Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The real question becomes when will green hydrogen be cheaper to produce than gray/brown?

Green hydrogen won't be cheaper than grey/brown hydrogen for as far as the eye can see (unless fossil fuels are hit with stiff excise taxes).
Battery electric is already cheaper than brown hydrogen.

Hydrogen is an answer looking for a problem. It's dumb.

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 833869

I think everyone here is reading way too much into this. Watch next month we have a filing that he sold the shares he exercised.

 

[ALdawg]

I am reviewing the EV tax credit bill. It appears that a payment can be made to a dealer (page 381) and that dealer discloses to the buyer that a tax credit is available to offset the purchase. The buyer may or may not be eligible based upon income limits. Is the buyer supposed to disclose their income to the dealer during negotiations for a car at a dealer? This may be less of a problem for Tesla with fixed pricing, but I could imagine a high-income buyer not financing a car might not want to discuss income if the price is not fixed.

Page 375 discusses the VIN requirement on the purchaser’s tax return. Not certain what happens if income is higher than expected and you received credit at time of purchase from a dealer. Seems like they wanted to make the inventive available at purchase and then decided to apply an income limit.

Congress needs to simplify this, or many would be even less likely to buy a car from dealer that does not offer fixed pricing (e.g. anyone but Tesla).

 

[Drax7]

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Kimbal definitely has an information advantage, moreover he
is wealthy enough that a few million barely motivates him,
unless he is very bullish .

 

[elasalle]

I am reviewing the EV tax credit bill. It appears that a payment can be made to a dealer (page 381) and that dealer discloses to the buyer that a tax credit is available to offset the purchase. The buyer may or may not be eligible based upon income limits. Is the buyer supposed to disclose their income to the dealer during negotiations for a car at a dealer? This may be less of a problem for Tesla with fixed pricing, but I could imagine a high-income buyer not financing a car might not want to discuss income if the price is not fixed.

Page 375 discusses the VIN requirement on the purchaser’s tax return. Not certain what happens if income is higher than expected and you received credit at time of purchase from a dealer. Seems like they wanted to make the inventive available at purchase and then decided to apply an income limit.

Congress needs to simplify this, or many would be even less likely to buy a car from dealer that does not offer fixed pricing (e.g. anyone but Tesla).

All interests including the dealers need to be kept happy
Net I think customers will pay same price ... credits will go towards markups and price increase

 

[wipster]

I have 10 family members, my wife has 30. 40 rebates from one car sounds good to me. And of all 40 people buy a Tesla and sell it to each other, then we will get a total of 1600 rebates.

Sounds like Singuy and Marge are going large!

 

[Swampgator]

Across the entire tech sector, most employees were getting 7-10% salary hikes over the past year + one time retention stock bonus (that vest over anywhere from 2-4 years) that were in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

You also have to remember that while inflation has risen 8% and a tech employee only got a 5% raise, that 5% raise is off a higher salary. So the effective hit from inflation for the average tech employees is way less and not relative to the % raise they got.

The laptop class really does live in a bubble.

 

[scaesare]

They don't just chance it with a random solvent. They talk to the pro people and get something which dissolve without destroying the priced parts.

Given the cell can needs to be robust enough to deal with electrolyte and provide strength, I suspect it's not difficult to find a solvent that it can withstand capable of dissolving whatever composition the foam may be.

That's not to say cell replacement becomes easy....

 

[Drezil]

I like these days where it gradually climbs upwards rather than the yo-yo days

I prefer the yo-yo days for daytrading .. but only if i know it beforehand!

 

[elasalle]

Amazon jumps on revenue beat and rosy guidance for third quarter

Amazon on Thursday reported second-quarter results that beat on the top line and issued rosy sales guidance for the third quarter.

www.cnbc.com

Amazon shares climbed more than 9% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue and gave an optimistic outlook.

• EPS: Loss of 20 cents
• Revenue: $121.23 billion vs. $119.09 billion expected, according to Refinitiv

Amazon said it expects to post third-quarter revenue between $125 billion and $130 billion, representing growth of 13% to 17%. Analysts were expecting sales of $126.4 billion, according to Refinitiv.

 

[Zero CO2]

It's clear that this was thrown together rather quickly, I'm sure they will have to go back and figure things out more thoroughly later on if they want to actually tie meaningful financial benefits to this like priority access to Starlink IPO shares.

