Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539231150685638656

 

[bkp_duke]

That seems a little pessimistic, with the upcoming revolution in genetics, I was rather expecting a late 20's adult who looks after themselves to be looking at a healthy life span well in excess of 100. Heck, I'm 54 now and will be furious if I only get to mid eighties!

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

 

[The Accountant]

Gary Black on Twitter: "Key takeaways from @elonmusk interview with Bloomberg at Qatar Economic Forum. $tsla" / Twitter

Just to clarify that last point. The Super PAC being considered by Elon would be to support Centrist candidates from all parties.

 

[mongo]

I am grateful for interviews with Musk but I wish the interviewers would do some homework. Musk has said a million times that they are supply constrained.
I wish someone would ask him what are they doing specifically to increase production and when he expects the new factory’s to be producing half a million vehicles each and when he expects mass production of the cybertruck and semi.

Even those questions have been addressed recently:

Production needs raw materials.
Cybertruck and semi come after Y ramp, production in 2023,
Exponentials hard to predict due to slope, small time shift can be huge volume shift.
Ramp to 5k/wk 250k/yr takes 12 months from production start.
New factory ramps should go faster though. So 500k/yr in 2024?

Q2 2021:Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Yeah. It's worth telling like if you have a target of a certain number, that doesn't mean it happens like as sure as night follows day. It's a target. So if there is some calamity in the world that interrupts the supply chain, then it will be less.


But the contracts that we have with cell suppliers call for roughly a doubling of cell supply to Tesla in 2022. And we have to juggle these exponential -- it's a whole bunch of exponential graphs sort of overlaying on top of each other. And small changes in where you are on the x-axis of time can quite substantially change the area under the curve. So what we're thinking of doing depending on -- is basically overshooting on cell supply for vehicles, and then as we have say excess cell supply in one month or another, then routing that so outputs to the Megapack and Powerwall.

Q4 2021 call (which was in Jan 2022) Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.



We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

Q1 2022 call https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tesla-q1-earnings-call-2022-transcript

So let’s see. Obviously we … Yeah, production as people know with Giga Berlin and Giga Texas in the past few months. So we’ve two fantastic factories with great teams. And they are ramping rapidly. With new factories, the initial ramp always looks small, but it grows exponentially. But I have very high confidence in the teams in both factories. And we expect to ramp those initially slowly, but like I said, growing exponentially with them achieving high volume by the end of this year.

And then Model 3, it’s important for new factories to be focused, and have the least amount of complexity and variation. Which is why Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are focused on the Model Y. From the point in which you have a factory complete and you’re making a small number of units to the point where it’s producing high quality vehicles in volume is sort of nine to 12 months from start of production. So now hopefully we’re getting better at that ramp. So maybe it’s a little less. But to get to sort of the 5,000 a week level has typically taken us around 12 months from start of production. Yeah.

Ramp production are faster than Shanghai because we have learned a lot and we have basically veteran teams that have seen the 3/Y ramp, the Y ramp especially, in multiple locations and we’re obviously sharing what we’ve learned. And so we don’t want to get complacent or entitled, but this should be a faster ramp because we have learned more and we have done a lot to simplify the production process of Model Y. That should lead us to a faster ramp in Texas and Berlin.

 

[Favguy]

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

That's a shame, from a personal stand point anyway. You're probably right about society in general stagnating. 110 would be nice if you could get close to it without decrepitude or altziemers.

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

 

[Nocturnal]

By the time Tesla hit 10 million/yr production, everyone will have ridden in a Tesla at least once. Everyone.
And, everyone will know a friend, neighbor, co-worker or relative who has one. Everyone.

Most people aren't rational when it comes to buying a car, or at least not entirely rational.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

122 years and 164 days is the longest lifespan so far. (Unless you believe the bible, of course.) That's without any genetic engineering.

 

[JustMe]

The stock market is about to open, if anyone is interested…

 

[AudubonB]

@The Accountant’s SuperPac post allowed to stay; ALL other political posts I found are now gone.

Any tie to Tesla and geriatrics has also depleted its stock of failsafes. No more.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Elon on the Bloomberg forecast that VW is gonna be bigger than Tesla in two years. This is funny:

tl;dw: no.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539167284127842305

 

[2daMoon]

The stock market is about to open, if anyone is interested…

What is it?

Is it more fun than reading the TMC Investor Forum?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539213399787184128

I have no clue as to how reliable this source is. If it is true, then Tesla is on pace for 80k+ June.

Right now the pace is for 72,650 for June but you have to remember Shanghai is actively ramping. So the delivery pace should pick up in the last two weeks of the month because delivery pace is probably 2 weeks behind production pace.

 

[Nocturnal]

Really nice to see us do better than typical beta on an up day.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Really nice to see us do better than typical beta on an up day.

Very nice to see. Been waiting on a day like for what seems like forever now. Hopefully it's sustained throughout the day on good volume

 

[ZachF]

Elon on the Bloomberg forecast that VW is gonna be bigger than Tesla in two years. This is funny:

tl;dw: no.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539167284127842305

As I’ve said before, they’ve been saying “VW is gonna be bigger than Tesla two years from now” for over a decade…

 

[nativewolf]

Yeah, you’re going to have to back that up with some real data, that doesn’t exist.

literally among the first things we were taught on getting in country training in S Asia over 30 years ago, still true today. Go look it up yourself, you will learn something..the horror.

 

[Christine69420]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539213399787184128

I have no clue as to how reliable this source is. If it is true, then Tesla is on pace for 80k+ June.

Right now the pace is for 72,650 for June but you have to remember Shanghai is actively ramping. So the delivery pace should pick up in the last two weeks of the month because delivery pace is probably 2 weeks behind production pace.

So some of these are probably cars made but not delivered during the recent Covid shutdowns in Shanghai?

Since it says delivered - not produced.

 

[KMCC]

YOUR MODERATOR’S LITTLE EXPERIMENT

…in learning and exposing to all what would happen were “free speech” to be allowed to operate in this thread -
* only for a little while
* amongst only this relatively select group; a group in which effectively all participants already share a deep respect for Mr Musk and a very strong, self-interested desire for Tesla to succeed.

The result, clear to all, is chaos and vitriol. Very disheartening but absolutely expected.

I rest my case regarding Twitter and free speech. Thank you all for your input. You may collect your bag of M&Ms at the exit door.

I learned something valuable over the long weekend on TMC.

I learned how smart people argue.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not happening. Around 110-120 is the theoretical maximum on human life. We have literally thousands of genetic "failsafes" that prevent us from living beyond that age. As my genetics professor once said, "We are all literally designed to die, in many many different ways." And frankly, given how stubborn some people have shown themselves to be, I'm in complete agreement with Elon: people should not live "forever", it stifles new ideas and innovation that come when each subsequent generation challenges the thinking of those that preceded them.

Favorite Movie Scene ever from The Dark Crystals. Reminds me of Congress today, trying to live forever!

 

[Snerruc]

Most people aren't rational when it comes to buying a car, or at least not entirely rational.

I agree. When I have bought cars on a rational basis, I haven’t kept them long. The longest I’ve kept a car is 21 years. It was a Fiat 124 spyder. There is nothing rational about buying that car! Also bought a Tesla while living on a island two days by barge from service. Is that rational? People around me don’t watch news, read papers, Watch CNBC. Right now they are asking me if I give the finger driving bye gas stations. They all get I spend tens of dollars a month while they spend hundreds on fuel. What Elon says on the media is a nothing burger. Most of them will be buying a Tesla when they trade. The hit to the pocket book speaks loudly.