Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

I don't follow this guy, but If this is true, it baffles me that such YTs are willing to dash their credibility against the rocks in exchange for a few more clicks.

Almost like politicians

 

[MP3Mike]

Do we know, when they build 2170 packs at Austin and Berlin, are they structural 2170 packs or old-school 2170 packs?

They don't build 2170 packs at Austin, just like they don't in Fremont. The 2170 packs are made in Nevada. (And I think they mentioned that the 2170 packs used at Berlin come from China.)

That may be true but it does not have to be. Texas could indeed use a 2170 pack where the pack had extra bracing in it to make up for the smaller size cell and have the workable structural characteristics. You could have a structural pack car with 2170 cells.

The pack is always structural to the car. When Tesla says a structural pack they mean that the cells provide structure, rather than being carried like a bag of potatoes. Making a 2170 structural pack would require changes to the cell itself, which Panasonic isn't likely to do.

Good question. I have not seen anything definitive but likely non-structural.

Really? Then you don't pay attention much. Tesla has said it many times. For example from Q1 slidedeck:

And from the Q2 slidedeck:

The challenge with non-structural is they would likely have to go back to the build much like they are doing in Fremont. No front casting, normal floorpan, etc. It just seems like a lot of complexity to build both variants.

A non-structural pack doesn't prevent the use of a front casting. But, yes, they would have to do something different to provide a load floor for those cars, but it probably isn't that different of a production line.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Nice start today, up 4%. Lets hope it holds.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In case anyone has forgotten.......Stock split 3:1 to be voted for and approved next month

 

[MartinAustin]

"$800 resistance" opens one eye... TSLA cowers in fright

 

[2daMoon]

In case anyone has forgotten.......Stock split 3:1 to be voted for and approved next month

So, that'll make it $300/chair, right?

Sweet!

 

[MP3Mike]

In case anyone has forgotten.......Stock split 3:1 to be voted for and approved next month

Nope. The vote is only to authorize Tesla to be able to issue additional shares. If that is approved the board will likely authorize a 3:1 split. But we don't know when they would do that.

i.e. We don't get to vote for a split. The only thing we could do would be to vote to prevent them from being able to do a split.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Old school, there are no structural 2170 packs. This is part of why the current 4680+dual use chassis design is over engineered. The chassis works with a non-structural pack, so it's over built; and the 4680 pack has extra design margin even it were a more integral part of vehicle structure.

That's something I've been wondering about. I've inferred that 2170 Austin packs were still being build into the same chassis structure as the "structural 4680s", with the "open floor" of the 4680 design. Anything else would be a major change to the line to have both a structural and non-structural chassis. Can anyone confirm that?

Also, does anyone know what the lower structural pan of the battery packs are made of? I thought I saw aluminum in some of the teardown videos, but am not positive. If so though, seems like another potential gigacast part. The pan is somewhat complicated with a number of doublers and stiffeners welded in place, as well as a bunch of thread inserts and fitting ports. Gigacasting might simplify it and offer options for putting some ribbing or structure in place. Of course if that pan is steel for protection of the battery packs, that's not likely. Die casting might offer some options to incorporate cooling lines and routing-I think that there is a "lost core" process for diecast parts to make passages.

Edit-lost core die casting-not sure it can scale to much larger parts.

 

[Mengy]

You just had to go and say this.

Don't you know how this works? Might as well have made it rhyme too.

TSLA up in the Pre Market,
My favorite stock is a painted target,
FSD is almost ready to go,
Cybertruck going to steal the show!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nope. The vote is only to authorize Tesla to be able to issue additional shares. If that is approved the board will likely authorize a 3:1 split. But we don't know when they would do that.

Thanks for the clarification....i think there is a fairly good chance that happens don't you?

 

[Stretch2727]

Really? Then you don't pay attention much. Tesla has said it many times. For example from Q1 slidedeck:

View attachment 830929

And from the Q2 slidedeck:

View attachment 830928


A non-structural pack doesn't prevent the use of a front casting. But, yes, they would have to do something different to provide a load floor for those cars, but it probably isn't that different of a production line.

