Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I don't follow this guy, but If this is true, it baffles me that such YTs are willing to dash their credibility against the rocks in exchange for a few more clicks.

There may be a positive to Kevin's click-bait titles if it draws in those looking to see Tesla/Elon fail and it changes their perspective.

Still, I haven't clicked on one of Kevin's videos in well over a year, simply because such click-bait is irritating to me. I used to watch a lot more Tom Nash and have tapered off because he is often doing the same thing. But, they are trying to make a living as YT channels and I understand why they believe they have to do this.

Understanding it doesn't mean it will change my policy to avoid selecting click-bait to view. Feels too much like Sado-Masochism to me.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't follow this guy, but If this is true, it baffles me that such YTs are willing to dash their credibility against the rocks in exchange for a few more clicks.

It seems like if you want to make money on YT you have to go down the clickbait route. Most of these guys will admit it. His content is decent but I have the same complaints. It's so annoying to see "Tesla crashes!!!" *shocked face on thumbnail (content talks about how Tesla would crash our economy crashed or whatever)

 

[Beltsbear]

Old school, there are no structural 2170 packs. This is part of why the current 4680+dual use chassis design is over engineered. The chassis works with a non-structural pack, so it's over built; and the 4680 pack has extra design margin even it were a more integral part of vehicle structure.

That may be true but it does not have to be. Texas could indeed use a 2170 pack where the pack had extra bracing in it to make up for the smaller size cell and have the workable structural characteristics. You could have a structural pack car with 2170 cells.

 

[X Fan]

The accounts payable expense in Q2 increased $41M from Q1's $11,171. So total outstanding stayed similar.
Adjusting the Q2 value of $11,212 from 80 to 72 (assuming uniform distribution), yeilds $10,091. So the extra 8 days was worth $1,131M of cash on hand.

Thank you. I wonder if the new norm is going to be 80 versus the 71, 72, 65, 72 of the previous 4 quarters?

 

[thx1139]

I saw that this morning and I think Kevin is simply spouting Tesla FUD as clickbait. He's a savvy YouTuber so he knows posting negativity against the grain will garner clicks. Q2 was incredibly positive for the future of Tesla, much more so than expected, and anyone saying otherwise either doesn't know what they are talking about OR are being purposefully disingenuous.

I think Kevin is being the latter here as he studies Tesla deeply and usually understands them well.

Because of his penchant for click bait headlines I dont ever watch any of his videos any more.

 

[traxila]

Oil is getting hammered again which leads me to believe resistance at 100 is real. Looking for it to settle in 80 to 100 range which would do wonders for inflation going forward and I believe definitely already has. Recession would crush it down to 50 in a heartbeat and I guess it would be time to cut interest rates….

The oil industry is definitely flexing its muscles the past couple of years and the results are impressive. There is a long way to go….

 

[mongo]

Thank you. I wonder if the new norm is going to be 80 versus the 71, 72, 65, 72 of the previous 4 quarters?

I added a late edit to my previous post.
Inventory increased by $1,417M, so I think they will pull back to 70 days as that clears out.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Margins

The accounts payable expense in Q2 increased $41M from Q1's $11,171. So total outstanding stayed similar.
Adjusting the Q2 value of $11,212 from 80 to 72 (assuming uniform distribution), yeilds $10,091. So the extra 8 days was worth $1,131M of cash on hand.

Tesla pays their suppliers after they've sold the vehicle, so when deliveries go up every quarter that works very much to their advantage. They get a bunch of raw materials delivered, turn them into a car, sell it and get cash relatively immediately, and some weeks later pay the suppliers for the materials.

When deliveries are ramping up, you're always selling more than you're paying for, in effect (production vs deliveries). But when deliveries decrease, now the opposite is true and you have to pay for last quarter's production (305K vehicles) while delivering fewer (255K) in the current quarter.

That's going to deplete the cash stockpile, so to partially compensate, you take longer to pay your suppliers.

In Q3, we'll see the pendulum swing the other way, as they'll be paying for the Q2 production while delivering far more vehicles. Total payables may increase next quarter despite what they do with the DPO simply because they brought in far more raw material to produce more cars. But on Sept 30, they're going to have sold another, say, 400K vehicles, while essentially paying only for the 258K produced in Q2.

Then in Q4, they'll hopefully sell, say 440K vehicles, and be paying for the 400K produced in Q3. If sales were flat every quarter, it wouldn't matter as much.

I think they've managed this aspect very well in Q2, though being a Tesla supplier sounds like a rough gig.

 

[Discoducky]

Standard doom from WSJ. Does’t even try to parse numbers a bit. Just sticks to how this proves that Tesla is a standard carmaker that will suffer appropriately when the time comes.

Tesla’s Tough Second Quarter Shows What Might Happen in a Recession

The electric-vehicle maker isn’t a tech company that can exist in a parallel digital universe free of worries about factories and supply chains.

www.wsj.com

PSA, it is the author (Stephen Wilmot) and who is paying them (check out the latest "news" from this author), not necessarily the 'direct' employer (WSJ, but I make no excuses for them as Stephen is a supposed editor).

Dan Neil, from WSJ, is an author I will read.

