Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

I no longer enjoy Costco hot dogs as they have stopped providing many required condiments (for example, onions etc…)!

Ah, but their chickens……

 

[Thekiwi]

Yup.. both Alphabet and Microsoft with slight misses. Alphabet getting a relief rally after snap concerns. Both of their guidances will be important, but this takes the first part of the earnings collapse narrative out. Visa killed earnings, but that shouldn't be surprising. ~4 more big names to go this week (Meta, Amazon, Apple, MC), but if all are this level it'll be more on the Fed and GDP than earnings.

I follow Apple rather closely (hold a position & have a fairly good earnings prediction history). For what it’s worth (not much), I am rather bearish on their earnings to come this week, which if correct will likely be a drag on the market on Friday.

 

[AudubonB]

Okay, that's enough Costco for a while. Besides, it's been in our portfolio since Price Club - as I've said many, many times, we are LONG-term investors.

 

[StateoftheArt]

Wrong. Every day we see FUD about Tesla and Elon. We know that the media lies. But when it comes to climate change some people believe everything they read: even the most ridiculous stories. The studies are hidden behind pay walls and the data is massaged and kept secret. When asked to debate findings the "scientists" always refuse. Gee, I wonder why? The models have been so bad they can be safely ignored. The polar ice cap is still there and the polar bears are fine. Given the pressure that climate scientists are under to conform to the narrative I don't see why anyone would believe anything they say. But, if you want to call me a moron that's fine, I've been called worse.

The climate change industry wants to spend tens of Trillions of dollars on their projects. Doesn't it make sense to do a cost benefit analysis on those plans first? The anti-nuke crowd is the same. They destroyed a great industry that was good for the planet and humans ... all based on FUD.

Thankfully, the vast majority of people are not falling for any of it. Especially now...trust the "science" ain't working very well anymore and deservedly so. When having legitimate/ common sense questions about it makes you anti science it is just cult like dogma.

Look at the failed predictions over the last 60 years. Seriously, look it up. It has to be the worst track record in recorded history.

Almost everyone wants clean air, water, etc. What people don't want is lousy propaganda that uses a boogey man and virtue signaling to usher in a form of world wide communism.

The only people that fall for this are kids (that have been indoctrinated) and leftists.

 

[insaneoctane]

If you bought TSLA in January 2021, you're at the same SP today after waiting patiently for 18 months. Pretty crazy. I know there have been ATH along the way AND we've had other worse examples in our history, but those longer examples have already been rewarded, while this example hasn't yet. HODL isn't always easy.

 

[Captkerosene]

I'm thinking some will take certain posters seriously when their avatar.

I'm a retired airline pilot with a little bit of a weight problem. "Captkerosene" was a cartoon character mocked because of an oversized ego.

Wouldn't mind changing it to "Local Maximum" or "and 69 others" but don't think I can.

 

[nvx1977]

If you bought TSLA in January 2021, you're at the same SP today after waiting patiently for 18 months. Pretty crazy. I know there have been ATH along the way AND we've had other worse examples in our history, but those longer examples have already been rewarded, while this example hasn't yet. HODL isn't always easy.

1.5 years is hardly much time at all. Getting in on TSLA in March 2016 (Model 3 announce) meant 4 years before meaningful appreciation.

Maybe HODL isn't easy (I did frequently question my sanity when I went all in), but jumping in and out and knowing when to jump sounds way harder and riskier.

 

[mrmage]

Mass produced mobile Bots with vision and mobility are more or less a virgin market.
Like most things to do with Tesla only a small percentage of the population will understand. Dojo will be eventually used to train the bots and they will be able to be trained to do useful work. For example, I think when training bots friut-picking, grading and packing, the vision component is relatively trivial compared to FSD.

I've seen robots with vision and mobility delivering products in both silicon valley and socal neighborhoods

Fruit picking, packing, and sorting are good examples. There are robots doing these now. Their form is optimized for the task and they use AI to grade and sort. As you noted, this is not a particularly difficult task.

Will general purpose teslabots with two arms and two legs be more cost efficient than machines designed specifically for those tasks? A teslabot with legs seems inefficient for an immobile sorting task, as is only two limbs for high speed packing tasks.

There are good use cases for a general purpose robot, like delivering food door to door, which needs to navigate stairs and elevators. However, this navigation is much harder, like FSD trying to navigate a multilevel parking lot.

