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I have only seen this from one source on the Twit. Supposedly part of Sen. Sinema's demands for Inflation Reduction Act support. Long thread, but with new bill attached (looooong bill).

takeaways:

Max credit $12,500
Base credit $4,000 if battery > 10 kWh
Additional $3,500 if battery > 40 kWh (2023-26), 50 kWk (2027-)
Additional $4,500 if final assembly in US by unionized labor
Additional $500 if battery manufactured in US (vague wording)

Income limits:
$500K joint
$375K head of household
$250K all others

EV price caps remain the same.

So looks like a Tesla that comes in under the price cap could get $8000.


What EVs actually made in US by unionized labor that meet price requirements.

Mach-e? No.
F-150? Think so.
Bolt? Think final assembly is.
ID.4? Not Union.
Lyriq? Think so
Blazer? Nope

Am I missing any?
 
Is the union thing for real? I don't see any news outlets talking about it. If you search by union on the bill there is not much about it other than this but I don't understand it lol:

Screenshot_20220805-081836.png


And this is funny. I guess Elon doesn't know they added the union thing....."if is real"

Screenshot_20220805-082947.png
 
if governments want to throw huge amounts of subsidies to get all car makers making more EVs than they would otherwise then that is a very good thing regardless of who is making the EV.

subsidies work - look at Norway.

'subsidies work - look at Norway' ....................hmmm. Be careful - such gross generalizations can be dangerous, and they can be very expensive to people and Planet. Any subsidy is only as beneficial as the language that is in it. And I am anxious to hear how you feel the specific language in this bill mirrors the specific language and the specific intentions of Norway's subsidies. That comparison has been thrown around loosely for too long. This is the US. Our subsidies (from both sides of the aisle) have a long history of needing to be looked at with a very critical eye. Arguably some can be good. But many don't pass the sniff test, nor are they ultimately any benefit to the environment - such as the massive farm bill subsidies that will 'feed the world', and simply lead to covering the planet with Round Up IMO. Or any of the previous auto bailouts - including the Cash for Clunkers program, which ultimately provided little more than a path for those ICE mfg's to walk away from their most efficient vehicles and then continue to survive on pickups and SUV's at the expense of the US taxpayer. That subsidy didn't end up benefiting the Planet, yet we were told it would. Not really much different than GM buying back and then destroying all their original EV's. Perhaps you don't mind this administration laying the very foundation for this bill by trying with significant effort to convince the world that 'Mary led' the EV revolution while they refused to even recognize Tesla's efforts, or recognize that it was Tesla - not GM - that was the most efficient and effective auto manufacturer in the US, and that it was Tesla that was growing these most efficient and effective American jobs at an unprecedented rate. And perhaps you don't mind subsidies for hydrogen produced from coal and natural gas in this bill - or maybe you feel those converted fossil fuel sources are just fine for the Planet. That's your choice. But for the rest of us that have watched something uncomfortably unfold from a Tesla and Planet perspective, please share with us how this bill's language and this administration's efforts are similar to Norway's efforts.

When Elon said that the Earth will be OK last night, he wasn't referencing this bill as the path to salvation. He has been pretty clear about his views on this subsidy too.
 
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Is the union thing for real? I don't see any news outlets talking about it. If you search by union on the bill there is not much about it other than this but I don't understand it lol:

View attachment 837012
‘(4) DOMESTIC ASSEMBLY.—In the case of a new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle which satisfies the domestic assembly qualifications, the amount determined under this paragraph is $4,500.

1) DOMESTIC ASSEMBLY QUALIFICATIONS.— The term ‘domestic assembly qualifications’ means, with respect to any new qualified plug-in electric vehicle, that the final assembly of such vehicle occurs at a plant, factory, or other place which is located in the United States and operating under a collective bargaining agreement negotiated by an employee or ganization (as defined in section 412(c)(4)), determined in a manner consistent with section 7701(a)(46).
 
Note to self: the next time the daily number of stocks in Nasdaq hitting 52 week lows reached 1700 , use some of that money saved for a rainy day to trade short term.

Secondly, the market may not be out of the woods yet even when that number reaches 0. Example: for Jan 2 and twice in late March-early April, they have been great time to short the market, not saying anything about today.


23376C22-02CD-4625-98BB-54426A94AC8E.jpeg
 
‘(4) DOMESTIC ASSEMBLY.—In the case of a new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle which satisfies the domestic assembly qualifications, the amount determined under this paragraph is $4,500.

1) DOMESTIC ASSEMBLY QUALIFICATIONS.— The term ‘domestic assembly qualifications’ means, with respect to any new qualified plug-in electric vehicle, that the final assembly of such vehicle occurs at a plant, factory, or other place which is located in the United States and operating under a collective bargaining agreement negotiated by an employee or ganization (as defined in section 412(c)(4)), determined in a manner consistent with section 7701(a)(46).
As per Artful Dodger, I don't understand how Manchin would sign off on this. He was very clearly against it previously. Democrats trying to ram it through and hope he doesn't squawk?
 
