developed world leading UHVDC transmission technology to move wind and solar energy long distances from the remote north west to the south east where it will be used.

If coal was cheaper, sure it would be cheaper to just keep burning coal in the south east?

And I don't think this project was part of any push to zero emissions when it started, it seems like a long running highly ambitious project.

What China is doing with EVs is aimed partially at reducing oil imports.

I think China has a similar target on coal and gas imports, they want to be energy self-sufficient.

We don't know if China is prepared to pay a premium for energy self sufficiency.

In Australia I think our big opportunity for energy intensive refining and processing is in the Northern Territory and North West Western Australian, where renewable energy resources are very good all year round, and where mines and ports are not far away.

If I compare what I think we can do to what China is doing. We don't need to move the electricity anywhere, just generate it and consume it close to the mine, there is plenty of land.

 

[petit_bateau]

How do we know the components of energy prices in China?

What I do know is China have developed world leading UHVDC transmission technology to move wind and solar energy long distances from the remote north west to the south east where it will be used.

If coal was cheaper, sure it would be cheaper to just keep burning coal in the south east?

And I don't think this project was part of any push to zero emissions when it started, it seems like a long running highly ambitious project.

What China is doing with EVs is aimed partially at reducing oil imports.

I think China has a similar target on coal and gas imports, they want to be energy self-sufficient.

We don't know if China is prepared to pay a premium for energy self sufficiency.

In Australia I think our big opportunity for energy intensive refining and processing is in the Northern Territory and North West Western Australian, where renewable energy resources are very good all year round, and where mines and ports are not far away.

If I compare what I think we can do to what China is doing. We don't need to move the electricity anywhere, just generate it and consume it close to the mine, there is plenty of land.

Please excuse me if I don't give you my client list, but I (my company) has supplied some of the exotic stuff you have listed in your post. We can argue the toss about whether it was developed in China, this stuff is a global team effort (aka "co-opetition"). I have been very fortunate to work in oil & gas, renewables, and grid, in lots of interesting ways and interesting places throughout my career. Quite frequently I know both personally (through direct experience) and theoretically (through study & research) about the comments I make. And where I don't know directly, I know colleagues who generally do.

 

[SmokyPeat]

How do we know the components of energy prices in China?

What I do know is China have developed world leading UHVDC transmission technology to move wind and solar energy long distances from the remote north west to the south east where it will be used.

If coal was cheaper, sure it would be cheaper to just keep burning coal in the south east?

And I don't think this project was part of any push to zero emissions when it started, it seems like a long running highly ambitious project.

What China is doing with EVs is aimed partially at reducing oil imports.

I think China has a similar target on coal and gas imports, they want to be energy self-sufficient.

We don't know if China is prepared to pay a premium for energy self sufficiency.

In Australia I think our big opportunity for energy intensive refining and processing is in the Northern Territory and North West Western Australian, where renewable energy resources are very good all year round, and where mines and ports are not far away.

If I compare what I think we can do to what China is doing. We don't need to move the electricity anywhere, just generate it and consume it close to the mine, there is plenty of land.

Massive Chinese hydropower projects are another major contributor to the UHVDC transmission lines. HVDC/UHVDC is also extremely well suited to offshore wind projects since the transmission losses are so much lower underground/underwater than traditional HVAC lines.

 

[bruce4000]

Ladies and gentlemen, the dumbest government in the western world:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1534211109737095169

When shutting down your remaining nuclear plants and instead funding Putin or restarting coal plants just wasn’t going far enough…

I’m not an expert on EU but I don’t see that it follows that just because an element is declared toxic means it can’t be mined and used. Lead has been known to be toxic for a long time. So it’s banned in paint as it’s a child’s chewing hazard among other things, but is used in most car starter batteries as it’s well contained and gets recycled.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla related, we want more Superchargers and combining Megapack with Superchargers seems like a winner, getting over some of the hardest aspects in UK and other countries - getting the power connected! Then this feeds into economics of Supercharger network via peak power fees.