For the market to value bot, Tesla will have to prove that 1) their AI can work in the real world, 2) teslabots are more cost effective than dedicated robots for a large number of tasks, 3) sales

 

[EVCollies]

Same here with my 2016 purchase. 1.5 years is nothing. At least this time around, people (most) can see that Tesla isn’t going away. Back then, it was far from a sure thing. HODL took major guts (or insanity) all the way through to 2019. Glad I never sold. Have only added since then.

HODL was tough but doubling down on the very red days in 2015 was rated insanity by my partner.

 

[Cattledog]

Dare we call 11K the Nasdaq bottom and the string of higher highs and higher lows since mid-June as the market's anticipation of recovery beyond verified inflation and projected recession? Oh the drama this week brings!

 

[MC3OZ]

I've seen robots with vision and mobility delivering products in both silicon valley and socal neighborhoods

Fruit picking, packing, and sorting are good examples. There are robots doing these now. Their form is optimized for the task and they use AI to grade and sort. As you noted, this is not a particularly difficult task.

Will general purpose teslabots with two arms and two legs be more cost efficient than machines designed specifically for those tasks? A teslabot with legs seems inefficient for an immobile sorting task, as is only two limbs for high speed packing tasks.

There are good use cases for a general purpose robot, like delivering food door to door, which needs to navigate stairs and elevators. However, this navigation is much harder, like FSD trying to navigate a multilevel parking lot.

For the market to value bot, Tesla will have to prove that 1) their AI can work in the real world, 2) teslabots are more cost effective than dedicated robots for a large number of tasks, 3) sales

I think the answer to that is mostly economic, it depends on the cost of the individual Teslabot hardware, but not the software, The software side is normal software margins.

If the hardware works and is adaptable to many different task via software, Tesla can make a lot of the revenue from software, including new software packages for the existing fleet. So pick fruit is one app, wash the car is another, if the customer wants the bot to do both, they buy both apps.

For the hardware itself the brains is the FSD car computer, the eyes are camera similar to the car. the bots soft body is similar to making car seats. most of the other components are stamped, cast or are similar to parts Tesla already uses in cars. The best way to lower the hardware cost and capture data for training is to crank out bots in high volume production. Most households might have 2 cars, if the bot hardware cost $20,000 to buy, eventually most households might have 1-2 bots. farms more like 30-50 bots, factories 100-1000 bots, city firefighting 1000 bots.

IMO a bot should cost a lot less than a car, the battery and motors should be a lot smaller, little glass would be required. A lot less raw materials are needed. The build process should be a lot simpler.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Perhaps it is time I need a new avatar, something unique, perhaps a dog...or a cat.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

My avatar remains the best of all possible options.

 

[capster]

I've seen robots with vision and mobility delivering products in both silicon valley and socal neighborhoods

Fruit picking, packing, and sorting are good examples. There are robots doing these now. Their form is optimized for the task and they use AI to grade and sort. As you noted, this is not a particularly difficult task.

Will general purpose teslabots with two arms and two legs be more cost efficient than machines designed specifically for those tasks? A teslabot with legs seems inefficient for an immobile sorting task, as is only two limbs for high speed packing tasks.

There are good use cases for a general purpose robot, like delivering food door to door, which needs to navigate stairs and elevators. However, this navigation is much harder, like FSD trying to navigate a multilevel parking lot.

For the market to value bot, Tesla will have to prove that 1) their AI can work in the real world, 2) teslabots are more cost effective than dedicated robots for a large number of tasks, 3) sales

Versatility helps increase volume which reduces manufacturing costs due to Wright’s Law. The capability to do a large range of tasks enables more volume than does a smaller range.

A small amount of versatility would still be helpful. It would be useful in situations where there isn’t enough work just on one task at a location for a robot to do each day. A robotaxi fleet operator with 10 vehicles might like an Optimus to clean the interiors of the cars each day. They might also like it to do other tasks such a cleaning at least part of a bathroom or picking up litter or pushing a broom or whatever.

Even if there is enough work on each task for a robot, versatility still may have value. For example, let’s say I have a job with five different tasks being done by five different types of dedicated robots. If one robot goes down or needs maintenance, work on the job may have to stop as it may not be economical to have spares for each of the five robot types around at all times.

Alternatively, a spare Optimus might be affordable enough to have around and one could step in and take over in place of another.

Tesla has already produced a large number of robots that are operating in the real world—it’s cars. If I recall correctly, the same neural net chips that go into their cars will go into Optimus Subprime. Presumably there will also be other shared components as well.