Jobreport 528K jobs in July vs expectations of 255K unemployment rate 3.6%
SO this jobs report is bad because it is too strong and indicates possible wage inflation and continued overall inflation necessitating further interest rates hikes by a hawkish FED.

BUT if it had been weaker then expectations it would have been bad because jobs is the only reason you cannot say US is not in a recession right now so it would mean big recession coming, which is way worse even if the FED cooled it on the hikes because inflation still a thing.

AND if it had come in exactly as expected it would have been bad because so many forecasters would have fallen over in shock over the fact that that their predictions were on the money that there would have been a spike in emergency health care usage and a corresponding spike in demand inflation.
 
SO this jobs report is bad because it is too strong and indicates possible wage inflation and continued overall inflation necessitating further interest rates hikes by a hawkish FED.

BUT if it had been weaker then expectations it would have been bad because jobs is the only reason you cannot say US is not in a recession right now so it would mean big recession coming, which is way worse even if the FED cooled it on the hikes because inflation still a thing.

AND if it had come in exactly as expected it would have been bad because so many forecasters would have fallen over in shock over the fact that that their predictions were on the money that there would have been a spike in emergency health care usage and a corresponding spike in demand inflation.
But of course Gas Prices, and therefore transportation costs, have dropped $1 per gallon (25%) and Elon himself also saying that commodities for EV production are dropping so looks like inflation is waning.
 
Yah, pick Canada for one Elon. Think of your roots!

Elon lived in Canada from June '89 to '95 before moving the the US.
Born in raised in South Africa.

EDIT: @wipster, sure, with 10 - 12 GFs, need at least one on each continent. It'll happen.

I doubt it, Canada isn’t really competitive anymore for auto manufacturing in North America, mostly because of Dutch disease.

Automakers have been abandoning Canada in droves, with production plunging from 2.5m a ~decade ago to likely under 1m this year.

I’d bet on Nashville area for a second North American Gigafactory, and Spain for second European, just cause that’s where most of the future demand for stationary storage will be (Spain is basically the only European country that doesn’t have terrible solar resources)
 
Other brands don't have the hardware needed to match what Tesla can do for a "Waymo on steroids" implementation.

Think about it. Suddenly we wake up one day and 3 million cars have this ability.
I said "Waymo on steroids". I meant "Waze on steroids". "Waze on steroids" is what Elon was talking about.

And the more I think about it, the more I think it's a really big deal.

Most people understand what Waze is. Tesla will be the first brand that builds this into the car rather than having to use it through your phone. Plus, Tesla's version will do a lot more than what Waze can do. Users don't have to explicitly report things like speed traps. The car will just see it and report it automatically.

This is something ordinary consumers understand. Even those who know little about what Tesla offers will come to know, "Tesla has Waze functionality built in, and it's waaaaaay better."

Plus it's something no other car can possibly match because other cars don't have the AI hardware.
 
I doubt it, Canada isn’t really competitive anymore for auto manufacturing in North America, mostly because of Dutch disease.

Automakers have been abandoning Canada in droves, with production plunging from 2.5m a ~decade ago to likely under 1m this year.

I’d bet on Nashville area for a second North American Gigafactory, and Spain for second European, just cause that’s where most of the future demand for stationary storage will be (Spain is basically the only European country that doesn’t have terrible solar resources)
Spain makes complete sense in terms of natural resources but is very challenging regarding employment and trade union laws, working time directives etc. And high chance of political interference in operations, coupled with low productivity for factories/industry (down to constant strikes, go-slows and factories just being closed a lot of the time...)

Still might be possible as Germany also have strict employment laws, so if they can make that work...
 
Why is premarket so unhappy??
It isn't that it is unhappy, it is just that the players haven't quite worked their way through all the youtube videos about the meeting before making any moves on the trading floor.

So, the trading so far this morning is most likely the result of cats and dogs walking across keyboards. 😉

Just one more reason why the market can remain irrational longer than a short-term trader can remain financially solvent.
 
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Inflation Reduction Act adjusts like the Solar Tax Credit back at 30% effective January 1 2022. Battery Storage included and credit made refundable after December 31 2023.

EV credit made refundable. I also think that it is retroactive to January 1 2022 at the previous $7500 level. 2 and 3 wheel vehicles get tax credit of 30% max $7500 with 2.5kwhh battery or larger. Think used car credit is now $2000
 
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I get his opportunity. Didn't Sandy used to work for Ford at one time? So there's history and respect there. Obviously they couldn't get into some wide open potholes, so likely agreements were made, it's all good. It was definitely several notches above GM interviews I've seen.
Monroe Channel is shifting to monetise their channel, but content is still ok. As far as EV making, all big participants will make decent EV but as Elon stated Tesla’s edge will remain on manufacturing prowess, if someone makes a cool EV and loose ton of money, wall street love for that company will fade fast, Lucid.