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Agree about the author and appreciate the post, honestly. But, while Dan seems to be getting it, he has more confidence in the domain- the “street”s abilities / motives than I do…
Keep in mind Dan was positive on Nikola. The dude is clueless and is just positioning the firm as a pro-Tesla one. He’s not a knowledge expert like probably the top 30% on this forum.

Alex Potter is a REAL analyst whose words I put weight in.
 
I'm surprised non-GAAP EPS doesn't automatically exclude the Bitcoin charge. Traditionally, non-GAAP accounting is used specifically to ignore 'expenses' that are more of an accounting or tax oddity than a real and practical impact to earnings in order that real trends that matter won't be distorted by 'noise'. I could look it up, but I trust you are familiar with how Tesla has been treating Bitcoin with their non-GAAP accounting so can you comment on why it might be treated this way? Sorry if I've missed a previous comment on this subject.

I was surprised as well that Bitcoin is not excluded from Non-GAAP. I am open to be corrected on this but here is my understanding.

Non-GAAP EPS is not regulated. Each company decides what gets excluded or included for Non-GAAP EPS. Non-GAAP EPS is meant to provide the financial reader a better measure of the company's performance. I would have thought that with the aim of providing a better measure of performance, Tesla would exclude the Bitcoin charge from Non-GAAP but they have not done so in the past. They only arrive at Non-GAAP EPS by removing Stock Based Compensation expenses.

Some companies provide a third EPS number "adjusted eps" or "adjusted earnings".

Tesla could say in it's press release and shareholder deck that "the company earned $2.01 per share but after adjusting the Bitcoin charge, adjusted EPS was $2.34.

Sometimes you will see the headline. "Adjusted earnings beat estimates".
All very silly, I know.

Here is Gary Black commenting that Bitcoin does not get excluded:
 
I’m confused though. Are the 4680 equipped Y’s not able to exceed 300 miles? Will there be a long range model coming that co Pete’s with the 2170 long range AWD out of Freemont? I would be interested In upgrading in a couple years, but not to a shorter range car. I’m not sure I understand the game plan. As the migration to 4680 continues will ranges get shorter?

Back in January, wasn't it, they built the 1 millionth 4680 cell? But there are what, over 1000 cells per car? So that’s not enough for many vehicles. In the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley interview recorded 3 weeks ago Elon said the 4680 ramp was going slow and needed attention. There are at least 3 suppliers working on 4680s but not starting deliveries for about a year. We’re now seeing 2170 Model Ys delivered from Austin, which I think was clearly Plan B. Bottom line, I think the quantity of 4680s is still pretty limited.

So given a tight cell supply, would you rather sell a modest number of mid-range cars, or a small number of longer range ones? I think Tesla is choosing to sell mid-range Model Ys because they get more deliveries out of the limited number of 4680s they have. I expect long-range 4680 cars once the supply is unlocked.
 
Gary has been very actively engaging TSLAQ for the past few days, interesting to watch the TSLAQ crowd was very different from 3 years ago (even dumber).
Also, seeing a Tesla AI bear completely ignoring FSD can still be a TSLA bull, makes my head spin seeing the future possibility.
The auto business by itself is already plenty to be bullish about with Tesla. Stuff like FSD and robot is just for pie in the sky daydreaming. It's nice if/when it happens but I don't need that to be bullish at all.
 
Back in January, wasn't it, they built the 1 millionth 4680 cell? But there are what, over 1000 cells per car? So that’s not enough for many vehicles. In the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley interview recorded 3 weeks ago Elon said the 4680 ramp was going slow and needed attention. There are at least 3 suppliers working on 4680s but not starting deliveries for about a year. We’re now seeing 2170 Model Ys delivered from Austin, which I think was clearly Plan B. Bottom line, I think the quantity of 4680s is still pretty limited.

So given a tight cell supply, would you rather sell a modest number of mid-range cars, or a small number of longer range ones? I think Tesla is choosing to sell mid-range Model Ys because they get more deliveries out of the limited number of 4680s they have. I expect long-range 4680 cars once the supply is unlocked.
828 cells per car: 4 modules * 3 bandoliers * 69 cells
92S9P

No one knows outside Tesla for sure.

Some of the speculation I know.

-The 4680 cars are currently software range limited and the extra range will be unlocked at some point when they are more confident with the cells.
-It's the first iteration of the 4680 and they will improve the energy density over time.
-It's the nickel and manganese version of the 4680 cell which was design to have lower energy density at assumed lower cost per the battery day slides.

There's probably a few I missed.

