Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

This TFLEV video clearly explains why Tesla will never need paid advertisement. Teslas simply sell themselves.

Son to father: "Here is the deal. When I had the concept for this video (taking Ford F150 EV Lightning to the drag strip) I thought we'd be racing mustangs and camaros, but now that it's 2022..."
Father: "We're going to be racing jaguars?"
Son: "No. Tesla. (pointing to front.) Tesla next to us. Tesla behind us. All of that there is here it's like Tesla and then a few of the old school racers."

I compiled a chart showing all the races shown in the video with 1/2 mile duration times and top speed. It must be totally demoralizing for owners of ICE muscle cars being absolutely throttled and overrun by EVs on their home turf. This is happening everywhere. Tesla has shown the way. Even Ford in their first attempt with the F150 EV Lightning pickup is beating out Corvette, Charger, Jaquar, Viper, Mercedes and Mustang times on the local 1/4 mile drag strip. Clearly ICE is now dead.

View attachment 819634

This must confuse folks... the quietest cars are fastest? Kids will understand right away. They have RC cars and trucks. Who uses RC fuel anymore? So I looked up what's on the market today.

Here, only 3 of 11 top RC toys are nitro fuel, the rest BEV. That's 73% market share (offering anyway) as Battery only. When you look it up, it's surprisingly similar - they talk about charging speeds, maintenance etc. You'd swear it was about BEV vs ICE.

I do think electric racing should sound like a high-speed electric motor, like a nice HF whine. Spectators could wear a wireless hat and feel their acceleration voltage in real-time! Or maybe it's something in their pedal shoe, lol. (The App is free, but racing haptics data connection $$$.)

 

[The Accountant]

Fremont is Killing It
This is 7am West Coast Time

See video here:
Fremont Video June 22

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Fremont is Killing It
This is 7am West Coast Time
View attachment 819654

See video here:
Fremont Video June 22

Anyone else feel like they were on a extremely bumpy amusement park ride while watching this?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fremont is Killing It
This is 7am West Coast Time
View attachment 819654

See video here:
Fremont Video June 22

I don't think it's at all out of the realm of possibility that Fremont production for Q2 actually hit max capacity. So 150k for the quarter.

If S/X can get back to 25k fully production in Q2......oh man think of the margins/profits on those...,...especially since some of them will be with higher pricing that the S/X went through a couple quarters back

 

[Singuy]

I don't think it's at all out of the realm of possibility that Fremont production for Q2 actually hit max capacity. So 150k for the quarter.

If S/X can get back to 25k fully production in Q2......oh man think of the margins/profits on those.

Believe it makes very little difference when S/X accounts for 10% of the revenue or less. So overall margins may go up by a neglectable amount.

 

[Singuy]

So Elon according to the Silicon valley interview said Berlin and Texas are burning billions currently. How are these losses accounted for in your forecast @The Accountant ?

 

[Skryll]

This TFLEV video clearly explains why Tesla will never need paid advertisement. Teslas simply sell themselves.

Son to father: "Here is the deal. When I had the concept for this video (taking Ford F150 EV Lightning to the drag strip) I thought we'd be racing mustangs and camaros, but now that it's 2022..."
Father: "We're going to be racing jaguars?"
Son: "No. Tesla. (pointing to front.) Tesla next to us. Tesla behind us. All of that there is here it's like Tesla and then a few of the old school racers."

I compiled a chart showing all the races shown in the video with 1/2 mile duration times and top speed. It must be totally demoralizing for owners of ICE muscle cars being absolutely throttled and overrun by EVs on their home turf. This is happening everywhere. Tesla has shown the way. Even Ford in their first attempt with the F150 EV Lightning pickup is beating out Corvette, Charger, Jaquar, Viper, Mercedes and Mustang times on the local 1/4 mile drag strip. Clearly ICE is now dead.

View attachment 819639

Actually quite amazing for Ford to have similar duration run for their truck like a nimble small performance model 3

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Believe it makes very little difference when S/X accounts for 10% of the revenue or less. So overall margins may go up by a neglectable amount.