I'm one of the guys who decided to just try clicking the button without using Say or even submitting any forms manually. So now I'm stuck permanently in "Your request has been received" because for some unfathomable reason they let you click the button without submitting anything and there is no way to back out and submit something. If I'm stuck in limbo forever and they don't fix it before Starlink IPO they're gonna be getting a massive class action lawsuit from everyone like me.

same limbo status for me , no SAY , no PLAID , multiple accounts , no interest in updating multiple accounts as share counts change over time ... there must be some linkage in your voting shares ????

 

[Drezil]

I am reviewing the EV tax credit bill. It appears that a payment can be made to a dealer (page 381) and that dealer discloses to the buyer that a tax credit is available to offset the purchase. The buyer may or may not be eligible based upon income limits. Is the buyer supposed to disclose their income to the dealer during negotiations for a car at a dealer? This may be less of a problem for Tesla with fixed pricing, but I could imagine a high-income buyer not financing a car might not want to discuss income if the price is not fixed.

Page 375 discusses the VIN requirement on the purchaser’s tax return. Not certain what happens if income is higher than expected and you received credit at time of purchase from a dealer. Seems like they wanted to make the inventive available at purchase and then decided to apply an income limit.

Congress needs to simplify this, or many would be even less likely to buy a car from dealer that does not offer fixed pricing (e.g. anyone but Tesla).

In Germany you pay full price & get the incentive back after you provided the government with all needed paperwork (and for german standards surprisingly light.. just 1 online-form & upload of vehicle-papers & bank account)..

Weren't you the "slim government"-country, where people get mailed cheques all the time?! Just file it with your taxes & get it back with the rest from the IRA ..

 

[Ogre]

It's clear that this was thrown together rather quickly, I'm sure they will have to go back and figure things out more thoroughly later on if they want to actually tie meaningful financial benefits to this like priority access to Starlink IPO shares.

I'm one of the guys who decided to just try clicking the button without using Say or even submitting any forms manually. So now I'm stuck permanently in "Your request has been received" because for some unfathomable reason they let you click the button without submitting anything and there is no way to back out and submit something. If I'm stuck in limbo forever and they don't fix it before Starlink IPO they're gonna be getting a massive class action lawsuit from everyone like me.

I seriously doubt the current system will be used for something high stakes like getting a piece of the Starlink IPO.

It's the appropriate level of security for something like special shareholder socks or perhaps a tee shirt.

 

[Ogre]

In Germany you pay full price & get the incentive back after you provided the government with all needed paperwork (and for german standards surprisingly light.. just 1 online-form & upload of vehicle-papers & bank account)..

Weren't you the "slim government"-country, where people get mailed cheques all the time?! Just file it with your taxes & get it back with the rest from the IRA ..

We are the "You Scratch My Back" country, where lobbyists and special interests write the laws.

In this case it's GM, Toyota (Manchin), and apparently dealership lobbyists writing the bill.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Amazon jumps on revenue beat and rosy guidance for third quarter

Amazon on Thursday reported second-quarter results that beat on the top line and issued rosy sales guidance for the third quarter.

www.cnbc.com

Amazon shares climbed more than 9% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue and gave an optimistic outlook.

• EPS: Loss of 20 cents
• Revenue: $121.23 billion vs. $119.09 billion expected, according to Refinitiv

Amazon said it expects to post third-quarter revenue between $125 billion and $130 billion, representing growth of 13% to 17%. Analysts were expecting sales of $126.4 billion, according to Refinitiv.

The fact that Amazon is up 12% off of these numbers when it already sports a P/E of 59 while TSLA is at P/E 95 is a "wtf" moment when you consider both companies growth rates near term and long term

Even more hilarious is that the P/E is going to go up excluding the share price increase because Amazon posted a huge loss compared to a year ago. Yes, that's from Rivian, but Amazon's Q4 profit was mostly from Rivian as well.

 

[MP3Mike]

same limbo status for me , no SAY , no PLAID , multiple accounts , no interest in updating multiple accounts as share counts change over time ... there must be some linkage in your voting shares ????

Tesla has no knowledge of most shareholders. That information is held by the brokers. (And maybe ProxyVote.) So there is really no existing way for Tesla to know the shareholders that are just a "beneficial owner." (Which is most of us.)

 

[mongo]

Why This is Bullish IMO

In exercising these stock options, Kimball paid $1.8m to Tesla for the 25,000 shares and will pay the IRS and Colorado about $7.8m in taxes.
These options would have expired in June 2025; so why did Kimbal exercise them now and lay out the combined $9.6m in cash?

