Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

And the finale of the week played out just like MM's wanted. Macro market down. TSLA continues it's underperformance for the week. Now down almost 3X the Nasdaq and it's not like high growth names are being taken to the woodshed Practically all of big tech isn't down more than 1% and I'm tracking many different high growth names with zero earnings that are doing much better than TSLA today

And TSLA ends the week at either 899 or 901.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My mind is been in a constant state of blown at seeing Amazon climb, day after day, for weeks. For seamingly no reason and with a valuation that makes zero sense.

Meanwhile, you have TSLA that is going to announce their split likely over the week that down more than TSLA (and more than it's beta today). Just unreal.

Amazon owns the entire end-to-end retail platform for the #1 consumer country in the world. They're building our a nationwide delivery network, soon all EV. That's going to make a lot of money at some point.

Revenue is 10x Tesla. IMO they deserve their multiple, just on size and scope of potential profits. The problem is that TSLA does not deserve theirs.

 

[ZachF]

My mind is been in a constant state of blown at seeing Amazon climb, day after day, for weeks. For seamingly no reason and with a valuation that makes zero sense.

Meanwhile, you have TSLA that is going to announce their split likely over the week that down more than TSLA (and more than it's beta today). Just unreal.

Honestly, even if Amazon dropped by half it would still be comically overvalued.

AWS carries the entire enterprise, and they are soon going to be spending an *absolute fortune* building a Starlink competitor using expendable rockets ()

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And the finale of the week played out just like MM's wanted. Macro market down. TSLA continues it's underperformance for the week. Now down almost 3X the macro. And TSLA ends the week at either 899 or 901.

It's 9:53. Give it a minute!

 

[henchman24]

The US is probably over the worst of it, but Europe will likely have a very rough winter, and China’s bursting property bubble is probably the largest property bubble in human civilization.

IMO Too early to say on any of this. We can see the US isn't in recession right now, but that's about al we can really say.

I don’t see how the cpi number next week doesn’t come in as a massive drop. And then we’ve seen costs and prices continue dropping considerably in Aug. So by the time the Fed has another meeting, we’ll have 2 straight months of rapidly dropping inflation. All while the economy is doing just fine.

Seems to be this is the best of both worlds and that the Fed did in fact, make a soft landing…….despite every analyst under the sun screaming that we’re in for the mother of all hard landings

We've been expecting a drop for months now and it hasn't quite cooled (core is down slightly but top line has been very high). A massive drop seems pretty unlikely in July, but if it happened, it would be a great sign and the Fed may have pulled it off. Market will have to see the evidence before pricing it in though.

Also important to remember that the Fed's goal is 2% and they intend to get to that over the next year/year and a half. So even if we get a good sign on the top line and it goes to say ~5.5% and then hovers there for the next two reports... the Fed won't be done raising rates.

I think we will show a drop, but how much and where it ends in Sept will be important to the strategy they employ. It is possible that even with good reports, we still see a raise in Sept.

 

[2daMoon]

And the finale of the week played out just like MM's wanted. Macro market down. TSLA continues it's underperformance for the week. Now down almost 3X the macro. And TSLA ends the week at either 899 or 901.

Good on ya!

Hopefully, Murphy is paying attention and will take the bait.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's 9:53. Give it a minute!

TSLA's underperformance is getting worse by the minute

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

IMO Too early to say on any of this. We can see the US isn't in recession right now, but that's about al we can really say.



We've been expecting a drop for months now and it hasn't quite cooled (core is down slightly but top line has been very high). A massive drop seems pretty unlikely in July, but if it happened, it would be a great sign and the Fed may have pulled it off. Market will have to see the evidence before pricing it in though.

Also important to remember that the Fed's goal is 2% and they intend to get to that over the next year/year and a half. So even if we get a good sign on the top line and it goes to say ~5.5% and then hovers there for the next two reports... the Fed won't be done raising rates.

I think we will show a drop, but how much and where it ends in Sept will be important to the strategy they employ. It is possible that even with good reports, we still see a raise in Sept.

