Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw, sounds like Tesla got the approval to sell the test Berlin Model Y's now. So add about 2,000 onto deliveries for Q3.

That pretty much makes up for the 2 week downtime at Berlin to increase production (though I'm seen different reports, some say 2 weeks, others say 11 days).

Edit: Already been posted

 

[traxila]

I think rather than a grand conspiracy, sometimes incentives simply align. And as @Krugerrand constantly reminds us, people are garbage. This is simply wealthy traders willing to paint the narrative, media and politicians willing to go along for payment.

The supply update last week is actually far crazier than you mentioned. Gotta remember we also dumped 6Mb of crude from the SPR into the commercial market.

Total commercial supply increase for the week was around 22Mb. Here's the last 6 weeks of rise.

2022-Jun	06/03	1,165,620	06/10	1,170,567	06/17	1,174,293	06/24	1,180,641
2022-Jul	07/01	1,185,767	07/08	1,207,511

As a counterpoint, I see an increase of 42Mb the past six weeks, which would 100% be the amount released from the SPR.

So new supply has been flat?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Tesla basically remaining flat after the departure of its 2nd most important person (at least according to the prevailing perception) is very bullish. Seems FUD just does not stick anymore. Just like it was a bit surprising there was no SP collapse after the 2nd quarter low numbers (no matter that it was a supply not demand issue).

Bullish

 

[Matias]

If I'm willing to put my conspiracy theory cap on.....I'd say there was collusion between the bigger funds on Wall St and Putin himself. I don't put anything past Wall St trying to make it's money

 

[CHGolferJim]

If your account has less than $25k in it - you cannot day trade more than (I forget the frequency) a couple of times per 90 days.
If you are trading in a retirement account - you have to wait for the funds to settle from your trades before using that money again - 3 days.

I would imagine it is one of those 2 instances happening.

Not sure about your “3 days in IRA” comment. I’ve never waited for 3 days, and haven’t been dunned yet in 2 years. My advisor has said the two sides of a roll can be separated within a day as the accounting isn’t done until AH, but if the STO of a CC BTC/STO roll is delayed until the next day, I have to have enough cash in the account to cover the BTC.

 

[phoggy123]

Tesla basically remaining flat after the departure of its 2nd most important person (at least according to the prevailing perception) is very bullish. Seems FUD just does not stick anymore. Just like it was a bit surprising there was no SP collapse after the 2nd quarter low numbers (no matter that it was a supply not demand issue).

Bullish

The last two days has been market maker special to get to "max-pain". Dump in the morning, ride it back up in the afternoon, and Friday at 4PM we end up around 715-720. Earnings might shake us loose, then quickly followed by FOMC...we will see.

 

[Doit]

But Its not remote controlled... stop spreading misinformation

A few replies made me *unignore* this post.

I cited Pierre Ferragu's tweet as a credit to him b/c I first read the WIRED article following his tweet's link.

So first stop senselessly accusing me spreading misinfo.

Secondly, direct quote from the article: "The California DMV program that regulates driverless cars requires a vehicle’s operator to certify that it has a link allowing for “two-way communications” between a vehicle—including its passengers—and an employee remotely overseeing the robot’s movements."

Did Ferrugu spread misinfo given that? I'm not so sure. Also remember that it's a tweet and it's Twitter - it's obvious he's at least half joking, people there are not to read journal articles, well at least not for 99.99% of the people.

Of course @Bladerskb stays on my ignore list.

 

[bkp_duke]

Less than 2 hours ago- in this very thread

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I have talked a bit with Karpathy, very down to earth over the top nice guy. Don’t know him too well but will just paint a story based on public posts by him and what everyone knows. He is a pretty young at his 35 years, born in Slovakia. Brilliant guy. Got a Phd(with all that means) at...

teslamotorsclub.com

Actually, the Teslarti article said Tesla was ASKING FOR PERMISSION (specific words were "looks to sell"). The Electrek article cites a German source (RBB magazine) as PERMISSION HAS BEEN RECEIVED (i.e. the next step). These are not the same thing.

So I stand by my original post.

 

[phantasms]

If your account has less than $25k in it - you cannot day trade more than (I forget the frequency) a couple of times per 90 days.
If you are trading in a retirement account - you have to wait for the funds to settle from your trades before using that money again - 3 days.

I would imagine it is one of those 2 instances happening.

Three day trades per rolling five days. I got an email from TD, where I used to trade TSLA, and they told me to fund my account. I put a grand in there as I keep everything in JPM now as I don't day trade any longer, just options. I've been buying and selling a single share on the obvious points as I have the screen up for options research and totally forgot about that rule until this post. I'm up $58.60 but have 1 trade left! Reminds me of the early days. I'll buy and sit on the next drop. lol

 

[Nocturnal]

Three day trades per rolling five days. I got an email from TD, where I used to trade TSLA, and they told me to fund my account. I put a grand in there as I keep everything in JPM now as I don't day trade any longer, just options. I've been buying and selling a single share on the obvious points as I have the screen up for options research and totally forgot about that rule until this post. I'm up $58.60 but have 1 trade left! Reminds me of the early days. I'll buy and sit on the next drop. lol

I think you are talking about free riding violation, selling a commodity purchased with unsettled funds and selling it before the funds have settled.

