Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I don't follow this guy, but If this is true, it baffles me that such YTs are willing to dash their credibility against the rocks in exchange for a few more clicks.

It's not just clicks. It's because they have an over-inflated impression of their importance (they believe they can move the market) and they think it will help their position (brokerage account). They pretend to be sincere but they are anything but, it really turns the stomach of anyone who can see through their BS.

Kevin is another fool that is best ignored even though he has a better basic understanding than most. He's still a greedy, beady-eyed idiot.

 

[Stretch2727]

Both packs are designed to serve as structural components, as a whole.

In the 4680, the cells themselves contribute to the structural rigidity. So, are referred to as a "structural" pack design that saves weight.

The 2170 is designed with beams between cell sections to provide structural rigidity, at the cost of additional weight and less space available to populate with cells.

It seems quite reasonable that both the 2170 and 4680 packs are identical in how they bolt to the chassis, and are interchangeable on the production line.

The 4680 pack has integrated seat risers and cross car beams.

You cannot just throw a 2170 pack in to the car designed for the 4680 structural pack without a floor pan. No place to bolt the seats.

Anyway, I will stop this debate. Hopefully someone will take a look an an Austin 2170 car and see if it has the front casting. If it does not they are building much like Fremont. If it does it will really help with the flexibility and ease of scaling the 4680 from a body assembly standpoint.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It seems that Models S/X are now an extremely inefficient use of space in Fremont. Seems a redesign to bring efficiency closer to that of the Model Y could free substantially increase the total capacity of Fremont.

A real redesign of the Model S and/or X does seem to be warranted at some point. I suspect they would do a clean sheet redesign once they’ve worked out the bugs from Giga casting and have high volume 4680 cells. So, two new models that could be built better and cheaper since they would have efficiencies of the new cost saving technologies. Maybe a late 2024 announcement type of thing.

 

[JustMe]

More poetry please. I need cheaper entry prices after taking some profits ..

TSLQ is red
Go Jo is blue ..

 

[Mengy]

On a serious note, I have found the most efficient way to go through the Earnings Discussion is to go to Rob M's channel, put it on mute and on 2X speed, and read his typewritten notes as he transcribes the call.

I've done that in the past, it is a great way to digest the ER's as Rob does a great job.

 

[Pezpunk]

I'm experiencing a frequent crossing today of a certain threshold that only exists because of the decimal system. This effect has the power to change my status to either I AM ____ or I AM NOT ____ .

This makes me wonder WHO IS ____ , and further WHO WANTS TO BE ____.

Currently, I AM NOT ____.

I decided I’d retire and set up a 72T SEPP if my investment + retirement accounts reached 8 figures. That happened early this year, and I did. Unfortunately, the last 6 months have sent me back below that mark (temporarily I believe) but I’m pretty sure I’m still gonna be ok!

 

[Snerruc]

Maybe that is true. However the anti-China sentiment is mostly in places like the US. In huge parts of the world that bias is largely dissipated (I'll skip examples) in part because major parts of Chinese products have proven high quality, high durability and excellent support. State Grid, Chery, Huawei, Kelon, BYD, CATL the list goes on.

It is both facile and misplaced to ignore Chinese development. State Grid is THE major provider of elect4rical system distribution in most of the world. The US mostly has never heard of it.
Industrially thinking Tesla is not the name to count on. State Grid has far greater credibility.

As a deeply committed Teslaphile I am acutely aware that Tesla is barely known in the parts fo the world that most need improved electrical generation and distribution. Even for battery storage names like BYD and a number of names unknown in the NA/EU markets have better recognition and established positions.
Tesla is totally absent from South America, Africa, much of Asia and Eastern Europe. All those places are now beginning to adopt less fossil fuel intensive policies. Tesla will not be a factor for most of them.

You think that mid 700’s is a reflection of Tesla’s fundamentals!? Uh - no.

Tesla’s share price has reflected company fundamentals all of 60s since IPO. What TSLA has reflected at times is its future potential, but mostly it has reflected criminal activity. Currently, TSLA trades according to its options market with a healthy dose of criminality.

And no, the SP will not double or triple overnight when the FSD switch is flicked. First of all, nobody will believe it. Second, WS will need to adjust the options market and that will take time. They will use all their tactics, as they do now, to facilitate continued money stealing. Thirdly, and most importantly, FSD will continue to improve as it does now. It’ll be blocked in certain jurisdictions as it is now. Regulators are going to get on the bandwagon at some point to try and control its implementation. A few places will embrace it and go all in. So it is much more likely to be priced in bits and pieces over a few year’s time as WS is for ed to adjust their level of cheat.