That's not true at all. Each S/X sold is the equivalent of 2-2.5X the revenue of a 3/Y sold, but their profits will be 3-3.5X that of each 3/Y sold.

So Tesla selling 10,000 more S/X in a quarter is the equivalent of 20,000-25,0000 more 3/Y and 3X the profit. That's definitely not neglectable. Especially in a quarter where Tesla is missing a big amount of production from Shanghai.

Further, the S/X lines have not been generating peak operating margin because they've essentially only been running 50-60% of capacity for those lines. Thus there's a disproportional upside when it comes to operating margin when those production lines are back up at 100%.

 

[Ogre]

This must confuse folks... the quietest cars are fastest? Kids will understand right away. They have RC cars and trucks. Who uses RC fuel anymore? So I looked up what's on the market today.

Here, only 3 of 11 top RC toys are nitro fuel, the rest BEV. That's 73% market share (offering anyway) as Battery only. When you look it up, it's surprisingly similar - they talk about charging speeds, maintenance etc. You'd swear it was about BEV vs ICE.

I do think electric racing should sound like a high-speed electric motor, like a nice HF whine. Spectators could wear a wireless hat and feel their acceleration voltage in real-time! Or maybe it's something in their pedal shoe, lol. (The App is free, but racing haptics data connection $$$.)

I used to go to the races quite a bit. I'd be perfectly happy with races where I leave with intact eardrums intact, don't have to wear ear protection, and being able to have conversations at a level below a shout.

Whatever noise the cars make normally would be awesome. Even pedal bike races make plenty of noise at 25 MPH. A big pack of EVs flying past at 90MPH would be loud even without artificial noise.

The big problem with any EV race is endurance. It would be kind of cool if they did a relay series where racers had 2 car teams. One charging while the other races. It would make the whole pit stop dynamic completely different.

 

[Willrtsoon]

I agree. I get the impression that Tesla are very disappointed with how many price rises they have had to do with the model Y, and would love to see demand at the point where they can roll back some of those 'demand-management' raises. I'm not struggling for cash, but even I feel like Tesla are kinda gouging me a bit for a performance Y with FSD. I would not be at all surprised to see the price drop during 2023, once there is actual proper output from Texas and Germany.

If you order today you will not get the car till next year. Tesla expect supplies will costs more and act accordingly.

 

[abasile]

PLEASE do not repeat that $7.11 falsehood. Not here.

Premium unleaded has been selling for $7.09/gallon here. Not too far off!

In recent months, we've gotten plenty of comments about the fact that we don't have to pay for gas. I usually respond with a sympathetic tone and mention that the high cost of fuel affects all of us via the increased cost of goods and shipping. We really need Tesla Semi and Cybertruck to help put the nail in the coffin of ICE. So excited for what's on the horizon!

 

[unk45]

And the same can be said of the Chevy Bolt EV, Hyandai Kona EV, and several flavors of Kia EV.

pretty ,much everybody who used LG pouch except Geely brands. To be fair the Porsche problems were a poor bit of cheap third party power controller IIRC.

 

[-=buzz=-]

That's not true at all. Each S/X sold is the equivalent of 2-2.5X the revenue of a 3/Y sold, but their profits will be 3-3.5X that of each 3/Y sold.

So Tesla selling 10,000 more S/X in a quarter is the equivalent of 20,000-25,0000 more 3/Y and 3X the profit. That's definitely not neglectable. Especially in a quarter where Tesla is missing a big amount of production from Shanghai.

Further, the S/X lines have not been generating peak operating margin because they've essentially only been running 50-60% of capacity for those lines. Thus there's a disproportional upside when it comes to operating margin when those production lines are back up at 100%.

Additionally the ~25k old S/X Sold at 70k-110k (?) covered all SG&A + RnD.
Imagine 25k of the New ones selling at 100k+ while beeing cheaper to produce...

 

[elasalle]

Macro:

Elizabeth Warren to Fed chair Jerome Powell: Don't 'drive this economy off a cliff'

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell conceded that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes won't solve two of the biggest problems facing families: high prices for gas and groceries.

www.cnn.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539664642963898368

inflation due to gas/food - not addressed by rate hikes.