Pretty sure it will improve. Also good to keep in mind the 4680 was really about cost, efficiency and super high volume.
Yah, will improve.
Additional possibility: theoretically, they could put empty cell(s) in each group of 9 and reduce capacity in steps of 11%.
 
I was surprised as well that Bitcoin is not excluded from Non-GAAP. I am open to be corrected on this but here is my understanding.

Non-GAAP EPS is not regulated. Each company decides what gets excluded or included for Non-GAAP EPS. Non-GAAP EPS is meant to provide the financial reader a better measure of the company's performance. I would have thought that with the aim of providing a better measure of performance, Tesla would exclude the Bitcoin charge from Non-GAAP but they have not done so in the past. They only arrive at Non-GAAP EPS by removing Stock Based Compensation expenses.

Some companies provide a third EPS number "adjusted eps" or "adjusted earnings".

Tesla could say in it's press release and shareholder deck that "the company earned $2.01 per share but after adjusting the Bitcoin charge, adjusted EPS was $2.34.

Sometimes you will see the headline. "Adjusted earnings beat estimates".
All very silly, I know.

Here is Gary Black commenting that Bitcoin does not get excluded:

No. GAAP is designed to be the correct measure of a company's performance. Non-GAAP is what management wants the unsophisticated to to focus on.

Taking a one-time charge for layoffs is still an expense which does not go away. The cash needs to get paid out over the next weeks/months. Taking a charge for loss on Bitcoin, is still an asset loss to the company. Elon chose to purchase a volatile asset and he can't just wish the loss away. That is no different than if he purchased a bunch of stock in a battery maker that tanked. If management did not want the volatility, management (aka Elon) could have just put the cash into a money market fund. In other words, "company performance" was poor on this one aspect of cash control. GAAP shows that Elon now has less of an asset to spend in the future should he need it to open GigaXX.
 
No. GAAP is designed to be the correct measure of a company's performance. Non-GAAP is what management wants the unsophisticated to to focus on.

Taking a one-time charge for layoffs is still an expense which does not go away. The cash needs to get paid out over the next weeks/months. Taking a charge for loss on Bitcoin, is still an asset loss to the company. Elon chose to purchase a volatile asset and he can't just wish the loss away. That is no different than if he purchased a bunch of stock in a battery maker that tanked. If management did not want the volatility, management (aka Elon) could have just put the cash into a money market fund. In other words, "company performance" was poor on this one aspect of cash control. GAAP shows that Elon now has less of an asset to spend in the future should he need it to open GigaXX.
Yet, Bitcoin gains were never part of GAAP nor non-GAAP...
 
Agree comment section is interesting, well worth a browse if you have time. Lots of comparisons between loop and undergound, light rail, rail and bus networks. It looks like on most metrics, loop is better (an order of magnitude in the case of cost).

There are a few things that were not mentioned.

1. Loop gives point to point, there is no need to change.

Take the example of London, about 600 square miles so that means there are 180,000 pairs of mile square routes. The London Underground network has about 272 stations with each station connected to about 25 other stations along the line, so about 7,000 pairs. Add in rail, light rail and tram and there are perhaps 15,000 pairs of mile squares that are connected directly, for the rest to go from one mile square to another you must change, perhaps more than once.

Compare that to a hyperthetical Loop network for London. Each square mile would perhaps have 10 loop stations connected by 20,000 miles of tunnels. Point to point would be possible for all of London. Such a system would have a capability for about 20 million passenger journeys per day and a peak of maybe up to 4 million passenger journeys per hour.

2. Using cars that can travel on city streets as well as in tunnels means that door-to-door travel is possible. Not only does this cut down journey times, but makes it easier for many types of disabled users and parent with small children to use public transport. Some people (mainly elderly) are put off using public transport because of percieved risks of being attacked, particularly at night, not only on public transport but also on the walk to the station.

3. Compared to subways or even ground level streets it is much easier, quicker and cheaper to alter the network as usage changes, adding in stations and tunnels.
In the 2018 Boring Co presentation of the Hawthorne test tunnel, Elon stated that they’re planning for 10-20x higher station density than a typical subway network. For the London Underground comparison, this translates from 272 stations to 2700 to 5400 stations.

Also the stations will mostly be on the surface or directly into existing underground parking garages, making the trip between station and destinations that much shorter.

Subways can’t possibly compete with this level of station density because of the need to minimize the number of stops and the size and expense of the stations.

And there’s still no plan to use a supplier other than Tesla, because they make the best EVs with the best lifetime total cost of ownership in their class.
 
I expect in Europe and China similar weak numbers from 'the competition is coming"

1656887924726.jpeg
 
Stuff like FSD and robot is just for pie in the sky daydreaming.
Considering the smartest people on the planet in AI are not only working on this, but are the highest paid smartest people on the planet, I would explicitly disagree.