View attachment 833838

When you exercise stock options in the US, you pay at the ordinary income tax rate on the gain between the fair value and strike price.
This tax rate for Kimbal is about 41.5% (Federal and State).
Once exercised, if Kimbal holds the stock for more than a year, he would pay long term capital gains (about 28.3% Fed & State for Kimbal) on the gains above the $824 fair value today.

So the gain up to the $824 share price is at 41.5%
The gain above $824 share price is at 28.3% (if held a year or more)

So why did Kimbal exercise yesterday and not wait until June 2025? He believes share price appreciation is coming soon and wants to lock in the 28% tax rate for the gain on the stock above $824/share . . .and remember, Kimbal is a Board Member and has access to more information than we do.

Based on the timing of this exercise, it feels like something big has caused such an early action.

My gut hunch is that FSD has passed a big hurdle/milestone. I could be wrong, but my AI spidy-sense is going off based on 12.13 things that I'm learning...

@The Accountant , it pains me, but I have to disagree with you.
It is better for Kimbal to avoid exercising his options for as long as possible if his goal is maximum return.
While it seems counterintuitive, the reality is that one gets a larger net return and higher percentage retention by delaying exercise even though one ultimately pays more dollars in tax.
What it boils down to is that the amount one pays in tax on inital exercise no long gains value nor does the cost basis. Further, the returns from the remaining balance will be taxed again. The result is that there is less to grow and the options end up double taxed which the reset basis doesn't counteract.

Simple example spreadsheet:

options	1000
short term tax	41.50%
long term tax	28.30%
exercise price	$70
final price	$4,000
exercise price	$500	$800	$1,200	$1,600	$2,000	$3,000	$4,000
exercise cost	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000
gross value	$500,000	$800,000	$1,200,000	$1,600,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000	$4,000,000
gain	$430,000	$730,000	$1,130,000	$1,530,000	$1,930,000	$2,930,000	$3,930,000
tax	$178,450	$302,950	$468,950	$634,950	$800,950	$1,215,950	$1,630,950
net value	$251,550	$427,050	$661,050	$895,050	$1,129,050	$1,714,050	$2,299,050
gain	8	5	3.333333333	2.5	2	1.333333333	1
pretax value	$2,012,400	$2,135,250	$2,203,500	$2,237,625	$2,258,100	$2,285,400	$2,299,050
taxable	$1,760,850	$1,708,200	$1,542,450	$1,342,575	$1,129,050	$571,350	$0
tax	$498,321	$483,421	$436,513	$379,949	$319,521	$161,692	$0
net	$1,514,079	$1,651,829	$1,766,987	$1,857,676	$1,938,579	$2,123,708	$2,299,050
total tax	$676,771	$786,371	$905,463	$1,014,899	$1,120,471	$1,377,642	$1,630,950

As to why now, it may be he wanted shares to donate to his Big Green charity.
Edit: fixed first column

 

[Swampgator]

We have stagflation today. The markets have been extremely volatile. Inverted bond yield curve. Real estate beginning to soften. Where would you put your money? Cash is losing at 10% due to inflation. Gold, maybe? It's up this week, but down over the past year.
This is where I think Tesla may be a good play. They are growing rapidly, healthy balance sheet and FCF, have huge order backlogs, and have been able to increase their prices without a serious hit to demand.
Putting $$ into TSLA may be the safest 3-5 year play out of most current available investments. At least that's what I have been telling myself.

 

[thesmokingman]

I prefer the yo-yo days for daytrading .. but only if i know it beforehand!

It's been in a decent pattern, two days up one day down so still easily tradeable.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not trying to be a jerk, honestly asking if you have a source for your first sentence. I work in tech and have not seen such a thing apart from possibly some silicon valley positions.

My source is myself, who worked at Microsoft, Amazon, and currently at Discord along with many friends and former colleagues that are at Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, TI, Intel, Tesla as well as many at small to medium starts ups and semi-established tech studios, mostly in health tech.

So I very much have a good amount of insight into the tech workforce across many parts of the tech sector. 10% raises were very common over the past year as were the retention bonuses. Furthermore, all of the small and medium sized tech companies are estatic that big tech is putting hiring on hold for the next 1-2 quarters because they were have an extremely difficult time competing with the offers and retention bonuses that big tech was putting out.