 

[damonbrodie]

So Elon according to the Silicon valley interview said Berlin and Texas are burning billions currently. How are these losses accounted for in your forecast @The Accountant ?

I would think most of that is part of the $7b in capital expenses that they are reporting on an annualized basis. They had a similar amount last year and are forecasting a similar amount for the next several years.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I used to go to the races quite a bit. I'd be perfectly happy with races where I leave with intact eardrums intact, don't have to wear ear protection, and being able to have conversations at a level below a shout.

Whatever noise the cars make normally would be awesome. Even pedal bike races make plenty of noise at 25 MPH. A big pack of EVs flying past at 90MPH would be loud even without artificial noise.

The big problem with any EV race is endurance. It would be kind of cool if they did a relay series where racers had 2 car teams. One charging while the other races. It would make the whole pit stop dynamic completely different.

Agree the natural sound will also be the new cool. But having a spare car kinda defeats the gamesmanship of that limping one who makes it past the finish line. We'll do better than that IMO, energy density and tabless will change this mostly. And one other thing...

Consider the vehicles may not be restricted to one pair of cables internally. Think quad charging, 4 complete packs and cooling. Charging at 4 Jacking locations (to swap the tires), but I'm just making this up so who knows. Now THAT's a contactor (for those who weren't sure about contactors). It may even have a popping sound from an instanta charge, people's hair jump a bit standing nearby. Pop! Cooling lines too. I can't wait to see it now.

 

[bkp_duke]

Third part of the TOSV interview of Elon is out:

Not much new, still saying Cybertruck to start production mid next year.

This video is chocked FULL of wonderful nuggets of info. Every investor should watch it and pay attention to every word the comes out of Elon's mouth.

 

[AudubonB]

Premium unleaded has been selling for $7.09/gallon here. Not too far off!

In recent months, we've gotten plenty of comments about the fact that we don't have to pay for gas. I usually respond with a sympathetic tone and mention that the high cost of fuel affects all of us via the increased cost of goods and shipping. We really need Tesla Semi and Cybertruck to help put the nail in the coffin of ICE. So excited for what's on the horizon!

And I paid $US7.80/gallon for diesel in remote Yukon earlier this year. BUT….gasbuddy has a very different story for the San Bernardino area: $6.00-$6.10 for premium as of yesterday. I guess it depends on where one looks. Best Gas Prices & Local Gas Stations in San Bernardino County, CA , but I’ll guarantee you that independent truckers, those hauling consumer goods, are not in the habit of going to the more expensive pumps in any given area.

 

[The Accountant]

So Elon according to the Silicon valley interview said Berlin and Texas are burning billions currently. How are these losses accounted for in your forecast @The Accountant ?

He likely meant they were burning billions in cash (not just expenses) which would include capital expenditure outlays and inventory build.
My model has the following for Berlin Austin for Q4 2021 plus Q1 2022 plus Q2 2022:

$0.8b Inventory build
$3.9b Capital Expenditures
$0.8b Pre-Production running costs (Included in R&D)

Total cash burn of about $5.5b from Oct 1 2021 to June 2022

 

[Hock1]

And I paid $US7.80/gallon for diesel in remote Yukon earlier this year. BUT….gasbuddy has a very different story for the San Bernardino area: $6.00-$6.10 for premium as of yesterday. I guess it depends on where one looks. Best Gas Prices & Local Gas Stations in San Bernardino County, CA , but I’ll guarantee you that independent truckers, those hauling consumer goods, are not in the habit of going to the more expensive pumps in any given area.

Who cares? I'm sure somewhere in the US gas is =or> $7.11 gas. It's irrelevant. Yes, gas prices have an effect on Tesla, but I'm quite sure everyone here knows what that is. The lying and obfuscation that Reuters and others do by stretching truths, cherry picking words and outright lying for a specific agenda is much more relevant to Tesla, the investing world and life on planet Earth.