Yes, the impossible is late. Every time I watch a 'broomstick' land I'm reminded of this.

I'm also happy that Tesla is most likely the leader in complex high tech safety critical manufacturing scale, which should already propel it to the most profitable company of all time...so there's that!
 
No. GAAP is designed to be the correct measure of a company's performance. Non-GAAP is what management wants the unsophisticated to to focus on.

Taking a one-time charge for layoffs is still an expense which does not go away. The cash needs to get paid out over the next weeks/months. Taking a charge for loss on Bitcoin, is still an asset loss to the company. Elon chose to purchase a volatile asset and he can't just wish the loss away. That is no different than if he purchased a bunch of stock in a battery maker that tanked. If management did not want the volatility, management (aka Elon) could have just put the cash into a money market fund. In other words, "company performance" was poor on this one aspect of cash control. GAAP shows that Elon now has less of an asset to spend in the future should he need it to open GigaXX.

Since the non-GAAP definition is at the company's discretion, I can't argue with you. You have a point.
Tesla only has one item in Non-GAAP vs GAAP and that is Stock Based Compensation.

Some companies have many items. Take a look at Ford.

Item #3 is a doozy:
They excluded from non-GAAP earnings: "significant personnel expenses, dealer-related costs and facility-related charges stemming from our effort to match production capacity and cost structure to market demand and changing model mix"

Item # 4 as well: "other items that we do not necessarily consider to be indicative of earnings from ongoing operating activities".

1656888428817.png
 
No. GAAP is designed to be the correct measure of a company's performance. Non-GAAP is what management wants the unsophisticated to to focus on.

Taking a one-time charge for layoffs is still an expense which does not go away. The cash needs to get paid out over the next weeks/months. Taking a charge for loss on Bitcoin, is still an asset loss to the company. Elon chose to purchase a volatile asset and he can't just wish the loss away. That is no different than if he purchased a bunch of stock in a battery maker that tanked. If management did not want the volatility, management (aka Elon) could have just put the cash into a money market fund. In other words, "company performance" was poor on this one aspect of cash control. GAAP shows that Elon now has less of an asset to spend in the future should he need it to open GigaXX.


If and when Bitcoin appreciates beyond purchase price, or even impairment levels, it won’t be shown on P&L unless sold. Is it split out on the balance sheet?
 
If and when Bitcoin appreciates beyond purchase price, or even impairment levels, it won’t be shown on P&L unless sold. Is it split out on the balance sheet?
No - the balance sheet will always show the lowest impaired value. A higher appreciated value would be disclosed in the footnotes to the financial statements.
 
Since the non-GAAP definition is at the company's discretion, I can't argue with you. You have a point.
Tesla only has one item in Non-GAAP vs GAAP and that is Stock Based Compensation.

Some companies have many items. Take a look at Ford.

Item #3 is a doozy:
They excluded from non-GAAP earnings: "significant personnel expenses, dealer-related costs and facility-related charges stemming from our effort to match production capacity and cost structure to market demand and changing model mix"

Item # 4 as well: "other items that we do not necessarily consider to be indicative of earnings from ongoing operating activities".

View attachment 824454
I prefer what Tesla does here. I somewhat consider the Stock Based compensation as “shareholder expense” rather than a “company expense”. All the shareholders are being diluted because of it but company cash is not going out the door.

Bit coin was cash that was “invested”. If they loose on the investment it should not be excluded from non-gaap as the cash is gone.

Ford looks like they throw in to non-gaap any unexpected items that were outside of budgets.

I wish I could have a household budget with no unexpected expenses.
 
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Happy July 4th weekend to the Americans around this forum.

As we head into another quarter, I would caution to keep last quarters events in mind before entertaining scenarios about how this quarter may play out.

Yes hopefully Q3 will be a record quarter for production & delivery, but it only takes one proverbial Covid turd in the punch bowl for us to experience another multi-week Shanghai factory shutdown. Unfortunately China’s success in stamping out covid means Tesla remains exposed to random forced shutdowns in the event of another outbreak. This will come across as rather callous, but from Tesla’s perspective the success of the Shanghai shutdown was almost the worst possible outcome.
 
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Did this slip by us?
I don't remember reading about this before. It looks like Jaguar/Land Rover (JPL) joined the Tesla/Honda CO2 pool in Europe.
and by the looks of it, Honda and JPL need all the credits they can get from Tesla as they currently show the largest gap to target (this is Q1 info).
EDIT: I read the chart incorrectly . . .they are ahead of target.
1656892979805.png

See full report here: ICCT.org study
 
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