Thanks, so it is clear it is non structural with 2170. So the key question is are they still using the front casting with this configuration?

Having a body shop producing with/without this casting would be quite complex and possibly inefficient but not impossible.

If they have both versions with the front casting it would be much better from an efficiency standpoint.

 

[PKEllefsen]

Updated base case 2022 - 2025. 2025 deliveries will be very hard to predict before we know when the new factories are announced and how many there will be. I guess it's most likely that there will be two new ones announced before the end of the year, but three would be awesome.

2023 - Cybertruck introduced in low volumes, but doesn't impact overall profits at any meaningful levels. CT ramp difficulties might occur. Overall ASP increases as S/X deliveries increases and Model Y sales increases faster than M3 sales. A slight decrease in M3/MY sales prices in H2 2023 is accounted for.
2024 - M3/MY price falls a bit further, but overall ASP still increases due to CT, Roadster, semi, S/X deliveries adding 3000-4000 USD to the overall ASP. Also MY sales increases faster than M3. Compact car might start deliveries at low scale in H2 2024 (being built in Shanghai and potentially new factories)
2025 - M3/MY might near peak deliveries at 1M M3 and 3M MY. Overall ASP falls as compact car starts scaling, M3/MY price falls further and CT starts delivering more dual motor variant. If Robotaxi network has opened in some states at this point it shouldn't contribute too much to revenue yet, but would add a ton to PE as earnings expectations shoot up for upcoming years (not added for this valuation).

2024 and 2025 aside - 2023 is going to be lit!

 

[MartinAustin]

That's something I've been wondering about. I've inferred that 2170 Austin packs were still being build into the same chassis structure as the "structural 4680s", with the "open floor" of the 4680 design. Anything else would be a major change to the line to have both a structural and non-structural chassis. Can anyone confirm that?

Also, does anyone know what the lower structural pan of the battery packs are made of? I thought I saw aluminum in some of the teardown videos, but am not positive. If so though, seems like another potential gigacast part. The pan is somewhat complicated with a number of doublers and stiffeners welded in place, as well as a bunch of thread inserts and fitting ports. Gigacasting might simplify it and offer options for putting some ribbing or structure in place. Of course if that pan is steel for protection of the battery packs, that's not likely. Die casting might offer some options to incorporate cooling lines and routing-I think that there is a "lost core" process for diecast parts to make passages.

Edit-lost core die casting-not sure it can scale to much larger parts.

I believe in Sandy Munro's latest video, they say the bottom is aluminium

 

[EVMeister]

Thanks for the clarification....i think there is a fairly good chance that happens don't you?

I'd bet my TSLA shares they authorise a split.

Wasn't it also said to be advantageous to Tesla workers in terms of stock options if they authorise it by the end of August (or was that September)? Forget how this works, somebody on here will know.

 

[mongo]

More for the engineering thread, here for visibility .
Investor Engineering Discussions

That's something I've been wondering about. I've inferred that 2170 Austin packs were still being build into the same chassis structure as the "structural 4680s", with the "open floor" of the 4680 design. Anything else would be a major change to the line to have both a structural and non-structural chassis. Can anyone confirm that?

Also, does anyone know what the lower structural pan of the battery packs are made of? I thought I saw aluminum in some of the teardown videos, but am not positive. If so though, seems like another potential gigacast part. The pan is somewhat complicated with a number of doublers and stiffeners welded in place, as well as a bunch of thread inserts and fitting ports. Gigacasting might simplify it and offer options for putting some ribbing or structure in place. Of course if that pan is steel for protection of the battery packs, that's not likely. Die casting might offer some options to incorporate cooling lines and routing-I think that there is a "lost core" process for diecast parts to make passages.

Edit-lost core die casting-not sure it can scale to much larger parts.

Per Munro teardown, 4680 pack bottom is aluminum.
2170 car has extra brackets on side rails to attach front seat cross car beam.

Thanks, so it is clear it is non structural with 2170. So the key question is are they still using the front casting with this configuration?

