Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dig deeper]

Woah, the entire market just crapped itself HARD in pre-market, what happened?

CPI print. Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M05 Results

 

[JRP3]

Tesla cancels hiring events in China

Tesla cancels three June online hiring events for China

Production at Tesla's Shanghai plant was badly hit after the Chinese commercial hub began a two-month Covid-19 lockdown late in March.

www.cnbc.com

 

[The Accountant]

People see what they want to see to fit the narrative they want to speak.

Here is what I see:

6.5% March Core CPI
6.2% April Core CPI
6.0% May Core CPI

I have not heard any of the fear mongers on TV commenting that Core CPI may have peaked.
It's all doom and gloom this morning.

 

[Artful Dodger]

United States Inflation Rate - May 2022 Data - 1914-2021 Historical - June Forecast

United States Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in the United States decreased to 3.30 percent in May from 3.40 percent in April of 2024. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

EDIT: Core Inflation has peaked, now back to Jan'22 levels h/t @The Accountant

 

[growler23]

It was found there were some negative side effects from residual solvent the wet electrode process. The binder used in dry electrodes also has positive benefits.
Elimination of the solvent does offer the opportunity for improvements; however, as Tesla stated on the Q1 earnings call, they derisked the structural pack and 4680 design and those will be improved over this year (to as good as the best alternative packs) and into the future.
Note: slide has the commercialization band extending through to 2025, so current progress (mass production ramp in 2022) is as expected or better.

I think a lot of folks my not remember that the Battery Day timeline to realize all the 4680 related improvements was 5 years. We don't get them all this quick. Tesla is being deliberate - which IMHO is wise. Engineering missteps cost a LOT when you are shipping at a 2 million car/year rate. And cutting costs and increasing volume is EXACTLY what needs to be done this year to get my favorite army of Model Y's in front of more customers.

Also, I would like to know what folks are smoking if they think 178 lbs is not a significant improvement in vehicle weight. From what I have read, engineering teams pore over parts and materials lists exhaustively to save a few ounces or the occasional pound here or there, in cars where mileage is considered to matter (most of 'em these days). 178 lbs lighter means your first passenger is "free", for goodness sake (rough estimate; Your Passenger May Vary ). That is a Deal. Possibly a Big Deal. As an engineer, wouldn't you be thrilled with "it saves me weight AND money? I thought I had to trade those two off against each other..."

What I want to hear is: do we know that these are truly made from a dry electrode process? If so, didn't we just knock the "too much energy spent on batteries" argument back on its heels?

 

[larmor]

EU to ban new gas car sales by 2035

Goodbye gasoline cars? EU lawmakers vote to ban new sales from 2035

It takes the EU a step closer to its goal of cutting emissions from new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles by 100% in 2035.

www.cnbc.com

 

[The Accountant]

United States Inflation Rate - May 2022 Data - 1914-2021 Historical - June Forecast

United States Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in the United States decreased to 3.30 percent in May from 3.40 percent in April of 2024. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

The trend is your friend:
If you select Core Inflation on this site you get this graph:

Looks like it's peaked to me. Target stores are cutting prices as inventory is building . . .demand in waning in certain sectors.

 

[henchman24]

People see what they want to see to fit the narrative they want to speak.

Here is what I see:

6.5% March Core CPI
6.2% April Core CPI
6.0% May Core CPI

I have not heard any of the fear mongers on TV commenting that Core CPI may have peaked.
It's all doom and gloom this morning.

Overall CPI will get the headlines, but this is more of what the Fed is focused on. The meeting next week will have statements around being too high still, but they are seeing what they are doing as working.

 

[Mengy]

People see what they want to see to fit the narrative they want to speak.

Here is what I see:

6.5% March Core CPI
6.2% April Core CPI
6.0% May Core CPI

I have not heard any of the fear mongers on TV commenting that Core CPI may have peaked.
It's all doom and gloom this morning.

That's still higher than the expected Core CPI of 5.9%. And 8.6% being the highest CPI increase since 1981 isn't helping either.

No way to spin it, this was a bad CPI report. More importantly it was worse than expected, and we all know how the market hates surprises. I agree with you the trend is promising, but the market will likely react badly in the now.

 

[ZachF]

Tesla cancels hiring events in China

Tesla cancels three June online hiring events for China

Production at Tesla's Shanghai plant was badly hit after the Chinese commercial hub began a two-month Covid-19 lockdown late in March.

www.cnbc.com

China seems to want to commit national suicide over COVID zero.