Stop parroting the WS narrative. It’s a lie.

On the subject of FSD, we need to remember that when real safety improvements come about, governments tend to mandate them on ALL vehicles sold. In the US, remember sealed beam headlights? Or antilock brakes? Or seat belts? Or, or, or….? Can Tesla charge extra for a back up camera beyond their material cost? No. When self driving cars really work, Tesla or someone else’s, it will be mandated and the window for big bucks will close rapidly.

 

[MP3Mike]

A new revenue stream will start in about 8 years... Standard Connectivity is only free for 8 years on vehicles ordered after July 20th, 2022: Connectivity

What vehicles will continue to receive Standard Connectivity at no cost?
All new Tesla vehicles ordered on or before July 20, 2022, will have Standard Connectivity features at no cost for the lifetime of the vehicle (excluding retrofits or upgrades required for any features or services externally supplied to the vehicle – e.g. telecommunications network). As additional features and services become available in the future, you will have the opportunity to upgrade your connectivity plan.

What they don't spell out is will you be able to subscribe to Standard Connectivity, or will you be required to subscribe to Premium Connectivity after the 8 years?

Also, I can't tell if navigation goes away after 8 years, or just updates to offline maps:

Does Standard Connectivity include in-car maps and navigation functionality?
Yes. All vehicles with Standard Connectivity will continue to receive the same core maps & navigation functionality as vehicles with Premium Connectivity, including traffic-based routing, Trip Planner and Supercharger stall availability. Standard Connectivity is included in your vehicle, at no additional cost, for eight years beginning on the first day your vehicle was delivered as new by Tesla, or the first day it is put into service (for example used as a demonstrator or service vehicle), whichever comes first. If you are purchasing a used vehicle, you will be notified of how long your vehicle will include access to Standard Connectivity. Premium Connectivity will add satellite-view maps and live traffic visualization.

It sounds like you lose Trip Planner and Supercharger stall availability. I guess we will find out what they charge for it in about 8 years...

 

[Mengy]

It's not just clicks. It's because they have an over-inflated impression of their importance (they believe they can move the market) and they think it will help their position (brokerage account). They pretend to be sincere but they are anything but, it really turns the stomach of anyone who can see through their BS.

Kevin is another fool that is best ignored even though he has a better basic understanding than most. He's still a greedy, beady-eyed idiot.

I don't think Kevin is a fool, I think he understands exactly what he is doing:

Putting on a show for the YouTube algorithm to maximize views for AdSense revenue.

In that regard he does a "good" job as long as you view him purely as entertainment, but I feel bad for the people who view him as informative. Though he does often weave a bit of truth in with the drama and clickbait.


EDIT: Oooh, we're knocking on $800 again, so close!!!!

 

[JRP3]

The 4680 pack has integrated seat risers and cross car beams.

I'd think they could build a reinforced top cover for the 2170 packs which included seat risers and cross car beams.

 

[Drumheller]

A real redesign of the Model S and/or X does seem to be warranted at some point. I suspect they would do a clean sheet redesign once they’ve worked out the bugs from Giga casting and have high volume 4680 cells. So, two new models that could be built better and cheaper since they would have efficiencies of the new cost saving technologies. Maybe a late 2024 announcement type of thing.

The Munro teardown revealed that new version released with Plaid basically is the redesign. Much of the car has been changed and updated. Are you wanting a different look / style?

 

[MP3Mike]

A real redesign of the Model S and/or X does seem to be warranted at some point. I suspect they would do a clean sheet redesign once they’ve worked out the bugs from Giga casting and have high volume 4680 cells. So, two new models that could be built better and cheaper since they would have efficiencies of the new cost saving technologies. Maybe a late 2024 announcement type of thing.

Model S and Model X aren't produced in enough volume to make Giga Castings pay off. They likely couldn't share front/back castings so they would have to quintuple volume to make Giga castings work out. (i.e. that ain't going to happen.)

And, they just did a "real" redesign, they changed almost everything on them even though they look very similar. (And they said that they cost less to make now than they did before the redesign.)

 

[Knightshade]

On the subject of FSD, we need to remember that when real safety improvements come about, governments tend to mandate them on ALL vehicles sold. In the US, remember sealed beam headlights? Or antilock brakes?

Sure.

I remember they generally take decades to be required AFTER they'd clearly been proven safer.

