Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Amazon tops estimate, jumps 11% AH! Good thing too because Intel is falling off a cliff as AMD and soft PC market is just killing them slowly.

 

[thesmokingman]

There goes that Apple again.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We have stagflation today. The markets have been extremely volatile. Inverted bond yield curve. Real estate beginning to soften. Where would you put your money? Cash is losing at 10% due to inflation. Gold, maybe? It's up this week, but down over the past year.
This is where I think Tesla may be a good play. They are growing rapidly, healthy balance sheet and FCF, have huge order backlogs, and have been able to increase their prices without a serious hit to demand.
Putting $$ into TSLA may be the safest 3-5 year play out of most current available investments. At least that's what I have been telling myself.

It seems to me like you are preaching to the choir by posting that here

 

[M|S|M MYP]

There goes that Apple again.

Good for Naz tomorrow, even though $TSLA will probably close at $849.98

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Good for Naz tomorrow, even though $TSLA will probably close at $849.98

I hope everyone is prepared for an annoying day of TSLA underperformance tomorrow

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I hope everyone is prepared for an annoying day of TSLA underperformance tomorrow

Even if they are not prepared....chances are >0% they will hear it from you on more than occasion tomorrow

 

[ZachF]

The fact that Amazon is up 12% off of these numbers when it already sports a P/E of 59 while TSLA is at P/E 95 is a "wtf" moment when you consider both companies growth rates near term and long term

Even more hilarious is that the P/E is going to go up excluding the share price increase because Amazon posted a huge loss compared to a year ago. Yes, that's from Rivian, but Amazon's Q4 profit was mostly from Rivian as well.

Even taking out Rivian, annualizing Q1 and Q2 puts its P/E at ~100… and it’s honestly no longer a growth stock. It doesn’t deserve to be worth more than Tesla.

I’m surprised it’s jumping so hard because Amazon’s finances really aren’t that impressive TBH.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Even taking out Rivian, annualizing Q1 and Q2 puts its P/E at ~100… and it’s honestly no longer a growth stock. It doesn’t deserve to be worth more than Tesla.

It's mind boggling how Amazon's getting that valuation.

 

[Swampgator]

It seems to me like you are preaching to the choir by posting that here

Just looking for reassurance

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla mailed me a check for $33.75 with no explanation. Does anyone here have an idea?

@Curt Renz , I think that was simply a thank you from Tesla for posting the Bohemian National Polka (and similar Polkas) here on TMC during ATHs earlier this year, and Tesla is just making sure that you are up for a repeat in a couple of months. You have officially been put on notice.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe we will have some fireworks tomorrow

 

[thx1139]

US is in a severe recession. US consumers continue to spend $500 to $1000 on new iPhones. Something doesnt add up.

 

[Swampgator]

Damn, look at the number of castings they are cranking out at Freemont!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

US is in a severe recession. US consumers continue to spend $500 to $1000 on new iPhones. Something doesnt add up.

The US consumer will continue to spend $1k on iPhones....because 'credit cards'

 

[Swampgator]

Damn, look at the number of castings they are cranking out at Freemont!

These have to be for Austin as well? Maybe even Berlin?

 

[EVMeister]

I hope everyone is prepared for an annoying day of TSLA underperformance tomorrow

Hopefully not like this...

Seems crystal clear TSLA isn't closing any higher than 805 for the week.

Call holders at anything over 805 (and there's a lot from 810 all the way up through 900) being bent over so easily by MM's.

 

[MP3Mike]

@The Accountant , it pains me, but I have to disagree with you.
It is better for Kimbal to avoid exercising his options for as long as possible if his goal is maximum return.
While it seems counterintuitive, the reality is that one gets a larger net return and higher percentage retention by delaying exercise even though one ultimately pays more dollars in tax.
What it boils down to is that the amount one pays in tax on inital exercise no long gains value nor does the cost basis. Further, the returns from the remaining balance will be taxed again. The result is that there is less to grow and the options end up double taxed which the reset basis doesn't counteract.

Simple example spreadsheet:

options	1000
short term tax	41.50%
long term tax	28.30%
exercise price	$70
final price	$4,000
exercise price	$500	$800	$1,200	$1,600	$2,000	$3,000	$4,000
exercise cost	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000	$70,000
gross value	$500,000	$800,000	$1,200,000	$1,600,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000	$4,000,000
gain	$430,000	$730,000	$1,130,000	$1,530,000	$1,930,000	$2,930,000	$3,930,000
tax	$178,450	$302,950	$468,950	$634,950	$800,950	$1,215,950	$1,630,950
net value	$251,550	$427,050	$661,050	$895,050	$1,129,050	$1,714,050	$2,299,050
gain	8	5	3.333333333	2.5	2	1.333333333	1
pretax value	$2,012,400	$2,135,250	$2,203,500	$2,237,625	$2,258,100	$2,285,400	$2,299,050
taxable	$1,760,850	$1,708,200	$1,542,450	$1,342,575	$1,129,050	$571,350	$0
tax	$498,321	$483,421	$436,513	$379,949	$319,521	$161,692	$0
net	$1,514,079	$1,651,829	$1,766,987	$1,857,676	$1,938,579	$2,123,708	$2,299,050
total tax	$676,771	$786,371	$905,463	$1,014,899	$1,120,471	$1,377,642	$1,630,950

As to why now, it may be he wanted shares to donate to his Big Green charity.
Edit: fixed first column

Um? What? The first column has a "little" issue.