Having a body shop producing with/without this casting would be quite complex and possibly inefficient but not impossible.

If they have both versions with the front casting it would be much better from an efficiency standpoint.

From older slide deck, Berlin is running stamped front ends (I'm guessing risk and gigpress availability mitigation). Austin likely only cast front.

 

[2daMoon]

Thanks, so it is clear it is non structural with 2170. So the key question is are they still using the front casting with this configuration?

Having a body shop producing with/without this casting would be quite complex and possibly inefficient but not impossible.

If they have both versions with the front casting it would be much better from an efficiency standpoint.

Both packs are designed to serve as structural components, as a whole.

In the 4680, the cells themselves contribute to the structural rigidity. So, are referred to as a "structural" pack design that saves weight.

The 2170 is designed with beams between cell sections to provide structural rigidity, at the cost of additional weight and less space available to populate with cells.

It seems quite reasonable that both the 2170 and 4680 packs are identical in how they bolt to the chassis, and are interchangeable on the production line.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Margins


Tesla pays their suppliers after they've sold the vehicle, so when deliveries go up every quarter that works very much to their advantage. They get a bunch of raw materials delivered, turn them into a car, sell it and get cash relatively immediately, and some weeks later pay the suppliers for the materials.

When deliveries are ramping up, you're always selling more than you're paying for, in effect (production vs deliveries). But when deliveries decrease, now the opposite is true and you have to pay for last quarter's production (305K vehicles) while delivering fewer (255K) in the current quarter.

That's going to deplete the cash stockpile, so to partially compensate, you take longer to pay your suppliers.

In Q3, we'll see the pendulum swing the other way, as they'll be paying for the Q2 production while delivering far more vehicles. Total payables may increase next quarter despite what they do with the DPO simply because they brought in far more raw material to produce more cars. But on Sept 30, they're going to have sold another, say, 400K vehicles, while essentially paying only for the 258K produced in Q2.

Then in Q4, they'll hopefully sell, say 440K vehicles, and be paying for the 400K produced in Q3. If sales were flat every quarter, it wouldn't matter as much.

I think they've managed this aspect very well in Q2, though being a Tesla supplier sounds like a rough gig.

Expecting your suppliers to fund your company via loans, which is what these delayed payment terms are, can be a little dangerous. Many suppliers don't have the deep pockets of Tesla or nearly their cash flow and their financial survival can be jeopardized by expecting them to provide this. The last thing Tesla needs to do is to jeopardize their supplier base to play accounting games, especially with their cash reserves. The companies I've worked at usually charge "net-30" (payment in 30 days). Even at net-30, discounts are offered for earlier payment. If Tesla is doing something like net-90, I can guarantee strongly suspect that their part and material costs are inflated to account for that. Would be curious to know what is typical in the industry. In the "old days" (when I worked there) as I recall GM was net-30, at least on tooling and equipment, not positive on raw materials.

 

[dm28997]

This is so much fun. Any guesses on SP at end of day

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I'd bet my TSLA shares they authorise a split.

Wasn't it also said to be advantageous to Tesla workers in terms of stock options if they authorise it by the end of August (or was that September)? Forget how this works, somebody on here will know.

Highly likely the split will be in effect prior to end of August. Here's the info I gathered in a previous post:

Like others have mentioned, the split will likely occur by August 31st. This is what they did for the last split and it was to benefit the employees most.

Attached are photos of the Tesla employee stock purchase program. Note these photos are of the older plan, but the recent plan should be about the same:
View attachment 815560

Employees can purchase up to 15% of their gross pay

View attachment 815561

The second of two offering periods ends August 31.

View attachment 815562
The purchase price is 15% lower than the lowest price between the offer period (September 1st, and the purchase date (possibly Feb 26th).

By having the split in effect prior to Sept 1st employees will be able to invest the max amount of dollars up to the 15% gross pay cap under this plan.

 

[ZachF]

So, that'll make it $300/chair, right?

Sweet!

Sparta, here we come…