If the July CPI number doesn't come in with a significant drop, then I'm not sure anyone can trust the number or how it's being calculated. You can't have practically all cost of goods drop in a month and not have the CPI come in materially lower. Same for Aug

 

[Drax7]

My mind is been in a constant state of blown at seeing Amazon climb, day after day, for weeks. For seamingly no reason and with a valuation that makes zero sense.

Meanwhile, you have TSLA that is going to announce their split likely over the week that down more than TSLA (and more than it's beta today). Just unreal.

One justification is that Amazon owns the internet retail mkt. That dominance is unassailable
as far as the eye can see. AWS is growing and profiting immensely.

Even Costco has a huge valuation with negligible profit margins (under 2%.).

 

[Big Time]

-3% after a split confirmation!

What can you expect from such a speculative company…..

 

[Usain]

Difference is no one is saying Amazon's competition will one day crush them. So we need some legacy autos filing for bankruptcies before Tesla gets their due.

Amazon Web Services definitely has strong competition. And AWS is over half of their operating income. AWS is in the lead now but that lead is by no means secure.

 

[Accident]

I imagine the price action today is the result of all the options gamma expiring today. Lots of calls were bought in the last few weeks that are now probably being closed. Maybe we'll see a recovery once dealers have closed their hedges.

 

[henchman24]

If the July CPI number doesn't come in with a significant drop, then I'm not sure anyone can trust the number or how it's being calculated. You can't have practically all cost of goods drop in a month and not have the CPI come in materially lower. Same for Aug

People have been saying that for years, just on the other side!

More or less my point is, we need both reports to be very good and show substantial improvement to keep the Fed from another large increase in Sept. Even moderate improvement when combined with other data gives the Fed more room to increase aggressively.

 

[bkp_duke]

I wasnt being critical. Was calculating out that currently on an annual basis 2600 out of 3 million are recycled. Could be gone bad, damaged in an accident, car being scrapped, etc.

I'm amazed that Tesla gets their hands on even 50 packs per week. Not when companies like EV West, Gruber Motors, etc. will buy up every pack they can get their hands on (these guys scour all the Copart, etc. auctions and buy anything total'd with an intact pack) for EV conversions, etc.

 

[Big Time]

DOW and S&P going green?

 

[Singuy]

Amazon Web Services definitely has strong competition. And AWS is over half of their operating income. AWS is in the lead now but that lead is by no means secure.

Amazon has competitors, just no one is talking about them. You know when people were talking about the big bad competition that will crush Amazon? 15 years ago when they pointed at Sears and all those retailers.

 

[jerry33]

Amazon Web Services definitely has strong competition. And AWS is over half of their operating income. AWS is in the lead now but that lead is by no means secure.

Isn't AWS mostly just spammers and scammers? My email thinks so.

 

[StealthP3D]

This needs clarification IMO. There is no mention of mileage. In the past, my memory is that packs were characterized in terms of mileage with a 2170 model 3 pack being 300,000 to 500,000 miles at an ~1% capacity fade per year.

People are taking Elon's comments about pack lifespan out of context and reading too much into it. The estimate was not for how many years a lightly used pack would last, it was Elon estimating the average age of packs that were recycled for the purpose of determining how much volume growth their battery recycling facility would have. Because Tesla didn't make all that many cars until they had ramped Model 3. Obviously, the average age includes high milage packs (those will be the first ones to hit the recycling center).

A lightly used pack could last an indeterminate number of years depending upon many factors including the temperatures it was "stored" at for much of its life. While cold weather use is hard on a pack, cold storage is not. There are a lot of factors involved so there will be a big variation in how many years a pack lasts when it has been lightly used. Some will last over 20 years. Elon was speaking of the approximate average age range of a pack at retirement so as to better model the volume ramp of battery recycling. Since cars average something like 12K/year, he was probably calculating from that, not estimating how long a pack would last if you didn't use it.

 

[Snerruc]

The dance on the ev bill isn’t over yet. Remember that the Dems only have 50 votes, so there are 48 more Senators who can hold up the bill to get something for their constituents. This could turn into the worst frankenbill of all time, at least til the next one.

 

[elasalle]

Added some Jan 24 1100 calls .... waiting for splits ville
If CPI is bad next week, will need to take losses/manage ...