 

[mongo]

Margins


Tesla pays their suppliers after they've sold the vehicle, so when deliveries go up every quarter that works very much to their advantage. They get a bunch of raw materials delivered, turn them into a car, sell it and get cash relatively immediately, and some weeks later pay the suppliers for the materials.

When deliveries are ramping up, you're always selling more than you're paying for, in effect (production vs deliveries). But when deliveries decrease, now the opposite is true and you have to pay for last quarter's production (305K vehicles) while delivering fewer (255K) in the current quarter.

That's going to deplete the cash stockpile, so to partially compensate, you take longer to pay your suppliers.

In Q3, we'll see the pendulum swing the other way, as they'll be paying for the Q2 production while delivering far more vehicles. Total payables may increase next quarter despite what they do with the DPO simply because they brought in far more raw material to produce more cars. But on Sept 30, they're going to have sold another, say, 400K vehicles, while essentially paying only for the 258K produced in Q2.

Then in Q4, they'll hopefully sell, say 440K vehicles, and be paying for the 400K produced in Q3. If sales were flat every quarter, it wouldn't matter as much.

I think they've managed this aspect very well in Q2, though being a Tesla supplier sounds like a rough gig.

Indeed, though Tesla's suppliers signed up for the 90 day payment terms, so it should not be unexpected nor a hardship for them. Especially since Tesla is likely one of the few clients keeping their orders up/ increasing them.

The other possibility with this metric is that the days is based on production rate which fell, thus causing the shift from 72 to 80 as opposed to a slowing of payments. (versus some average of bills due).

Vehicle production dropped 15%, days of payables increased 11%.

 

[Krugerrand]

So no news is good news for the share price as TSLA is now at the stage where it trades on fundamentals anyway. When FSD actually works then share price will double or triple overnight

You think that mid 700’s is a reflection of Tesla’s fundamentals!? Uh - no.

Tesla’s share price has reflected company fundamentals all of 60s since IPO. What TSLA has reflected at times is its future potential, but mostly it has reflected criminal activity. Currently, TSLA trades according to its options market with a healthy dose of criminality.

And no, the SP will not double or triple overnight when the FSD switch is flicked. First of all, nobody will believe it. Second, WS will need to adjust the options market and that will take time. They will use all their tactics, as they do now, to facilitate continued money stealing. Thirdly, and most importantly, FSD will continue to improve as it does now. It’ll be blocked in certain jurisdictions as it is now. Regulators are going to get on the bandwagon at some point to try and control its implementation. A few places will embrace it and go all in. So it is much more likely to be priced in bits and pieces over a few year’s time as WS is for ed to adjust their level of cheat.

Stop parroting the WS narrative. It’s a lie.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The two biggest takeaways the WS analysts will base their decisions on going forward is that Tesla held onto Dogecoin and that they avoided addressing multiple questions about the looming Demand problem.

/s

The demand problem was addressed, I read as much right here in this Reuters headline this morning.

It only took 4 or 5 years for clear as day paid nonsense to spread from the Business Insider's of the world to 90% of what used to be the real online press.

Sad state of affairs.

 

[Discoducky]

Because of his penchant for click bait headlines I dont ever watch any of his videos any more.

IMO, Kevin is pure clickbait and should be thought of as pure entertainment if you like that sort of thing.

Very different from our own @DaveT and @avoigt, as well as James and Rob's amazing insights and content.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549962965679345664

 

[SarahsDad]

Jim Cramer very positive talking about Musk’s earning call this morning on CNBC. Calls Elon “unassailable”.



Say what you want about Cramer but he can move the market. Looks like it’ll be a green day .

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That "fantasy" headline was pretty damn good, but this is my new favorite so far today. Poetry in motion from Bloomberg.....

 

[Mengy]

Looks like it’ll be a green day .

Looking good in pre market this morning, 15 minutes to the open. I'm curious to see how TSLA reacts after that great Q2 ER last night.

 

[Stretch2727]

Do we know, when they build 2170 packs at Austin and Berlin, are they structural 2170 packs or old-school 2170 packs?

Good question. I have not seen anything definitive but likely non-structural.

The challenge with non-structural is they would likely have to go back to the build much like they are doing in Fremont. No front casting, normal floorpan, etc. It just seems like a lot of complexity to build both variants.

Maybe they have a third variant where they use the front casting but add a floor pan for rigidity. Maybe this was the tooling they were waiting for from China. If they have done this it would be brilliant. They could start to change Berlin and China to the front casing while waiting for the 4680 to ramp.

Hopefully someone gets car soon and takes a look. It will be easy to see if it has a front casting and if the part numbers on the battery pack are the same as the Fremont cars.

 

[2daMoon]

Looking good in pre market this morning, 15 minutes to the open. I'm curious to see how TSLA reacts after that great Q2 ER last night.

You just had to go and say this.

Don't you know how this works? Might as well have made it rhyme too.

j/k (my sincere hope is my post won't age well)

 

[elasalle]

That "fantasy" headline was pretty damn good, but this is my new favorite so far today. Poetry in motion from Bloomberg.....

View attachment 830924

Hate TSLA for buying BTC
Hate TSLA for selling BTC
conclusion .. Just Hate TSLA

Old Man(Tesla) & the Donkey(BTC)

+ One CNBS guy said it under his breath - Elon is a liar