I don't think much of the Audi lounge concept as it's described by Autocar, below - bookable 45 minutes charging slots in urban areas with lounge for Audi drivers.

However, some interesting points

1. 200 kw low voltage connection only as using batteries as buffer - 600 amps at 240 volt 3-phase or more likely I'd guess just over 300 amps at 400 volts 3-phase
2. low power connection means easy to get planning permission and implement
3. batteries are old Audi ones, so haven't got many. 26 e-tron/MEB-based Q4 e-tron test vehicles - so around 2500kwh usable now?
4. 320 kW chargers - 6 on first site (only 4 for new Zurich one!) - queue theory anyone? Tesla lessons?
5. 200 sq metre /2152.78 sq feet lounge
   1. toilets
   2. vending machines
   3. bookable meeting room
   4. terrace
   5. "premium experience"
   6. Audi only for lounge, anyone can use chargers
6. Statement from Audi that lack of public charging is biggest reason to not go EV (especially if no charging at home)
7. Average of 24 cars/day since December 2021, 54 on busiest day, max daily capacity 80

Source for amps:- Kilowatts (kW) to Amps Electrical Conversion Calculator

Audi rolls out luxury EV charging hubs across Europe | Autocar

Successful pilot project in Nuremberg has charged more than 3600 cars since opening in December

www.autocar.co.uk

Edit: I don't use superchargers much, but it's more important to me to have lots of them, rather than max power. If you get somewhere and can plug in, take a break (toilet/drink/food/stretch legs) and even with V2, they're fine. Just having a handful is not very good. Booking them is a crutch, is there a penalty for booking but not using while others are waiting? Ability to jump in to missing booking sessions? Might work better in Germany than some other more free-wheeling countries

 

[Usain]

So what is it that CarPay can do that my Tesla cannot?

Waze

 

[mongo]

I’m not an expert on EU but I don’t see that it follows that just because an element is declared toxic means it can’t be mined and used. Lead has been known to be toxic for a long time. So it’s banned in paint as it’s a child’s chewing hazard among other things, but is used in most car starter batteries as it’s well contained and gets recycled.

This has been looked at since at least 2020. Major issue is that if Lithium (as -chloride,-hydroxide, or -carbonate) is declare as a Class 1A risk to reproductive health/ fetal development then it increases the controls needed for handling, transport, and processing; potentially beyond what is financially viable for an industry operating at mining volumes.

Spoiler: tangental stuff about RoHS in general as applies to lead

RoHS (restriction on hazardous substanced) covers a lot of this, but exempts batteries which are under other legislation. Those are handled by the Battery Directive (note: EV packs are classified as industrial batteries, not automotive).
They recently introduced updates to focus on clean procurement of Lithium and increased recycling and traceability.
RoHS:
RoHS Directive
Older FAQ on Batteries Directive
https://www.epbaeurope.net/assets/European-Commissions-guidance-document.pdf
Updates:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2022-0077_EN.pdf

Only one mine in Europe and much opposition to more:
The EU needs lithium to help wean it off oil. But is there enough?

 

[Usain]

Alexa "Auto mode" on my iphone via blue tooth works great with my iphone apps and Tesla audio (all by voice command.)

I use Android Auto in the Bolt. I can say, "Tell me a joke" and it will tell me a corny joke. (My wife hates it.) I can say, "What is the Braves score?", and it will tell me the Braves score. Etc.

In the Tesla, I have to say, "Google search for ...". Then I have to look at the screen. And it's quite slow.

And as I mentioned, I do miss Waze in my Tesla.

Tesla's overall experience is far superior, but there are a few things that Android Auto or CarPlay can do better at present.

 

[The Accountant]

China May deliveries (Export and Local) will be reported by the CPCA tomorrow (4pm Beijing time).
That's 4am East Coast US and 1am West Costs. For Western Europe 9am-10am tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1534450146750382080

 

[The Accountant]

One of my favorite posts on Twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491790630032326668