Tesla’s manufacturing prowess is not something that is easy to replicate. So competitors offering low volumes of dedicated robots are not guaranteed to be less expensive.

Also, the space of tasks need not necessarily be large. A robot that can walk up to a car, get in, and drive it would sell in volume both for use in ride sharing and by individuals.

As for sales, they do sell their dedicated robot cars now in volume. These come in slightly different packages. Granted, a humanoid robot is a big step but they are starting with a lot.

The road to getting a ways down the Wright’s Law curve probably doesn’t start with sales of Optimus units. Rather it may wend from selling the products of the robots’ work (that is to say Tesla’s manufactured products) through selling the robots‘ labor to eventually selling the robots themselves.

tl:dr Dedicated robots will have their niches, but are not that that much of a barrier to entry for Optimus.

 

[woof]

Aftermarket OT, but I think it's revelent to some of our members here, such as @Krugerrand.

A Polish scientific institute has classified domestic cats as an "invasive alien species," citing the damage they cause to birds and other wildlife.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/house-cats-invasive-species-polish-institute-1.6532330

You must walk around in kevlar body armor to call out the cat like that . . .

Nah, @Krugerrand is a pussy cat. But if she did attack @WolfHero, wouldn't that prove the institute's point...harmful to wildlife?

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if Teslabot could plug in Robotaxis for fast charging, that would eliminate the need for the snake charger.

It could clean the car while it is charging.

 

[Skryll]

[...]

Almost everyone wants clean air, water, etc. What people don't want is lousy propaganda that uses a boogey man and virtue signaling to usher in a form of world wide communism.

The only people that fall for this are kids (that have been indoctrinated) and leftists.

'World wide communism' sounds like a boogey man argument to me. You can deny reality all you want, 120F in pakistan/india you can laugh away but in the last few years even the rich nations full of convenient climate change deniers that say 'oh too bad' or 'its not real' about that have had their own flooding (Germany last year, billions of damage) and killer heatwaves (Portugal, Spain, France). Also fireseaons in California and the droughts are unprecedented. You can stick your head into the kerosine sand only so deep, eventually it will burn your *** too.

I think what's really happening is that fossil fuel profits are going away, and some people are more scared of that than the world taking harsh damage from negligence.

But cash flows are going to be redirected permanently away from fossil fuel, whether they like it or not, and they can scare us about the leftist Communist climate lying scumbags all day long, we still tear out the gas furnace and replace it with a daikin heatpump and replace both family cars with electric to never pay for gas, oil change or smog checks again. I rather pay Tesla and solar companies and daikin top $$$ to permanently reroute my cash flows away from the fossil fuel industry that spends a significant amount of it on propaganda and politicians to retain their cashflows. No need to support that any longer. Its over.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nice to see MSFT & GOOG pop 4-5% on mediocre earnings but good guidance. Let's see if AAPL can confirm we've bottomed on this tech dip and it's time to crush it in 2H22 as all these disruptions ease.

 

[lafrisbee]

Elon BS so you can skip it if you are inclined.

So "Journalists" Grind and Glazer (Sidebar...how cool is that...two journalists write this kind of article and their names are "Grind and glaz her"?) might be getting a huge christmas present from quite a high percentage of the members of this site.

I wonder if those two "ladies" were paid by one or more of you to write the article. If so my sincerest kudos. It might be more effective than you dreamed.

What if Elon quit all the social spotlight of the cuff crap, and actually settled in to a close group to communicate with when he felt like just being free...you know, like the rest of us (not me).

No more hi jinx... you guys would love it. (The money side of me would probably love it as well).

Now time will tell how successful you were.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon BS so you can skip it if you are inclined.

So "Journalists" Grind and Glazer (Sidebar...how cool is that...two journalists write this kind of article and their names are "Grind and glaz her"?) might be getting a huge christmas present from quite a high percentage of the members of this site.

I wonder if those two "ladies" were paid by one or more of you to write the article. If so my sincerest kudos. It might be more effective than you dreamed.

What if Elon quit all the social spotlight of the cuff crap, and actually settled in to a close group to communicate with when he felt like just being free...you know, like the rest of us (not me).

No more hi jinx... you guys would love it. (The money side of me would probably love it as well).

Now time will tell how successful you were.

I think I would need around 10 drinks to fully comprehend this post, but by the time I get back it might not be here