But doesn't what you have there show less tax paid with an earlier execution of the options? Waiting until $4,000 to execute vs. executing now costs him more than twice as much in tax.

Edit: I see you fixed the first column. But something still looks wrong on it to me. It should have $300k more taxable than the $800 option shouldn't it?

For the $500 option he would owe $990,500 of tax after selling at $4000 for a total tax of $1,168,950. ($430k * 41.5% + $3.5M * 28.3%.) That would make the ending net value $2,761,050. ($4M - $1.16M tax - $70k initial exercise.)

Further, the returns from the remaining balance will be taxed again.

I don't understand this, nothing is double taxed, or "taxed again."

 

[Paracelsus]

I'm not concerned about this.

It would take much more than a $7.5k discount to make me buy a hydrogen car such as Toyota Mirai. Hideous, slow, dangerous, inconvenient and expensive to fuel, no thanks. If you gave me the car, I would immediately sell it (if possible) and buy a BEV.

Is the situation different for hydrogen semis? I doubt it. Trucking companies don't care about looks or acceleration, but they do care about fueling costs and availability and the occasional explosions at hydrogen stations. Batteries and renewable energy are getting cheaper; fossil fuel extraction and "brown hydrogen" ain't.

Yes, Manchin bows to his fossil fuel campaign-donors, but they are delusional if they think this token incentive will help them. The Green Tidal Wave is coming for them all.

I sincerely agree with your position on hydrogen cars @PeterJA - thank you. And Yes, I do believe that it could be different for the trucking industry, for the very reasons you mentioned - they do care about costs - and those costs include the upfront capital costs on new vehicle purchases…….and now our taxes may get to pay the the first $40,000 of that purchase for them. And why should it stop there? Shouldn’t we expect the production and distribution of Grey and Brown Hydrogen to be federally subsidized in the same manner and with the same level of enthusiasm that the production and distribution of our gasoline and diesel is. I certainly think it will be even though I fully disagree with it. Don’t get me wrong - I remain hopeful you sentiments are correct. I might be a bit tainted though, since IMO it was those same fuel subsidy efforts that put my boots on the ground in Desert Storm years ago.

I am also hopeful you are correct that a green tidal wave is coming. I too believe that. But I had attempted to convey in my previous post that I believe that we did not arrive at this substandard and somewhat disingenuous Build Back Browner bill by the efforts of Manchin and the fear of rejection from the senate alone. The guts of the Green New Deal have been torn out slowly by both sides of the aisle since well before the last election. Unfortunately I believe we have miraculously arrived at exactly the language they have been trying to steer this towards for the last two years - instead of acting quickly on Climate Change from the highest levels (in the words of so many broken campaign promises by so many).

That Green Tidal Wave is coming - but it ain’t coming from DC. That’s all rhetoric IMO. The Green Wave is coming courtesy of the companies whose names DC must not say out loud, and courtesy of those private industry leaders that continue to dare to move us all towards a more sustainable future despite the unprecedented continued attacks on their efforts, attacks on their character, and attacks on their hard-earned bank accounts by the very same politicians who once benefited from claiming a very close association with those same philosophies and ideals.

And now thanks to the efforts of Elon and the Tesla team and so many others, that green wave is literally green energy riding on lots of green - mountains of green $$ of investment capital investing in green energy solutions. And not because it is an idea favored by one political party over another, but because it is now the most efficient and the most effective energy and transportation path - far more cost effective than any other path no matter how you imagine it, or how any language in any new bill can try to deter it. Which is why private industry will go the path of the green wave regardless of these tremendously costly efforts by DC to take us any other direction, and to tell us that it was Mary out front leading the charge.

I continue to do my best to hold my shares to help propel the green wave. And now I will be doing even more due diligence to help minimize the likelihood that any of my future taxable earnings are helping to fund any kind of Grey or Brown Hydrogen transportation future - whether it is via a hydrogen Toyota sedan or a hydrogen semi truck. It’s when we vote with our wallet that our vote matters most IMO.

 

[elasalle]

Macro is happy, I am happy ...
we are in a beat low expectations earning cycle

 

[Ogre]

US is in a severe recession. US consumers continue to spend $500 to $1000 on new iPhones. Something doesnt add up.

Apple has always been fairly recession proof. People will sacrifice a lot of things, but smartphones have been elevated from "Want" to "Need".

I wouldn't take Apple's results as any sort of metric of the health of the economy.