 

[The Accountant]

That's still higher than the expected Core CPI of 5.9%. And 8.6% being the highest CPI increase since 1981 isn't helping either.

No way to spin it, this was a bad CPI report. More importantly it was worse than expected, and we all know how the market hates surprises.

Don't agree. It was a good report. Just because forecasters can't forecast does not mean a drop from 6.2% to 6.0% is bad.
CPI is distorted with Gas prices.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

25-year-old hotel valet returned my Model 3 when we checked out yesterday morning.

She said “This car makes me feel old”.

Lol. My 82 year old dad asked me last night how he's so supposed to play his cassettes and CDs in his new Model Y. I said you can't but you could probably sell the car for five to ten more thousand than he paid for it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

At least it's now obvious this is a Putin/OPEC/Wall Street/oil traders/frackers "inflation" situation.

These guys have created an environment where oil pricing cannot be moved down, regardless of what the market says. Producers sit on one hand because it's not in their interest to ramp production.

Personally I think they're terrified of what happens after this run breaks, and more importantly how long it lasts. Every day they push it further, the dip on the other side gets longer.

 

[mongo]

What I want to hear is: do we know that these are truly made from a dry electrode process? If so, didn't we just knock the "too much energy spent on batteries" argument back on its heels?

Yes, dry. No ovens, no solvent recovery, cells were delayed due to calendering roller denting.
Not sure what the argument is (over vehicle life, cells are better than gas), but a lot of the complaint is regarding mining, not drying (solvent is captured and reused).
How much CO2 is emitted by manufacturing batteries?

 

[willow_hiller]

Probably worth continuing this discussion in the Investor Engineering thread if anyone wants to, but I thought I would go ahead and crunch the numbers on the pack size given Spoken Review's road trip (since we couldn't reach a conclusion about the Model Y AWD pack size due to possible Supercharging losses). Long story short, with the exception of the first few points in the video where the mileage is rather low, most estimates of full pack size given the points where he stopped to film the trip meter point to a ~65 kWh usable battery pack. Here's all my math:

1. 182 miles at 65%
2. 3 miles at 336 Wh/mi down to 63% (1,008 Wh is 2% = 50,400 Wh total pack)
3. Reset trip A at 63%
4. 31 miles at 226 Wh/mi down to 141 miles (50%). (7,006 Wh is 13% = 53,892 Wh total pack)
5. 49 miles at 274 Wh/mi down to 42% (13,426 Wh is 21% = 63,933 Wh total pack)
6. 65 miles at 287 Wh/mi down to 96 miles (34%). (18,655 Wh is 29% = 64,327 Wh total pack)
7. 118 miles at 290 Wh/mi down to 10%. (34,220 Wh is 53% = 64,566 Wh total pack)
8. Supercharge up to 97% (but didn't reset trip meter)
9. 35 miles at 320 Wh/mi down to 80% (11,200 Wh is 17% = 65,882 Wh total pack)
10. 84 miles at 297 Wh/mi down to 59% (24,948 Wh is 38% = 65,652 Wh total pack)

 

[ZachF]

The trend is your friend:
If you select Core Inflation on this site you get this graph:

View attachment 814939

Looks like it's peaked to me. Target stores are cutting prices as inventory is building . . .demand in waning in certain sectors.

It’s probably in the process of peaking here, but other areas it isn’t… the ECB is so far behind the curve I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation soars well into the double digits there.

Part of the thing that is likely going to reduce inflation though is recession…

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yet another easy week for Ken Griffin and the MM machine to make a few dozen million on TSLA options.

Next week should be VERY interesting. Triple witching has calls spread all over the board. Bears and bulls will be battling for sure.

 

[AMN]

Picked up our new Plaid beast last night. They were busy!

Best Tesla to-date for sure. Like the new screen too.

Cheers to Q2!

 

[henchman24]

It’s probably in the process of peaking here, but other areas it isn’t… the ECB is so far behind the curve I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation soars well into the double digits there.

Part of the thing that is likely going to reduce inflation though is recession…

One thing that I think could be incredibly damaging to the economy that isn't being talked about at all right now is deflation. We are running so hot right now that the bottom could fall out of inflation when a recession happens. Deflation in a recession would hurt the economy tremendously.

 

[bkp_duke]

If most cars are Teslas anyways, the frankenport cars can use an adapter instead. I dont want to have to use two hands to dork around with a CCS1 connector. Teslas plug should be the default.

Exactly. Tesla built a small, elegant, high-powered charging cable and connector. CCS is just a fat ugly step-child by comparison.