FYI you can get an IRA with limited margin that makes this go away entirely. That's why I moved from Vanguard to Etrade.

 

[ZeApelido]

Everyone is worried about minor details like 4680 and FSD progress, but I am most concerned about how is Tesla going to get this to work with their massively long vents.

 

[lafrisbee]

Not sure about your “3 days in IRA” comment. I’ve never waited for 3 days, and haven’t been dunned yet in 2 years. My advisor has said the two sides of a roll can be separated within a day as the accounting isn’t done until AH, but if the STO of a CC BTC/STO roll is delayed until the next day, I have to have enough cash in the account to cover the BTC.

I KNOW you can do a sell and buy within one day. But ONLY one time. THEN you have to wait three days to do it again. At least with Etrade. I got dinged doing it just before the last stock split of TSLA. They froze my account for two days while I was in cash and TSLA went up 10% during that time.
To make matters worse I immediately bought back in as soon as I could. And timed it perfectly wrong. The stock went down 5-9% as soon as I bought.
Thankfully it went up a bajillion percent shortly after.

 

[elasalle]

Berlin doesn’t have high solar radiance, so, while possible, it may not be the cheapest. The problem isn’t electricity supply, that’s being looked after in Germany through the use of cheap coal. The problem is natural gas availability which is used in industrial processes.

Some brainstorming would be required on how best to try to utilize other forms of energy to limit gas usage. e.g. home heating etc could be converted to other forms, so more gas is available for industries etc.
cheers!!

 

[LYTRIDR]

Don't see it reported elsewhere, although it has been mentioned as "likely".

Electrek is reporting that Tesla has official permission now to sell the "test" cars it produced in Giga Berlin, assuming they meet production specs:

Tesla is allowed to sell Model Ys produced during 'test phase' at Giga Berlin, potentially thousands of EVs

Tesla is now allowed to sell the Model Y vehicles it produced during the long “test phase” at Gigafactory Berlin....

electrek.co

That's potentially ~2000 more Performance Y's that can be added to Q3 sales.

I wonder if the COGS for these vehicles was capitalized as part of the factory build out, and if so if they would have to reallocate that capital expenditure from the depreciation schedule into the quarterly expenses. It's probably not material but could be more than $100 million increase in income if there is an accounting trick where they would not have to account for the production costs of the vehicles in the quarter where the income is recognized.

 

[Ogre]

It's partially correct, they have remote control backup. Which means they need people manning the emergency backup controls for every single Cruise car on the road. Not a very scalable autonomous solution.

From the sounds of it, they halt when they lose communications. This suggests to me they are 100% remotely controlled. Sometimes its remotely controlled by a human and sometimes by a computer. If the phone home signal is only for human operators, why would the cars make such poor decisions on where to stop when they lose their signal?

Solid chance they stream video and sensor data and do all of the processing remotely where they have abundant power and cooling. That would add a fair bit of latency and failure points to their system.

 

[elasalle]

Are MM hedging sold TSLQ by buying TSLA

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thank goodness it was not another "Tesla Killer"

GM Sets Date for Its Mercedes-Benz Killer - TheStreet

The legacy carmaker is attacking the top of the top in the electric market.

www.thestreet.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

As a counterpoint, I see an increase of 42Mb the past six weeks, which would 100% be the amount released from the SPR.

So new supply has been flat?

It's been been most of the supply increase, yes. SPR release started very slowly and has only neared the full 1Mb/d in recent weeks. They actually track total supplies including SPR and it's up maybe 8Mb over the last 6 weeks vs 42Mb excluding SPR change.

To me that speaks to pure price gouging. Certainly a true open market would find 600kb/d in extra supply over the last few months to profit from absurdly high pricing. Nope. US production looks like it was purposely capped and very meticulously increased, making sure not to spook the markets with too much supply. Then WH released an extra 500k-1Mb/d and that plan has gone all to hell.

The trade simply has to break soon. It was nonsense from the beginning, now this week we're bursting at the gills with supply on all fronts.

As for conspiracy......it's definitely more pronounced in the oil world, but this covid disruption play is so second nature to these producers/traders/financiers that they needed little more than a few winks and nods in the marketplace to align the recent run up.

Now we've certainly documented clear as day Wall Street collusion with OPEC in the oil thread many times. Wall Street hedgies were outright invited to the 2016 & 2017 OPEC+ meeting where it was decided the Saudis would limit exports to the US as much as possible to make it appear that supply was tight worldwide. After all......we're the only semi-transparent market of any size in the world. Now that's pure collusion.

 

[inconel]

Thank goodness it was not another "Tesla Killer"

GM Sets Date for Its Mercedes-Benz Killer - TheStreet

The legacy carmaker is attacking the top of the top in the electric market.

www.thestreet.com

View attachment 828559

How do you kill a competitor with a production of 500 per year?

 

[Prunesquallor]

How do you kill a competitor with a production of 500 per year?

Exclusiveness, man. Limit production, then jack the price through the roof. See Rolex, Louis Vuitton, etc.

"The Celestiq will be a very niche and exclusive product, GM says, with each unit hand-crafted and customized for each buyer at dedicated facilities in Warren, Mich. Its base price could be around $300,000. "

(Soon to be seen charging at Walmart).