Seat belts were invented in the late 1800s. They weren't required in cars until 1966- and nobody was required to USE them in any US state until 1984, and not in all of them till 1995.

Modern ABS was invented in 1971. 4 wheel ABS first went on a car in 1978.
ABS wasn't required by NHTSA until 2012.

Modern AEB was invented in 1990. It was on production cars dating to 1997. It's STILL not mandatory on all US vehicles today in mid-2022 (though there's a voluntary agreement that "nearly" all will have it by later in 2022- that's still over 30 years from invention to nearly everyone using it, and over 20 from first commercial deployment)


So not relevant for much of anything financially today or anytime soon.

 

[mongo]

I'd think they could build a reinforced top cover for the 2170 packs which included seat risers and cross car beams.

Otherwise known as a floor
2170 pack attaches to cross car supports so car holds up pack from bottom.
Cutaway image from Berlin tour in Engineering thread...
Investor Engineering Discussions

 

[Buckminster]

Am I the only one expecting (and hoping) Bitcoin to be re-bought in the next year or so? Elon almost said as much.

If you having trouble determining whether my posts are intentionally funny or not, I can always provide hints. This one is unintentional but always happy to have you laugh at my expense.

Worry not, nobody will care the second time around because TSLA will be up so much by then.
Now off to tinker with my $375T 2030 forecast. That one was intentional. Or was it?.. (larger font added for dramatic effect)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oooh, we're knocking on $800 again, so close!!!!

Where have we seen that number before? Hmm... Max Pain chart and high call volume on Monday.

The call buying I mentioned tends to pull it up some. Max pain and how it changes can be useful, but it's only Monday on a pretty crazy week. So why not 800? It was headed that way earlier today.

 

[Matias]

Tesla says that Model S/X annual capacity is now 100 000. I wonder why you still can't order one in Europe.

 

[X Fan]

Margins


Tesla pays their suppliers after they've sold the vehicle, so when deliveries go up every quarter that works very much to their advantage. They get a bunch of raw materials delivered, turn them into a car, sell it and get cash relatively immediately, and some weeks later pay the suppliers for the materials.

When deliveries are ramping up, you're always selling more than you're paying for, in effect (production vs deliveries). But when deliveries decrease, now the opposite is true and you have to pay for last quarter's production (305K vehicles) while delivering fewer (255K) in the current quarter.

That's going to deplete the cash stockpile, so to partially compensate, you take longer to pay your suppliers.

In Q3, we'll see the pendulum swing the other way, as they'll be paying for the Q2 production while delivering far more vehicles. Total payables may increase next quarter despite what they do with the DPO simply because they brought in far more raw material to produce more cars. But on Sept 30, they're going to have sold another, say, 400K vehicles, while essentially paying only for the 258K produced in Q2.

Then in Q4, they'll hopefully sell, say 440K vehicles, and be paying for the 400K produced in Q3. If sales were flat every quarter, it wouldn't matter as much.

I think they've managed this aspect very well in Q2, though being a Tesla supplier sounds like a rough gig.

Thanks for the informative post.

re: suppliers……at low interest rates I’d suspect most firms would be willing to extend out a few days but as interest rates rise, there will be a lot more push back and/or will increase sell price (that cost increase pushback is probably what Tesla is seeing). Early in my career, interest rates were double digit and CFO’s were VERY strident about getting their cash.

 

[MABMAB]

A real redesign of the Model S and/or X does seem to be warranted at some point. I suspect they would do a clean sheet redesign once they’ve worked out the bugs from Giga casting and have high volume 4680 cells. So, two new models that could be built better and cheaper since they would have efficiencies of the new cost saving technologies. Maybe a late 2024 announcement type of thing.

So many things to be done first that would better add to bottom line sales and earnings. MP3 kind of stuff. more factories. more output. new vehicles and support for them. solar and storage. Semi, CT, next model, roadster.

Run the numbers for different scenarios, then explain the business rationale to re design

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

A new revenue stream will start in about 8 years... Standard Connectivity is only free for 8 years on vehicles ordered after July 20th, 2022: Connectivity

It sounds like you lose Trip Planner and Supercharger stall availability. I guess we will find out what they charge for it in about 8 years...

Very interesting! We'll find out sooner though since used cars purchased after yesterday are also affected. So this 2016 MS will have its free standard connectivity removed in Aug 2024:
Inventory | Tesla

Edited: I found an older vehicle with a more recent expiration of service rather than the Jan 2025 expiration originally posted.